- The Cubs (71-86) are -135 favorites vs the Reds (60-97)
- Reds starting pitcher: Nicholas Lodolo (4-7), 3.75 ERA
- Cubs starting pitcher: Todd Smyly (7-8), 3.48 ERA
- Watch the game on MARQ
The Cincinnati Reds (+110) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (-135) on Saturday, October 1, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20pm EDT in Chicago.
The Cubs are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+170).
The Reds vs Cubs Over/Under is 6.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Reds are 60-97 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 79-78 ATS.
Reds vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | +1.5 -200 | O 6.5 -115 | +110 |
| Cubs | -1.5 +170 | U 6.5 -105 | -135 |
Reds vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Saturday‘s matchup with 58.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Cubs and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Tyler Stephenson has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 away games (+10.65 Units / 25% ROI)
- Joey Votto has hit the Runs Under in 30 of his last 41 away games (+10.30 Units / 14% ROI)
- Mike Minor has hit the Pitching Outs Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+10.25 Units / 75% ROI)
- Joey Votto has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+10.10 Units / 110% ROI)
- Kyle Farmer has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+10.05 Units / 64% ROI)
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Rafael Ortega has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 22 games at home (+17.05 Units / 67% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Total Bases Over in 35 of his last 54 games at home (+14.45 Units / 19% ROI)
- Christopher Morel has hit the Singles Under in his last 12 games (+12.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- Rafael Ortega has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 22 games at home (+11.80 Units / 32% ROI)
- Rafael Ortega has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 23 games at home (+11.10 Units / 33% ROI)
Cubs vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +900 | 0.5 -10000 |
| David Bote | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Franmil Reyes | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Ian Happ | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Nelson Velazquez | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
Cubs vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -165 |
| David Bote | 0.5 -115 | 0.5 -120 |
| Franmil Reyes | 0.5 -120 | 0.5 -115 |
| Ian Happ | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +120 |
| Nelson Velazquez | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -160 |
Cubs vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
| David Bote | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -450 |
| Franmil Reyes | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Ian Happ | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -375 |
| Nelson Velazquez | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -550 |
Cubs vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Drew Smyly | 5.5 +100 | 5.5 -140 |
| Nick Lodolo | 7.5 -115 | 7.5 -120 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Reds Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 71 of their last 129 games (+13.90 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 38 of their last 65 games (+12.70 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 19 games (+11.11 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 33 of their last 60 away games (+5.70 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.85 Units / 37% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Cubs: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 80 games (+18.90 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 47 of their last 80 games (+16.20 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 62 of their last 103 games (+15.95 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 17 games (+15.50 Units / 83% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 21 games (+10.00 Units / 44% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 73-84 against the Run Line (-19.7 Units / -10.11% ROI).
- 60-97 when betting on the Moneyline for -21.2 Units / -12.63% ROI
- 74-78 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.65 Units / -7.28% ROI
- 78-74 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.8 Units / -2.2% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 79-78 against the Run Line (-10.85 Units / -5.4% ROI).
- 71-86 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.4 Units / -3.04% ROI
- 63-81 when betting on the total runs Over for -26.15 Units / -15.11% ROI
- 81-63 when betting on the total runs Under for +12.05 Units / 6.97% ROI
Nicholas Lodolo: Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Nick Lodolo has allowed a slugging percentage of .761 (35 Total Bases / 46 ABs) on low fastballs this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 78 total IP; League Avg: .427 — first Percentile.
Nick Lodolo has not allowed a hit in the first inning in any of his last seven games dating back to August 23rd — this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 30% (105/348) against Nick Lodolo on inside fastballs this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 78 total IP; League Avg: 50% — 0 Percentile.
Nick Lodolo has thrown inside pitches 46% of the time (244/529) with two-strikes this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 78 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 99th Percentile.
Todd Smyly: Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Drew Smyly has thrown his curveball 37% of the time (956/2,605) in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 159 total CB; League Avg: 15% — 99th Percentile.
Drew Smyly has had third base stolen on him 4 times this season — tied for 2nd most in MLB — 99th Percentile.
20 of Drew Smyly’s 69 breaking pitch strikeouts (29%) have been backdoor this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 78 total IP; League Avg: 13% — 97th Percentile.
Drew Smyly has thrown his curveball 45% of the time (1,303/2,890) against right-handed batters since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 159 total CB; League Avg: 15% — 100th Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Reds are just 11-74 (.129) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .197.
The Reds are just 43-9 (.827) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .882.
The Reds are just 22-80 (.216) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.
The Reds are 11-7 (.611) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Cubs are just 11-14 (.440) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cubs are just 9-41 (.180) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .274.
The Cubs are just 13-43 (.232) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .294.
The Cubs are just 19-106 (.152) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .266.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters are slugging just .482 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .560.
The Reds are batting just .298 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .335.
Reds hitters are slugging just .208 on the first pitch of at-bats over the last 14 days (13 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .553.
Reds hitters are slugging just .369 against RHP this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .394.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
The Cubs are batting just .154 with two-strikes since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Cubs hitters have grounded into 52 double plays in 381 opportunities (14%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Cubs hitters have 2,226 strikeouts in 8,760 PA’s (25%) against RHP since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Cubs are batting .369 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .335.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Reds pitchers have walked 1,204 of 12,229 batters (10%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .276 against Reds pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .238.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .297 against Reds pitchers with runners on base this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Reds pitchers have walked 125 of 1,384 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 15% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.
Cubs pitchers have walked 1,123 of 12,190 batters (9%) since the start of last season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 41% of their games this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Cubs pitchers have won only 19% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Cubs vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Kyle Hendricks (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Nicklaus Madrigal (Cubs): Groin, D10
- Bradley Wieck (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Steven Brault (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
- Rafael Ortega (Cubs): Finger, D60
- Justin Steele (Cubs): Undisclosed, D15
- Alec Mills (Cubs): Back, D60
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Jason Heyward (Cubs): Knee, D60
- Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
- Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D60
- Robert Dugger (Reds): Shoulder, D15
- Jeffrey Hoffman (Reds): Forearm, D60
- Aramis Garcia (Reds): Finger, D60
- Tyler Stephenson (Reds): Clavicle, D60
- Nicholas Senzel (Reds): Toe, D60
- Arthur Warren (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Justin Wilson (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Forearm, D60
- Michael Minor (Reds): Shoulder, D15
- Joseph Votto (Reds): Rotator Cuff, D60
- Michael Moustakas (Reds): Calf, D60
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D15
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