LAFC vs. Minnesota United Prediction | MLS Predictions, Odds

It’s a chance for the hosts to jump up the Western Conference standings as LAFC welcomes Minnesota United to BMO Stadium. 

LA currently sits fourth in the West, but a win on Wednesday could see them go as high as second in the standings. Most recently, they captured a 1-0 win against Atlanta United. 

As for Minnesota, they jumped out to a 3-1 lead over the weekend in Colorado. However, they had to settle for a 3-3 draw. 

Here’s a look at the MLS odds and my prediction for Wednesday’s match. 

MLS Odds – LAFC vs. Minnesota United

• LAFC Moneyline: -200
• Minnesota United Moneyline: +450
• Draw Moneyline: +360
• Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+100/-14)

MLS Predictions – LAFC vs. Minnesota United

Total Over 3.5 Goals (+100)

This simply isn’t a good spot for either defense, as both will travel to play a match on short rest. 

Accordingly, bettors should expect goals to flow on Wednesday at BMO Stadium. 

Although LAFC have received their fair share of red card luck this season, they’ve proven capable of dominating teams at home, even at equal strength. 

Sample five home matches this season in which LAFC played without a man advantage and bettors will find they’ve created 2.08 non-penalty expected goals per 90. 

Even more impressive is what happens when they face a bad defense. 

Against the LA Galaxy — a side equal to Minnesota in npxGA per 90 — they created 2.8 npxG and 3.3 non-penalty post-shot expected goals. 

Over the weekend, Minnesota surrendered 3.3 expected goals to the Rapids. As it stands, Colorado creates 0.49 npxG fewer than LAFC without adjusting for red cards. 

Add in LAFC generated 1.6 xG in the most recent meeting at Minnesota, and I expect they’ll contribute the lion’s share of the scoring. 

At the same time, I want to sell this LAFC defense. They’ve played two straight road matches and have kept clean sheets in both. 

However, they’ve allowed at least one expected goal in both and one post-shot expected goal per 90, according to fbref.com. 

Additionally, Minnesota has shown they can create offensively without needing penalty luck. To date, they’ve yet to attempt a penalty and are creating 1.68 npxG per 90 minutes. 

Slightly concerning is that they generated only 0.8 xG against LAFC at home, but the lack of rest for LAFC’s defense should lead to a goal for Minnesota. 

As a result, take the plus money available on over 3.5 goals in the midweek. 

LAFC Form 

May 25 at Atlanta United: 1-0, W

May 21 vs. Loudoun United: 3-0, W (U.S. Open Cup)

May 15 at St. Louis: 2-0, W

May 11 vs. Vancouver: 3-0, W

May 8 at Las Vegas Lights: 3-1, W (U.S. Open Cup)

Minnesota United Form

May 25 at Colorado: 3-3, D

May 18 vs. Portland: 2-1, W

May 15 vs. LA Galaxy: 2-2, D

May 4 at Atlanta United: 2-1, W

April 27 vs. Sporting KC: 2-1, W

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