The offseason became much more interesting once it was announced that Roki Sasaki intends to make the leap from NPB to MLB in 2025.
In addition to the Juan Soto next team odds sweepstakes, teams will be fighting for their chance to land the 23-year-old Japanese ace this winter.
Sasaki will be much cheaper because he’s leaving before turning 25, meaning he’s too young to sign anything other than a contract from a team’s international bonus pool – like Shohei Ohtani did in 2017, inking a deal with the Los Angeles Angels.
But which MLB team will land Sasaki? Here’s a look at the top candidates and my pick to sign the star pitcher:
MLB 2024 International Bonus Pool
According to the Associated Press, here are the teams with the highest remaining allotment of their international signing bonus pools for 2024 as of Oct. 21.
- Los Angeles Dodgers $2,502,500
- Baltimore Orioles $2,147,300
- New York Yankees $1,487,200
- San Francisco Giants $1,247,500
- Boston Red Sox $990,000
It’s important to note that this international signing period runs until Dec. 15. These teams likely have the best chance to land Sasaki if the Chiba Lotte Marines post him before then, though MLB teams can trade for more money.
When a player enters the posting system, he has a 45-day window to sign with an MLB team.
The 2025 international signing period begins on Jan. 15, which could lead to a bigger payday for Sasaki as more teams have their full bonus pools available.
It’s unclear when Sasaki will be posted, but he’s already forfeiting a lot of money by not waiting two more years when he’s eligible to be an MLB free agent. Yoshinobu Yamamoto signed a 12-year, $325 million contract with the Dodgers as a 26-year-old free agent last winter.
Roki Sasaki Next Team Odds: Dodgers Favored to Land SP
The BetMGM online sportsbook doesn’t offer a betting market for Sasaki’s next team, but it’s reasonable to suggest the Dodgers are the favorites to sign the talented right-hander.
Not only do the Dodgers conveniently have the most money left to give him, but they also have an enticing infrastructure to recruit him.
The Dodgers have Yamamoto and Ohtani on their roster, which has led to a massive following in Japan and could help ease Sasaki’s transition to a new country. Los Angeles is closer to Japan and will begin the 2025 season in Tokoyo against the Chicago Cubs.
The Dodgers are also a good baseball team. They are coming off a World Series victory and have won 100-plus games in four of their past five full seasons. They haven’t missed the playoffs since 2012.
The San Diego Padres are believed to be the strongest contender to the Dodgers in the Sasaki sweepstakes. The Padres have Yu Darvish and have emerged as a genuine rival to the Dodgers of late, having two opportunities to eliminate them in the 2024 NLDS.
From a rooting interest, I would love for Sasaki to sign with the Baltimore Orioles, who have the second-most money in the international pool. They are motivated to go for it with a young core coming off consecutive postseason appearances without a victory.
But I’m skeptical that Sasaki will sign with anyone other than the Dodgers in 2024 or 2025.
Roki Sasaki’s Next Team Prediction: Dodgers
Roki Sasaki NPB Stats
- Seasons: 4
- Record: 29-15
- ERA: 2.10
- Strikeouts: 505
- Walks: 88
- Innings pitched: 394 2/3
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