LAFC vs. Minnesota United Prediction | MLS Predictions, Odds

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Los Angeles FC forward Denis Bouanga, left, celebrates his goal against the Portland Timbers with Jesus Murillo (3) and Cristian Olivera (13) during the second half of an MLS soccer match Saturday, April 27, 2024, in Los Angeles.
(AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion May 28, 2024, 6:50 PM
  • LAFC is a -1.5-goal favorite against Minnesota United.
  • Minnesota earned a 2-0 home win the last time these sides played.
  • Why bettors should expect a high-scoring contest on Wednesday.

It’s a chance for the hosts to jump up the Western Conference standings as LAFC welcomes Minnesota United to BMO Stadium. 

LA currently sits fourth in the West, but a win on Wednesday could see them go as high as second in the standings. Most recently, they captured a 1-0 win against Atlanta United. 

As for Minnesota, they jumped out to a 3-1 lead over the weekend in Colorado. However, they had to settle for a 3-3 draw. 

Here’s a look at the MLS odds and my prediction for Wednesday’s match. 

MLS Odds – LAFC vs. Minnesota United

  • LAFC Moneyline: -200
  • Minnesota United Moneyline: +450
  • Draw Moneyline: +360
  • Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+100/-14)

MLS Predictions – LAFC vs. Minnesota United

Total Over 3.5 Goals (+100)

This simply isn’t a good spot for either defense, as both will travel to play a match on short rest. 

Accordingly, bettors should expect goals to flow on Wednesday at BMO Stadium. 

Although LAFC have received their fair share of red card luck this season, they’ve proven capable of dominating teams at home, even at equal strength. 

Sample five home matches this season in which LAFC played without a man advantage and bettors will find they’ve created 2.08 non-penalty expected goals per 90. 

Even more impressive is what happens when they face a bad defense. 

Against the LA Galaxy — a side equal to Minnesota in npxGA per 90 — they created 2.8 npxG and 3.3 non-penalty post-shot expected goals. 

Over the weekend, Minnesota surrendered 3.3 expected goals to the Rapids. As it stands, Colorado creates 0.49 npxG fewer than LAFC without adjusting for red cards. 

Add in LAFC generated 1.6 xG in the most recent meeting at Minnesota, and I expect they’ll contribute the lion’s share of the scoring. 

At the same time, I want to sell this LAFC defense. They’ve played two straight road matches and have kept clean sheets in both. 

However, they’ve allowed at least one expected goal in both and one post-shot expected goal per 90, according to 

Additionally, Minnesota has shown they can create offensively without needing penalty luck. To date, they’ve yet to attempt a penalty and are creating 1.68 npxG per 90 minutes. 

Slightly concerning is that they generated only 0.8 xG against LAFC at home, but the lack of rest for LAFC’s defense should lead to a goal for Minnesota. 

As a result, take the plus money available on over 3.5 goals in the midweek. 

LAFC Form 

May 25 at Atlanta United: 1-0, W

May 21 vs. Loudoun United: 3-0, W (U.S. Open Cup)

May 15 at St. Louis: 2-0, W

May 11 vs. Vancouver: 3-0, W

May 8 at Las Vegas Lights: 3-1, W (U.S. Open Cup)

Minnesota United Form

May 25 at Colorado: 3-3, D

May 18 vs. Portland: 2-1, W

May 15 vs. LA Galaxy: 2-2, D

May 4 at Atlanta United: 2-1, W

April 27 vs. Sporting KC: 2-1, W

Upcoming MLS Match Schedule

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
NYCFCSan Jose EarthquakesMay. 317:30 PMYankee Stadium
D.C. UnitedToronto FCJun. 17:30 PMAudi Field
Inter MiamiSt. Louis SCJun. 17:30 PMChase Field
NY Red BullsOrlando SCJun. 17:30 PMRed Bull Arena
Philadelphia UnionMontrealJun. 17:30 PMSubaru Park
Chicago FireLA GalaxyJun. 18:30 PMSoldier Field
Minnesota UnitedSporting KCJun. 18:30 PMAllianz Field
Nashville SCNew England RevolutionJun. 18:30 PMGEODIS Park
Real Salt LakeAustin FCJun. 19:30 PMAmerica First Field
LAFCFC DallasJun. 110:30 PMBMO Stadium
Portland TimbersHouston DynamoJun. 110:30 PMProvidence Park
Vancouver WhitecapsColorado RapidsJun. 110:30 PMBC Place
Atlanta UnitedCharlotte FCJun. 22:45 PMMercedes-Benz Stadium

MLS Eastern Conference Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal Differential
Inter Miami10-4-33415
FC Cincinnati10-3-3337
NY Red Bulls7-5-3266
Columbus Crew6-6-2248
Toronto FC7-2-7230
Charlotte FC6-4-622-1
Philadelphia Union4-7-4194
Nashville SC4-7-419-1
D.C. United4-6-618-6
Orlando City4-5-617-7
Atlanta United4-4-7162
CF Montreal4-4-716-12
Chicago Fire2-6-812-13
NE Revolution2-1-107-17

MLS Western Conference Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal Differential
Real Salt Lake8-6-23013
LA Galaxy7-7-2285
Minnesota United7-4-3255
Austin FC6-5-5230
Vancouver Whitecaps6-4-5224
Colorado Rapids6-4-622-1
Houston Dynamo6-3-6210
Portland Timbers5-4-7190
Seattle Sounders4-6-6180
St. Louis SC3-7-416-2
FC Dallas3-4-713-6
San Jose Earthquakes3-2-1011-11
Sporting KC2-5-811-5

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.