- The Yankees are -115 favorites vs the Guardians
- Yankees vs Guardians Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Yankees / Guardians TV Channel: YES | GDTV
The New York Yankees (-115) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-105) on Tuesday, April 22, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10pm EDT in Cleveland, OH, OH.
This season, the Yankees are 14-9 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 12-10 ATS.
Yankees vs Guardians Starting Pitchers Today:
- Yankees starting pitcher: Will Warren 1-0, 5.29 ERA
- Guardians starting pitcher: Tanner Bibee 1-2, 5.96 ERA
Yankees vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Yankees | -1.5 +150 | O 8.5 -110 | -115 |
| Guardians | +1.5 -185 | U 8.5 -110 | -105 |
Yankees vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jazz Chisholm has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+11.45 Units / 34% ROI)
- Jazz Chisholm has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 games (+10.90 Units / 121% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 15 away games (+8.55 Units / 56% ROI)
- Paul Goldschmidt has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 10 away games (+8.50 Units / 44% ROI)
- Paul Goldschmidt has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 15 away games (+7.50 Units / 47% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Gabriel Arias has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 games (+19.50 Units / 217% ROI)
- Nolan Jones has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 20 games (+17.35 Units / 48% ROI)
- Nolan Jones has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.50 Units / 41% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+7.75 Units / 26% ROI)
- Gabriel Arias has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 15 games at home (+7.30 Units / 47% ROI)
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Under in 10 of their last 15 games (+5.10 Units / 30% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 7 of their last 9 away games (+4.65 Units / 40% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 23 games (+4.55 Units / 17% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.70 Units / 31% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 22 games (+3.30 Units / 14% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 13 games (+7.95 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 15 of their last 22 games (+7.55 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 12 games (+7.00 Units / 46% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.55 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.45 Units / 28% ROI)
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Yankees are 11-12 against the Run Line (+0.1 Units / 0.39% ROI).
- 14-9 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.55 Units / 7.69% ROI
- 12-9 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.25 Units / 8.96% ROI
- 9-12 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.25 Units / -16.67% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 12-10 against the Run Line (+0.25 Units / 0.8% ROI).
- 13-9 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.8 Units / 17.91% ROI
- 11-9 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.4 Units / 5.86% ROI
- 9-11 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.05 Units / -12.45% ROI
Guardians vs Yankees Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -325 |
| Kyle Manzardo (CLE) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr (NYY) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Ben Rice (NYY) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Guardians vs Yankees Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Steven Kwan (CLE) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Cody Bellinger (NYY) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
Guardians vs Yankees RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Kyle Manzardo (CLE) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Cody Bellinger (NYY) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -225 |
Guardians vs Yankees Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tanner Bibee (CLE) | 5.5 -150 | 5.5 +115 |
| Will Warren (NYY) | 4.5 +120 | 4.5 -155 |
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a swing rate of just 26% (56/214) against Will Warren in non-two strike counts this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 0 Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 35% of Will Warren’s pitches (111/316) this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: 47% — 0 Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a swing rate of just 33% (61/186) against Will Warren this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: 47% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 7% (5/67) against Will Warren on the first pitch of at-bats this month (4 games) — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 32% — 0 Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Tanner Bibee has walked 28% of batters when going through the lineup the first time in a game over the last 14 days — highest among AL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: 9% — first Percentile.
Tanner Bibee has allowed an OPS of 1.723 (32 PA’s) versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: .752 — 0 Percentile.
Tanner Bibee has allowed a slugging percentage of 1.160 (29 Total Bases / 25 ABs) versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: .424 — 0 Percentile.
Tanner Bibee has allowed an OPS of 1.873 (15 PA’s) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: .740 — 0 Percentile.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Yankees are 45-25 (.643) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since last season They play the Guardians (third best runs allowed) today.
The Yankees are 55-13 (.809) when they’ve scored in the first inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .637.
The Yankees are 86-26 (.768) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .625.
The Yankees were 37-21 (.638) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams in the 2024 season They play the Tigers (fifth best runs allowed) today.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Guardians are 83-3 (.965) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .860.
The Guardians were just 3-61 (.047) when trailing entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .100.
The Guardians are 89-2 (.978) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .902.
The Guardians were 71-2 (.973) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .856.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters drew 221 walks in 1,808 PA’s (12%) against LHP in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Yankees hitters have drawn walks in 12% of its PA’s against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Yankees hitters have drawn walks in 13% of its PA’s when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Yankees hitters chased 24% of pitches out of the zone against LHP in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters are slugging .884 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .581.
Guardians hitters struck out just 1,142 times in 6,096 PA’s (19%) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters slugged just .367 against LHP in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .419.
Guardians hitters had an OBP of just .296 (1,910 PA’s) against LHP in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .323.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .214 against Yankees pitchers with runners on base in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .259.
Yankees pitchers have walked 12% of batters this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Yankees pitchers have walked 14% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Yankees pitchers have a strikeout rate of 34% in close and late situations this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .212 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .207 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .223 against Guardians pitchers in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
The Guardians allowed 0.87 runs per game (140/161) in late innings in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.29.
More MLB Reading:
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