- Inter Miami is a -1.5-goal favorite against Atlanta United.
- When these sides last met, Atlanta captured a 5-2 win at home.
- With Lionel Messi in the Starting XI, Miami is 4-0 SU at home this season.
With Lionel Messi and Luis Suarez expected to return to the Starting XI, Inter Miami welcome Atlanta United to Chase Field on Wednesday.Â
Even in their absence, Miami captured a road win over the weekend against Vancouver. That’s their second consecutive win and fourth victory in their last five games.Â
As for Atlanta, they struggled over the weekend in a 1-0 home defeat to LAFC. That leaves them 12th in the East with three losses in their last four league games.Â
Here’s a look at the MLS odds and my prediction for Wednesday’s match.Â
MLS Odds – Inter Miami vs. Atlanta United
- Inter Miami Moneyline: -225
- Atlanta United Moneyline: +450
- Draw Moneyline: +380
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (-105/-135)
MLS Predictions – Inter Miami vs. Atlanta United
Inter Miami Second Half Moneyline (-145)
Even when they start their two talismans in attack, Miami struggles to get going until the second half.Â
The duo has featured in four home fixtures for Miami this season. Only twice in those four matches has Miami taken a halftime lead.Â
A well-rested attack could see that trend reversed, but this is simultaneously a Miami team that doesn’t let their foot off the gas after halftime.Â
In four home matches with Messi in the Starting XI, manager Tata Martino’s side is a perfect 4-0 SU in the second half.Â
Across all league matches this season with Messi playing, Miami is 9-1-0 (W-D-L) in the second half.Â
Plus, when these sides met last in Miami in a match that featured Messi, Miami was dominant. They won 4-0 against Atlanta and won each half 2-0.Â
That should position them well for success against Atlanta, who has struggled away from home this season.Â
Atlanta has a -0.81 expected goal differential per 90 minutes on the road this season, the fourth-worst mark in the Eastern Conference.Â
Slightly concerning is that they’ve lost only one second half outright in those road matches, but Miami is their second-hardest road opponent by home expected goal differential.Â
In the previous match — a trip to NYCFC on April 6 — Atlanta won the second half 1-0 but lost the expected goals battle 0.55 to 0.89, per fotmob.com.Â
Even if Miami does earn an early advantage, I don’t believe this ticket is dead. As a result, take them to continue their streak of positive second-half performances.Â
Inter Miami FormÂ
May 25 at Vancouver: 2-1, W
May 18 vs. D.C. United: 1-0, W
May 15 at Orlando SC: 0-0, D
May 11 at Montreal: 3-2, W
May 4 vs. NY Red Bulls: 6-2, W
Atlanta United Form
May 25 vs. LAFC: 0-1, L
May 21 at Charleston Battery: 0-0, D (U.S. Open Cup)
May 18 at Nashville SC: 1-1, D
May 15 at FC Cincinnati: 0-1, L
May 11 vs. D.C. United: 2-3, L
Upcoming MLS Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| NYCFC | San Jose Earthquakes | May. 31 | 7:30 PM | Yankee Stadium |
| D.C. United | Toronto FC | Jun. 1 | 7:30 PM | Audi Field |
| Inter Miami | St. Louis SC | Jun. 1 | 7:30 PM | Chase Field |
| NY Red Bulls | Orlando SC | Jun. 1 | 7:30 PM | Red Bull Arena |
| Philadelphia Union | Montreal | Jun. 1 | 7:30 PM | Subaru Park |
| Chicago Fire | LA Galaxy | Jun. 1 | 8:30 PM | Soldier Field |
| Minnesota United | Sporting KC | Jun. 1 | 8:30 PM | Allianz Field |
| Nashville SC | New England Revolution | Jun. 1 | 8:30 PM | GEODIS Park |
| Real Salt Lake | Austin FC | Jun. 1 | 9:30 PM | America First Field |
| LAFC | FC Dallas | Jun. 1 | 10:30 PM | BMO Stadium |
| Portland Timbers | Houston Dynamo | Jun. 1 | 10:30 PM | Providence Park |
| Vancouver Whitecaps | Colorado Rapids | Jun. 1 | 10:30 PM | BC Place |
| Atlanta United | Charlotte FC | Jun. 2 | 2:45 PM | Mercedes-Benz Stadium |
MLS Eastern Conference Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Inter Miami | 10-4-3 | 34 | 15 |
| FC Cincinnati | 10-3-3 | 33 | 7 |
| NYCFC | 8-2-5 | 26 | 3 |
| NY Red Bulls | 7-5-3 | 26 | 6 |
| Columbus Crew | 6-6-2 | 24 | 8 |
| Toronto FC | 7-2-7 | 23 | 0 |
| Charlotte FC | 6-4-6 | 22 | -1 |
| Philadelphia Union | 4-7-4 | 19 | 4 |
| Nashville SC | 4-7-4 | 19 | -1 |
| D.C. United | 4-6-6 | 18 | -6 |
| Orlando City | 4-5-6 | 17 | -7 |
| Atlanta United | 4-4-7 | 16 | 2 |
| CF Montreal | 4-4-7 | 16 | -12 |
| Chicago Fire | 2-6-8 | 12 | -13 |
| NE Revolution | 2-1-10 | 7 | -17 |
MLS Western Conference Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Real Salt Lake | 8-6-2 | 30 | 13 |
| LA Galaxy | 7-7-2 | 28 | 5 |
| LAFC | 8-3-4 | 27 | 8 |
| Minnesota United | 7-4-3 | 25 | 5 |
| Austin FC | 6-5-5 | 23 | 0 |
| Vancouver Whitecaps | 6-4-5 | 22 | 4 |
| Colorado Rapids | 6-4-6 | 22 | -1 |
| Houston Dynamo | 6-3-6 | 21 | 0 |
| Portland Timbers | 5-4-7 | 19 | 0 |
| Seattle Sounders | 4-6-6 | 18 | 0 |
| St. Louis SC | 3-7-4 | 16 | -2 |
| FC Dallas | 3-4-7 | 13 | -6 |
| San Jose Earthquakes | 3-2-10 | 11 | -11 |
| Sporting KC | 2-5-8 | 11 | -5 |
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