White Sox vs Twins Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 28

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 28, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The White Sox (76-78) are -110 favorites vs the Twins (75-79)
  • White Sox starting pitcher: Johnny Cueto (7-9), 3.15 ERA
  • Twins starting pitcher: Josh Winder (4-5), 4.20 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSN

The Chicago White Sox (-110) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-110) on Wednesday, September 28, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Minneapolis.

The White Sox are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).

The White Sox vs Twins Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the White Sox are 76-78 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 70-84 ATS.

White Sox vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
White Sox-1.5 +150O 7.5 -105-110
Twins +1.5 -185U 7.5 -115-110

White Sox vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the White Sox will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 55.5% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the White Sox and Twins and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best White Sox Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for White Sox players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jose Abreu has hit the Singles Over in 73 of his last 109 games (+29.90 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Jose Abreu has hit the Hits Over in 74 of his last 111 games (+22.30 Units / 10% ROI)
  • Jose Abreu has hit the Total Bases Over in 60 of his last 111 games (+15.75 Units / 13% ROI)
  • Danny Mendick has hit the Runs Over in 10 of his last 11 games (+15.60 Units / 142% ROI)
  • Dylan Cease has hit the Earned Runs Under in 22 of his last 27 games (+15.15 Units / 42% ROI)

Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Carlos Correa has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 21 games (+13.20 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Jose Miranda has hit the Runs Under in 33 of his last 46 games (+13.20 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Alex Kirilloff has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 17 games at home (+11.80 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Carlos Correa has hit the Singles Over in 27 of his last 40 games at home (+11.10 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Miguel Sano has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 games at home (+10.00 Units / 58% ROI)

Twins vs White Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Carlos Correa 0.5 +650 0.5 -2000
Gio Urshela 0.5 +850 0.5 -5000
Jake Cave 0.5 +775 0.5 -3000
Luis Arraez 0.5 +1100 0.5
Mark Contreras 0.5 +625 0.5 -1600

Twins vs White Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Carlos Correa 0.5 -275 0.5 +190
Gio Urshela 0.5 -275 0.5 +185
Jake Cave 0.5 -190 0.5 +130
Luis Arraez 1.5 +150 1.5 -225
Mark Contreras 0.5 -135 0.5 -105

Twins vs White Sox RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Carlos Correa 0.5 +185 0.5 -275
Gio Urshela 0.5 +165 0.5 -250
Jake Cave 0.5 +210 0.5 -350
Luis Arraez 0.5 +210 0.5 -350
Mark Contreras 0.5 +240 0.5 -375

Twins vs White Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Josh Winder 3.5 +115 3.5 -160
Johnny Cueto 3.5 -155 3.5 +110
  • The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 10 games (+8.75 Units / 74% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 11 of their last 14 games at home (+8.55 Units / 54% ROI)

White Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the White Sox have gone 67-87 against the Run Line (-22.5 Units / -12.38% ROI).

  • 76-78 when betting on the Moneyline for -24.25 Units / -11.38% ROI
  • 69-75 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.2 Units / -7.22% ROI
  • 75-69 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.25 Units / -0.15% ROI

Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the White Sox have gone 70-84 against the Run Line (-18.7 Units / -9.93% ROI).

  • 75-79 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.5 Units / -7.15% ROI
  • 71-72 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.55 Units / -4.46% ROI
  • 72-71 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.4 Units / -3.76% ROI

The average home run distance against Johnny Cueto since the start of last season is 411.4 feet — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 157 total IP; League Avg: 399.1

Opponents have a miss rate of just 17% (118/708) against Johnny Cueto in non-two strike counts this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total IP; League Avg: 25% — second Percentile.

Johnny Cueto has located his fastball inside 50% of the time (487/977) this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total IP; League Avg: 34% — 98th Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 20% (403/2,027) against Johnny Cueto since the start of last season — tied for 9th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 157 total IP; League Avg: 25% — seventh Percentile.

Josh Winder: Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Josh Winder had a first-pitch strike rate of just 44% (11/25) — 2nd lowest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 63% — second Percentile.

Opposing hitters have no hits in their last 43 ABs ending on a two-strike slider from Josh Winder. — Zack Britton has the longest active streak at 48.

Josh Winder has allowed at least one HR in each of his last four games dating back to July 12nd — the longest active streak is 6.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 31% (15/49) against Josh Winder this month (3 games) — tied for 13th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 11 total IP; League Avg: 42% — eighth Percentile.

White Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Twins

The White Sox are just 35-43 (.449) at home this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .525.

The White Sox are 41-35 (.539) on the road this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .475.

The White Sox are 27-6 (.818) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .706.

The White Sox are just 7-39 (.152) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .274.

Twins Keys to the Game vs. the White Sox

The Twins are just 4-12 (.250) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Twins are just 30-44 (.405) on the road this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .475.

The Twins are just 9-34 (.209) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .338.

The Twins are just 6-10 (.375) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

White Sox hitters have an OPS of just .450 (271 PA’s) in lefty-lefty matchups since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .653.

White Sox hitters have 92 extra-base hits out of 312 total hits (just 29%) with the pitcher behind in the count this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.

White Sox hitters have drawn 37 walks in 748 PA’s (5%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

White Sox hitters have pulled just 41% of balls they’ve put into play against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Twins hitters have 41 extra-base hits out of 158 total hits (just 26%) against RHP this month (25 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Twins hitters have drawn 8 walks in 221 PA’s (4%) against LHP this month (17 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Twins hitters have an OPS of just .515 (147 PA’s) in innings 7-9 over the last 14 days (14 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .690.

Twins hitters have 60 strikeouts in 221 PA’s (27%) against LHP this month (17 games) — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

White Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

White Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since the start of last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

White Sox pitchers have an ERA of 3.48 (658.2 IP) on the road this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.12.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against White Sox pitchers since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Twins pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the start of 2020 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

The Twins pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 44% of their games since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Twins vs. White Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Kyle Garlick (Twins): Wrist, D10
  • Daniel Coulombe (Twins): Hip, D60
  • Jhon Romero (Twins): Biceps, D60
  • Alexander Kirilloff (Twins): Wrist, D60
  • Miguel Sanó (Twins): Knee, D60
  • Tyler Mahle (Twins): Shoulder, D15
  • Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
  • Kenta Maeda (Twins): Elbow, D60
  • Byron Buxton (Twins): Hip, D10
  • Maximilian Kepler (Twins): Wrist, D10
  • Christopher Archer (Twins): Pectoral, D15
  • Sandy León (Twins): Knee, D10
  • Jorge Polanco (Twins): Knee, D10
  • Sonny Gray (Twins): Hamstring, D15
  • Trevor Larnach (Twins): Core, D60
  • Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
  • Jorge Alcala (Twins): Elbow, D60
  • Cody Stashak (Twins): Shoulder, D60
  • Kyle Crick (White Sox): Elbow, D60
  • Jonathan Stiever (White Sox): Lat, D60
  • Luis Robert (White Sox): Wrist, D10
  • Michael Kopech (White Sox): Shoulder, D15
  • Timothy Anderson (White Sox): Finger, D10
  • Garrett Crochet (White Sox): Elbow, D60
  • Daniel Mendick (White Sox): Knee, D60
  • Bernardo Zavala (White Sox): Concussion, D7

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.