Reds vs Cubs Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Oct 1

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 01, 2022, 3:31 PM
  • The Cubs (71-86) are -135 favorites vs the Reds (60-97)
  • Reds starting pitcher: Nicholas Lodolo (4-7), 3.75 ERA
  • Cubs starting pitcher: Todd Smyly (7-8), 3.48 ERA
  • Watch the game on MARQ

The Cincinnati Reds (+110) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (-135) on Saturday, October 1, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20pm EDT in Chicago.

The Cubs are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+170).

The Reds vs Cubs Over/Under is 6.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Reds are 60-97 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 79-78 ATS.

Reds vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Reds+1.5 -200O 6.5 -115+110
Cubs -1.5 +170U 6.5 -105-135

Reds vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Saturday‘s matchup with 58.9% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Cubs and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Cubs vs Reds and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Tyler Stephenson has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 away games (+10.65 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Joey Votto has hit the Runs Under in 30 of his last 41 away games (+10.30 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Mike Minor has hit the Pitching Outs Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+10.25 Units / 75% ROI)
  • Joey Votto has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+10.10 Units / 110% ROI)
  • Kyle Farmer has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+10.05 Units / 64% ROI)

Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Rafael Ortega has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 22 games at home (+17.05 Units / 67% ROI)
  • Ian Happ has hit the Total Bases Over in 35 of his last 54 games at home (+14.45 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Christopher Morel has hit the Singles Under in his last 12 games (+12.00 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Rafael Ortega has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 22 games at home (+11.80 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Rafael Ortega has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 23 games at home (+11.10 Units / 33% ROI)

Cubs vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Christopher Morel 0.5 +900 0.5 -10000
David Bote 0.5 +825 0.5 -5000
Franmil Reyes 0.5 +625 0.5 -1600
Ian Happ 0.5 +775 0.5 -3000
Nelson Velazquez 0.5 +825 0.5 -5000

Cubs vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Christopher Morel 0.5 +115 0.5 -165
David Bote 0.5 -115 0.5 -120
Franmil Reyes 0.5 -120 0.5 -115
Ian Happ 0.5 -165 0.5 +120
Nelson Velazquez 0.5 +115 0.5 -160

Cubs vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Christopher Morel 0.5 +360 0.5 -650
David Bote 0.5 +270 0.5 -450
Franmil Reyes 0.5 +230 0.5 -350
Ian Happ 0.5 +240 0.5 -375
Nelson Velazquez 0.5 +310 0.5 -550

Cubs vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Drew Smyly 5.5 +100 5.5 -140
Nick Lodolo 7.5 -115 7.5 -120
  • The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 71 of their last 129 games (+13.90 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 38 of their last 65 games (+12.70 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 19 games (+11.11 Units / 50% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 33 of their last 60 away games (+5.70 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.85 Units / 37% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 80 games (+18.90 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 47 of their last 80 games (+16.20 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 62 of their last 103 games (+15.95 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 17 games (+15.50 Units / 83% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 21 games (+10.00 Units / 44% ROI)

Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 73-84 against the Run Line (-19.7 Units / -10.11% ROI).

  • 60-97 when betting on the Moneyline for -21.2 Units / -12.63% ROI
  • 74-78 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.65 Units / -7.28% ROI
  • 78-74 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.8 Units / -2.2% ROI

Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 79-78 against the Run Line (-10.85 Units / -5.4% ROI).

  • 71-86 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.4 Units / -3.04% ROI
  • 63-81 when betting on the total runs Over for -26.15 Units / -15.11% ROI
  • 81-63 when betting on the total runs Under for +12.05 Units / 6.97% ROI

Nick Lodolo has allowed a slugging percentage of .761 (35 Total Bases / 46 ABs) on low fastballs this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 78 total IP; League Avg: .427 — first Percentile.

Nick Lodolo has not allowed a hit in the first inning in any of his last seven games dating back to August 23rd — this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.

Opponents have a swing rate of just 30% (105/348) against Nick Lodolo on inside fastballs this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 78 total IP; League Avg: 50% — 0 Percentile.

Nick Lodolo has thrown inside pitches 46% of the time (244/529) with two-strikes this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 78 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 99th Percentile.

Todd Smyly: Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Drew Smyly has thrown his curveball 37% of the time (956/2,605) in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 159 total CB; League Avg: 15% — 99th Percentile.

Drew Smyly has had third base stolen on him 4 times this season — tied for 2nd most in MLB — 99th Percentile.

20 of Drew Smyly’s 69 breaking pitch strikeouts (29%) have been backdoor this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 78 total IP; League Avg: 13% — 97th Percentile.

Drew Smyly has thrown his curveball 45% of the time (1,303/2,890) against right-handed batters since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 159 total CB; League Avg: 15% — 100th Percentile.

Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs

The Reds are just 11-74 (.129) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .197.

The Reds are just 43-9 (.827) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .882.

The Reds are just 22-80 (.216) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.

The Reds are 11-7 (.611) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Reds

The Cubs are just 11-14 (.440) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Cubs are just 9-41 (.180) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .274.

The Cubs are just 13-43 (.232) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .294.

The Cubs are just 19-106 (.152) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .266.

Reds hitters are slugging just .482 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .560.

The Reds are batting just .298 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .335.

Reds hitters are slugging just .208 on the first pitch of at-bats over the last 14 days (13 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .553.

Reds hitters are slugging just .369 against RHP this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .394.

The Cubs are batting just .154 with two-strikes since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.

Cubs hitters have grounded into 52 double plays in 381 opportunities (14%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Cubs hitters have 2,226 strikeouts in 8,760 PA’s (25%) against RHP since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

The Cubs are batting .369 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .335.

Reds pitchers have walked 1,204 of 12,229 batters (10%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .276 against Reds pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .238.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .297 against Reds pitchers with runners on base this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .247.

Reds pitchers have walked 125 of 1,384 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 15% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.

Cubs pitchers have walked 1,123 of 12,190 batters (9%) since the start of last season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 41% of their games this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Cubs pitchers have won only 19% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.

Cubs vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Kyle Hendricks (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
  • Nicklaus Madrigal (Cubs): Groin, D10
  • Bradley Wieck (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Steven Brault (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
  • Rafael Ortega (Cubs): Finger, D60
  • Justin Steele (Cubs): Undisclosed, D15
  • Alec Mills (Cubs): Back, D60
  • Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
  • Jason Heyward (Cubs): Knee, D60
  • Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
  • Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D60
  • Robert Dugger (Reds): Shoulder, D15
  • Jeffrey Hoffman (Reds): Forearm, D60
  • Aramis Garcia (Reds): Finger, D60
  • Tyler Stephenson (Reds): Clavicle, D60
  • Nicholas Senzel (Reds): Toe, D60
  • Arthur Warren (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Justin Wilson (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Forearm, D60
  • Michael Minor (Reds): Shoulder, D15
  • Joseph Votto (Reds): Rotator Cuff, D60
  • Michael Moustakas (Reds): Calf, D60
  • Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.