- The Orioles are -140 favorites vs the Twins
- Twins vs Orioles Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Twins / Orioles TV Channel: MAS2 | TWTV | MLBN
The Minnesota Twins (+115) visit Oriole Park at Camden Yards to take on the Baltimore Orioles (-135) on Thursday, May 15, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 12:35pm EDT in Baltimore, MD.
This season, the Twins are 23-20 against the spread (ATS), while the Orioles are 14-27 ATS.
Twins vs Orioles Starting Pitchers Today:
- Twins starting pitcher: Chris Paddack 1-3, 4.77 ERA
- Orioles starting pitcher: Tomoyuki Sugano 4-2, 2.72 ERA
Twins vs. Orioles Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | +1.5 -175 | O 9 -102 | +115 |
| Orioles | -1.5 +145 | U 9 -118 | -135 |
Twins vs Orioles Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Orioles will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 54.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Trevor Larnach has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 games (+15.10 Units / 252% ROI)
- Royce Lewis has hit the RBIs Under in 18 of his last 20 games (+13.30 Units / 32% ROI)
- Royce Lewis has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+13.10 Units / 87% ROI)
- Royce Lewis has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+11.45 Units / 52% ROI)
- Trevor Larnach has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+10.65 Units / 37% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ryan O’Hearn has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 10 games at home (+23.10 Units / 231% ROI)
- Emmanuel Rivera has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+9.05 Units / 54% ROI)
- Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Hits Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+8.70 Units / 67% ROI)
- Emmanuel Rivera has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.25 Units / 34% ROI)
- Gunnar Henderson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+7.65 Units / 24% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 22 of their last 33 games (+12.90 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in their last 10 games (+10.90 Units / 88% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 34 games (+10.15 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 21 away games (+9.60 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 22 of their last 36 games (+7.70 Units / 17% ROI)
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 36 games (+13.10 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.38 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.00 Units / 60% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 6 games (+2.18 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.80 Units / 24% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Twins are 25-18 against the Run Line (+8.55 Units / 15.92% ROI).
- 23-20 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.55 Units / -0.96% ROI
- 16-24 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.45 Units / -21.98% ROI
- 24-16 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.5 Units / 13.82% ROI
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Orioles are 14-27 against the Run Line (-15.46 Units / -29.53% ROI).
- 15-26 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.65 Units / -33.21% ROI
- 19-19 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.58 Units / -3.52% ROI
- 19-19 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.82 Units / -4.01% ROI
Orioles vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -350 |
| Gunnar Henderson (BAL) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Tyler O’Neill (BAL) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Trevor Larnach (MIN) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Royce Lewis (MIN) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
Orioles vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Trevor Larnach (MIN) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Adley Rutschman (BAL) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Ryan Jeffers (MIN) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Ryan O'Hearn (BAL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Emmanuel Rivera (BAL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Orioles vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adley Rutschman (BAL) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Gunnar Henderson (BAL) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Ryan Mountcastle (BAL) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Tyler O’Neill (BAL) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
Orioles vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Chris Paddack (MIN) | 3.5 -145 | 3.5 +110 |
| Tomoyuki Sugano (BAL) | 3.5 +105 | 3.5 -135 |
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Chris Paddack allowed a slugging percentage of .500 (55 Total Bases / 110 ABs) on low non-fastballs in the 2024 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .316 — first Percentile.
Hitters batting in the top of the order are hitless (0-for-16) against Chris Paddack this month (2 games) — tied for best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .248 — 100th Percentile.
Hitters batting in the top of the order are hitless (0-for-16) against Chris Paddack over the last 14 days — best among AL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: .246 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 30% (11/37) against Chris Paddack over the last 14 days — 3rd lowest among AL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: 42% — sixth Percentile.
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Tomoyuki Sugano has walked 3% of left-handed batters this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — 98th Percentile.
19% of Tomoyuki Sugano’s strikeouts are in the zone this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 50% — first Percentile.
Tomoyuki Sugano has a strikeout rate of just 10% (7 SO in 72 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — tied for lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 21% — second Percentile.
Tomoyuki Sugano has a strikeout rate of just 10% (7 SO in 72 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — tied for lowest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 20% — fourth Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Twins are 161-3 (.982) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .949.
The Twins are just 1-85 (.012) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Twins were 69-1 (.986) when leading entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .949.
The Twins are just 8-12 (.400) after a loss this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .501.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Orioles are just 2-13 (.133) after a win this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .499.
The Orioles are just 0-25 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .046.
The Orioles are just 0-23 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .086.
The Orioles are just 4-23 (.148) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .291.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters slugged just .164 on pitches out of the zone in 2023 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .211.
The Twins are batting just .310 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .335.
The Twins were just 14-29 (.326) against the run line (-32.5% ROI) vs top 10 scoring offenses in the 2024 season They play the Royals (12th best runs scored) today.
Twins hitters slugged .716 on the first pitch of at-bats in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .596.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
Orioles hitters have an OPS of just .510 (427 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .685.
Orioles hitters are slugging .770 with the pitcher behind in the count this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .562.
Orioles hitters have an OPS of 1.235 (273 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.036.
Orioles hitters are slugging just .252 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .375.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have walked 7% of batters this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Twins pitchers have walked 7% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins pitchers had a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins pitchers had a strikeout rate of 26% in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Orioles pitchers have walked 13% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Orioles pitchers this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .150 against Orioles pitchers this month (11 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .260.
More MLB Reading:
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