Minnesota United vs. Sporting KC Prediction | MLS Predictions, Odds

Before Saturday’s Western Conference meeting at the Allianz Field, I’m here to offer a Minnesota United vs. Sporting KC prediction. 

Neither side enters this match in particularly good form. Minnesota returns home after a 2-0 road defeat against LAFC, their third defeat of the season. 

As for Sporting, they’ve dropped six league matches in a row, including four consecutive one-goal defeats. 

Here’s a look at the MLS odds and my prediction for Saturday’s match. 

MLS Odds – Minnesota United vs. Sporting KC

• Minnesota United Moneyline: -135
• Sporting KC Moneyline: +290
• Draw Moneyline: +300
• Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-190/+130)

MLS Predictions – Minnesota United vs. Sporting KC

Minnesota United Moneyline (-135)

Both teams enter this game as a negative regression candidate for the season, but Minnesota has actually run slightly unlucky at home. 

United has a +3 goal differential at the Allianz Field compared to a +4.6 expected goal differential, per fbref.com. 

As for Sporting, they’ve posted terrible underlying metrics away from home. 

Entering Saturday’s match, they’re sitting on a -2 road goal differential against a -6.7 expected goal differential. 

Sample post-shot expected goals and bettors will find Kansas City has a -2 goal differential against a -6.5 psxGDiff, according to fbref.com. 

In those seven road matches, they’ve earned results only three times. 

One such loss came at Minnesota, who created 2.3 expected goals and 2.9 post-shot expected goals against Sporting, a bottom-six defense in MLS by non-penalty expected goals. 

That’s going to put them in trouble against a Minnesota attack that has created at least two expected goals in four consecutive home matches. 

Plus, Sporting’s attack is a prime regression candidate. 

They’ve scored 23 non-penalty goals off 14.4 non-penalty expected and have received the fifth-most fortune in terms of opposing goalkeepers failing to stop shots. 

As a result, take Minnesota to end their two-match winless run and claim all three points at home on Saturday. 

Minnesota United Form 

May 29 at LAFC: 0-2, L

May 25 at Colorado: 3-3, D

May 18 vs. Portland: 2-1, W

May 15 vs. LA Galaxy: 2-2, D

May 4 at Atlanta United: 2-1, W

Sporting KC Form

May 29 vs. Vancouver: 1-2, L

May 25 at Portland: 1-2, L

May 21 vs. FC Tulsa: 4-0, W (U.S. Open Cup)

May 18 at Austin: 2-3, L

May 11 vs. Houston: 1-2, L

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