- The – are favorites vs the –
- Royals starting pitcher: Jonathan Bowlan
- Tigers starting pitcher: Tarik Skubal
- Watch the game on BSDET
The Kansas City Royals () visit Comerica Park to take on the Detroit Tigers () on Thursday, September 28, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm EDT in Detroit.
The – are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at ().
The Royals vs Tigers Over/Under is total runs for the game.
This season, the Royals are 54-103 against the spread (ATS), while the Tigers are 83-74 ATS.
Royals vs. Tigers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Royals | O | ||
| Tigers | U |
Royals vs Tigers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Tigers will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 51.2% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Royals and Tigers and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jordan Lyles has hit the Earned Runs Over in 23 of his last 29 games (+15.10 Units / 37% ROI)
- Maikel Garcia has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 15 away games (+12.25 Units / 48% ROI)
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Runs Over in 24 of his last 37 games (+10.30 Units / 26% ROI)
- MJ Melendez has hit the RBIs Under in 15 of his last 17 away games (+10.15 Units / 25% ROI)
- Nelson Velazquez has hit the Singles Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 58% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Tigers players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Tigers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Kerry Carpenter has hit the Singles Over in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+14.95 Units / 56% ROI)
- Kerry Carpenter has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 25 games at home (+12.35 Units / 22% ROI)
- Matt Vierling has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 14 games (+10.90 Units / 45% ROI)
- Zach McKinstry has hit the Runs Under in 30 of his last 41 games (+9.55 Units / 12% ROI)
- Zach McKinstry has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 22 games (+8.65 Units / 29% ROI)
Tigers vs Royals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Miguel Cabrera | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
Tigers vs Royals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andy Ibanez | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Javier Baez | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Edward Olivares | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Miguel Cabrera | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Spencer Torkelson | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
Tigers vs Royals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Miguel Cabrera | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Tigers vs Royals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tarik Skubal | 6.5 -120 | 6.5 -110 |
| Tarik Skubal | 7.5 -105 | 7.5 -125 |
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 12 games (+13.75 Units / 115% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 12 games (+12.08 Units / 99% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 54 games (+9.30 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 12 games (+8.77 Units / 65% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.90 Units / 53% ROI)
Tigers Best Bets Today:
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 72 of their last 146 games (+13.00 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 45 of their last 91 games (+10.68 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Under in 40 of their last 70 games (+10.65 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 12 of their last 15 games (+10.14 Units / 63% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 16 games (+9.01 Units / 51% ROI)
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 70-87 against the Run Line (-30.05 Units / -15.91% ROI).
- 54-103 when betting on the Moneyline for -26.5 Units / -16.23% ROI
- 77-74 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.6 Units / -3.22% ROI
- 74-77 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.7 Units / -6.24% ROI
Tigers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Tigers have gone 83-74 against the Run Line (-1 Units / -0.51% ROI).
- 74-83 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.4 Units / 4.86% ROI
- 75-76 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.55 Units / -5.46% ROI
- 76-75 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.5 Units / -3.22% ROI
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .155 (23-for-148) against Cole Ragans’ changeup since last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 127 total IP; League Avg: .238 — 98th Percentile.
Cole Ragans has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 80.8 MPH on changeups since last season (110 balls in play) — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 127 total IP; League Avg: 86.3
Cole Ragans has allowed a slugging percentage of just .310 (100 Total Bases / 323 ABs) this season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 62 total IP; League Avg: .423 — 98th Percentile.
Cole Ragans has allowed an OPS of just .595 (365 PA’s) this season — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 62 total IP; League Avg: .737 — 97th Percentile.
Tigers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Sawyer Gipson-Long has a first-pitch strike rate of 71% (15/21) over the past seven days (1 games) — 9th highest in AL over the last week; League Avg: 63% — 84th Percentile.
Sawyer Gipson-Long has walked 3 of 21 batters (14%) over the past seven days (1 games) — 7th highest in AL over the last week; League Avg: 7% — 13th Percentile.
Sawyer Gipson-Long has a strike rate of just 58% (52/89) over the past seven days (1 games) — 4th lowest in AL over the last week; League Avg: 65% — seventh Percentile.
Sawyer Gipson-Long had a strike rate of just 58% (52/89) — 6th lowest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 65% — fifth Percentile.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Tigers
The Royals are just 11-83 (.117) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .364.
The Royals are just 35-29 (.547) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .735.
The Royals are just 17-12 (.586) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .792.
The Royals are just 16-38 (.296) after a road win since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .495.
Tigers Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Tigers are 30-9 (.769) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .610.
The Tigers are just 20-125 (.138) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .208.
The Tigers are just 8-14 (.364) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Tigers are just 29-71 (.290) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .364.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Royals have a winning percentage of just 31% on the road since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
The Royals have won just 52% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings on the road since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 72%.
Royals hitters have an OBP of just .283 (2,891 PA’s) on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
The Royals are batting just .212 with two outs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .237.
Tigers Hitting Stats & Trends
Tigers hitters have an OPS of just .640 (8,897 PA’s) against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .718.
Tigers hitters have an OBP of just .288 (8,897 PA’s) against RHP since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .315.
Tigers hitters are slugging just .351 against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .403.
Tigers hitters have an OPS of just .655 (11,755 PA’s) since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .721.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
Royals pitchers have picked-off 17 runners from first base this season — best in MLB.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% with runners in scoring position since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Royals pitchers since last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Royals have won just 19% of games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 33%.
Tigers Pitching Stats & Trends
The Tigers pitchers have allowed the 29th hardest ball in play hit (119.5 MPH) this season (; League Avg: 117.2).
Tigers pitchers have an ERA of 3.03 (419.0 IP) against division opponents this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.31.
The Tigers have won just 25% of games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 33%.
Tigers pitchers have won only 16% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Tigers vs. Royals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Alexander Faedo (Tigers): Finger, D15
- Casey Mize (Tigers): Elbow, D60
- Mason Englert (Tigers): Hip, D15
- Austin Meadows (Tigers): Anxiety, D60
- Andrew Vasquez (Tigers): Calf, D15
- Riley Greene (Tigers): Elbow, D60
- Tyler Alexander (Tigers): Shoulder, D60
- Freddy Pacheco (Tigers): Elbow, D60
- Matthew Manning (Tigers): Foot, D15
- Matthew Boyd (Tigers): Elbow, D60
- Daniel A. Lynch (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Brad Keller (Royals): Thoracic Outlet Syndrome, D15
- Vincent Pasquantino (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Kristofer Bubic (Royals): Flexor, D60
- John McMillon (Royals): Forearm, D15
- Jacob Brentz (Royals): Elbow, D60
- Brady Singer (Royals): Lumbar Strain, D15
- Freddy Fermin (Royals): Finger, D60
- Joshua Staumont (Royals): Neck, D60
- Austin Cox (Royals): Knee, D60
- Josh Taylor (Royals): Shoulder, D60
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