Inter Miami vs. Atlanta United Prediction | MLS Predictions, Odds

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Inter Miami forward Lionel Messi runs during the first half of an MLS soccer match against Real Salt Lake, Wednesday, Feb. 21, 2024, in Fort Lauderdale, Fla.
(Lynne Sladky/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion May 28, 2024, 6:57 PM
  • Inter Miami is a -1.5-goal favorite against Atlanta United.
  • When these sides last met, Atlanta captured a 5-2 win at home.
  • With Lionel Messi in the Starting XI, Miami is 4-0 SU at home this season.

With Lionel Messi and Luis Suarez expected to return to the Starting XI, Inter Miami welcome Atlanta United to Chase Field on Wednesday. 

Even in their absence, Miami captured a road win over the weekend against Vancouver. That’s their second consecutive win and fourth victory in their last five games. 

As for Atlanta, they struggled over the weekend in a 1-0 home defeat to LAFC. That leaves them 12th in the East with three losses in their last four league games. 

Here’s a look at the MLS odds and my prediction for Wednesday’s match. 

MLS Odds – Inter Miami vs. Atlanta United

  • Inter Miami Moneyline: -225
  • Atlanta United Moneyline: +450
  • Draw Moneyline: +380
  • Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (-105/-135)

MLS Predictions – Inter Miami vs. Atlanta United

Inter Miami Second Half Moneyline (-145)

Even when they start their two talismans in attack, Miami struggles to get going until the second half. 

The duo has featured in four home fixtures for Miami this season. Only twice in those four matches has Miami taken a halftime lead. 

A well-rested attack could see that trend reversed, but this is simultaneously a Miami team that doesn’t let their foot off the gas after halftime. 

In four home matches with Messi in the Starting XI, manager Tata Martino’s side is a perfect 4-0 SU in the second half. 

Across all league matches this season with Messi playing, Miami is 9-1-0 (W-D-L) in the second half. 

Plus, when these sides met last in Miami in a match that featured Messi, Miami was dominant. They won 4-0 against Atlanta and won each half 2-0. 

That should position them well for success against Atlanta, who has struggled away from home this season. 

Atlanta has a -0.81 expected goal differential per 90 minutes on the road this season, the fourth-worst mark in the Eastern Conference. 

Slightly concerning is that they’ve lost only one second half outright in those road matches, but Miami is their second-hardest road opponent by home expected goal differential. 

In the previous match — a trip to NYCFC on April 6 — Atlanta won the second half 1-0 but lost the expected goals battle 0.55 to 0.89, per 

Even if Miami does earn an early advantage, I don’t believe this ticket is dead. As a result, take them to continue their streak of positive second-half performances. 

Inter Miami Form 

May 25 at Vancouver: 2-1, W

May 18 vs. D.C. United: 1-0, W

May 15 at Orlando SC: 0-0, D

May 11 at Montreal: 3-2, W

May 4 vs. NY Red Bulls: 6-2, W

Atlanta United Form

May 25 vs. LAFC: 0-1, L

May 21 at Charleston Battery: 0-0, D (U.S. Open Cup)

May 18 at Nashville SC: 1-1, D

May 15 at FC Cincinnati: 0-1, L

May 11 vs. D.C. United: 2-3, L

Upcoming MLS Match Schedule

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
NYCFCSan Jose EarthquakesMay. 317:30 PMYankee Stadium
D.C. UnitedToronto FCJun. 17:30 PMAudi Field
Inter MiamiSt. Louis SCJun. 17:30 PMChase Field
NY Red BullsOrlando SCJun. 17:30 PMRed Bull Arena
Philadelphia UnionMontrealJun. 17:30 PMSubaru Park
Chicago FireLA GalaxyJun. 18:30 PMSoldier Field
Minnesota UnitedSporting KCJun. 18:30 PMAllianz Field
Nashville SCNew England RevolutionJun. 18:30 PMGEODIS Park
Real Salt LakeAustin FCJun. 19:30 PMAmerica First Field
LAFCFC DallasJun. 110:30 PMBMO Stadium
Portland TimbersHouston DynamoJun. 110:30 PMProvidence Park
Vancouver WhitecapsColorado RapidsJun. 110:30 PMBC Place
Atlanta UnitedCharlotte FCJun. 22:45 PMMercedes-Benz Stadium

MLS Eastern Conference Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal Differential
Inter Miami10-4-33415
FC Cincinnati10-3-3337
NY Red Bulls7-5-3266
Columbus Crew6-6-2248
Toronto FC7-2-7230
Charlotte FC6-4-622-1
Philadelphia Union4-7-4194
Nashville SC4-7-419-1
D.C. United4-6-618-6
Orlando City4-5-617-7
Atlanta United4-4-7162
CF Montreal4-4-716-12
Chicago Fire2-6-812-13
NE Revolution2-1-107-17

MLS Western Conference Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal Differential
Real Salt Lake8-6-23013
LA Galaxy7-7-2285
Minnesota United7-4-3255
Austin FC6-5-5230
Vancouver Whitecaps6-4-5224
Colorado Rapids6-4-622-1
Houston Dynamo6-3-6210
Portland Timbers5-4-7190
Seattle Sounders4-6-6180
St. Louis SC3-7-416-2
FC Dallas3-4-713-6
San Jose Earthquakes3-2-1011-11
Sporting KC2-5-811-5

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.