- The Padres are -145 favorites vs the Reds
- Reds vs Padres Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Reds / Padres TV Channel: BSOH | PDTV
The Cincinnati Reds (+120) visit Petco Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-145) on Tuesday, April 30, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in San Diego, CA.
This season, the Reds are 15-13 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 14-17 ATS.
Reds vs Padres Starting Pitchers Today:
- Reds starting pitcher: Nick Martinez 0-1, 5.48 ERA
- Padres starting pitcher: Yu Darvish 0-1, 4.19 ERA
Reds vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | +1.5 -175 | O 7.5 -110 | +120 |
| Padres | -1.5 +145 | U 7.5 -110 | -145 |
Reds vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 52.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 19 games (+18.40 Units / 97% ROI)
- Santiago Espinal has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 19 games (+11.45 Units / 55% ROI)
- Santiago Espinal has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 19 games (+10.25 Units / 47% ROI)
- Jake Fraley has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+9.50 Units / 79% ROI)
- Spencer Steer has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 11 of his last 14 games (+8.10 Units / 50% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 games at home (+15.40 Units / 192% ROI)
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Runs Under in his last 13 games (+13.00 Units / 56% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the RBIs Under in his last 12 games at home (+12.00 Units / 53% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 17 games (+12.00 Units / 33% ROI)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+11.20 Units / 68% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 41 of their last 67 away games (+23.65 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 70 of their last 114 games (+17.90 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 72 games (+16.80 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Over in 41 of their last 65 away games (+14.05 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 18 away games (+4.93 Units / 22% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 39 of their last 65 games at home (+13.80 Units / 20% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 55 games at home (+12.50 Units / 21% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 27 games (+12.45 Units / 30% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 16 games (+8.80 Units / 33% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.09 Units / 36% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 16-12 against the Run Line (+3.6 Units / 9.92% ROI).
- 15-13 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.8 Units / 2.32% ROI
- 15-12 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.55 Units / 5.02% ROI
- 12-15 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.7 Units / -15.28% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 14-17 against the Run Line (-1.25 Units / -3.47% ROI).
- 14-17 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.95 Units / -12.87% ROI
- 16-14 when betting on the total runs Over for +1 Units / 2.99% ROI
- 14-16 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.85 Units / -11.08% ROI
Padres vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Will Benson (CIN) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
Padres vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Jurickson Profar (SD) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Padres vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Padres vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 66% (55/83) against Nick Martinez’s curve and slider since the 2022 season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 42% — 100th Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 35% of Nick Martinez’s breaking pitches (236/667) since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 47% — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .412 (14-for-34) against Nick Martinez on low fastballs since last season — 8th highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .269 — sixth Percentile.
Nick Martinez has a strikeout rate of just 17% (49 SO in 281 PAs) with runners in scoring position since the 2022 season — tied for 13th lowest among among 133 qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 24% — 10th Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 24% (6/25) against Yu Darvish in two-strike counts this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: 45% — first Percentile.
Yu Darvish has thrown his slider 48% of the time (257/536) when he’s behind in the count since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 75 total SL; League Avg: 19% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of 72% (23/32) against Yu Darvish on fastballs this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: 46% — first Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 26% (9/35) against Yu Darvish this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: 42% — second Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Reds are just 44-48 (.478) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .637.
The Reds are just 44-19 (.698) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .796.
The Reds are just 23-25 (.479) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .589.
The Reds are just 56-40 (.583) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .698.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Padres are just 4-16 (.200) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .424.
The Padres are just 4-76 (.050) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .101.
The Padres are just 7-134 (.050) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .094.
The Padres are just 83-14 (.856) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .899.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds are batting just .124 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .167.
Reds hitters have drawn 44 walks in 359 PA’s (12%) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Reds hitters have a swing rate of just 45% against LHP since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Reds hitters have an OBP of just .220 (588 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 45% against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
The Padres are just 4-16 (-60.6% ROI) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 45% against LHP since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Padres hitters are slugging .447 against LHP since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .414.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .300 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .253.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .302 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .258.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .314 against Reds pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
The Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.9 MPH in the 2023 season (3,921 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (3,921 batted balls) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
The Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.1 MPH since last season (4,669 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .194 against Padres pitchers with the shift since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .231.
Padres vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Glenn Otto (San Diego Padres): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Reiss Knehr (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Drew Carlton (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Luis Patino (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Tucupita Marcano (San Diego Padres): Knee, 10-Day IL
- Austin Wynns (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- Sam Moll (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Noelvi Marte (Cincinnati Reds): Suspension, Suspension
- Matt McLain (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Joey Votto (Cincinnati Reds): Ankle, Out
- Nick Lodolo (Cincinnati Reds): Calf, 15-Day IL
- TJ Friedl (Cincinnati Reds): Wrist, 10-Day IL
- Reiver Sanmartin (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
- Alex Young (Cincinnati Reds): Back, 15-Day IL
- Ian Gibaut (Cincinnati Reds): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Brandon Williamson (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Connor Overton (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
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