Minnesota United vs. Sporting KC Prediction | MLS Predictions, Odds

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Minnesota United forward Teemu Pukki (22) and teammate midfielder Robin Lod (17) look on during an MLS soccer match against Real Salt Lake, Saturday, April 6, 2024, in St. Paul, Minn.
(AP Photo/Andy Clayton-King)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion May 30, 2024, 2:29 PM
  • Minnesota United is a -0.5-goal favorite against Sporting KC.
  • Minnesota earned a 2-1 home win in a previous home fixture against Sporting.
  • Why bettors should buy low on Minnesota United.

Before Saturday’s Western Conference meeting at the Allianz Field, I’m here to offer a Minnesota United vs. Sporting KC prediction. 

Neither side enters this match in particularly good form. Minnesota returns home after a 2-0 road defeat against LAFC, their third defeat of the season. 

As for Sporting, they’ve dropped six league matches in a row, including four consecutive one-goal defeats. 

Here’s a look at the MLS odds and my prediction for Saturday’s match. 

MLS Odds – Minnesota United vs. Sporting KC

  • Minnesota United Moneyline: -135
  • Sporting KC Moneyline: +290
  • Draw Moneyline: +300
  • Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-190/+130)

MLS Predictions – Minnesota United vs. Sporting KC

Minnesota United Moneyline (-135)

Both teams enter this game as a negative regression candidate for the season, but Minnesota has actually run slightly unlucky at home. 

United has a +3 goal differential at the Allianz Field compared to a +4.6 expected goal differential, per fbref.com. 

As for Sporting, they’ve posted terrible underlying metrics away from home. 

Entering Saturday’s match, they’re sitting on a -2 road goal differential against a -6.7 expected goal differential. 

Sample post-shot expected goals and bettors will find Kansas City has a -2 goal differential against a -6.5 psxGDiff, according to fbref.com. 

In those seven road matches, they’ve earned results only three times. 

One such loss came at Minnesota, who created 2.3 expected goals and 2.9 post-shot expected goals against Sporting, a bottom-six defense in MLS by non-penalty expected goals. 

That’s going to put them in trouble against a Minnesota attack that has created at least two expected goals in four consecutive home matches. 

Plus, Sporting’s attack is a prime regression candidate. 

They’ve scored 23 non-penalty goals off 14.4 non-penalty expected and have received the fifth-most fortune in terms of opposing goalkeepers failing to stop shots. 

As a result, take Minnesota to end their two-match winless run and claim all three points at home on Saturday. 

Minnesota United Form 

May 29 at LAFC: 0-2, L

May 25 at Colorado: 3-3, D

May 18 vs. Portland: 2-1, W

May 15 vs. LA Galaxy: 2-2, D

May 4 at Atlanta United: 2-1, W

Sporting KC Form

May 29 vs. Vancouver: 1-2, L

May 25 at Portland: 1-2, L

May 21 vs. FC Tulsa: 4-0, W (U.S. Open Cup)

May 18 at Austin: 2-3, L

May 11 vs. Houston: 1-2, L

Upcoming MLS Match Schedule

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
NYCFCSan Jose EarthquakesMay. 317:30 PMYankee Stadium
D.C. UnitedToronto FCJun. 17:30 PMAudi Field
Inter MiamiSt. Louis SCJun. 17:30 PMChase Field
NY Red BullsOrlando SCJun. 17:30 PMRed Bull Arena
Philadelphia UnionMontrealJun. 17:30 PMSubaru Park
Chicago FireLA GalaxyJun. 18:30 PMSoldier Field
Minnesota UnitedSporting KCJun. 18:30 PMAllianz Field
Nashville SCNew England RevolutionJun. 18:30 PMGEODIS Park
Real Salt LakeAustin FCJun. 19:30 PMAmerica First Field
LAFCFC DallasJun. 110:30 PMBMO Stadium
Portland TimbersHouston DynamoJun. 110:30 PMProvidence Park
Vancouver WhitecapsColorado RapidsJun. 110:30 PMBC Place
Atlanta UnitedCharlotte FCJun. 22:45 PMMercedes-Benz Stadium

MLS Eastern Conference Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal Differential
Inter Miami10-4-33415
FC Cincinnati10-3-3337
NY Red Bulls7-5-3266
Columbus Crew6-6-2248
Toronto FC7-2-7230
Charlotte FC6-4-622-1
Philadelphia Union4-7-4194
Nashville SC4-7-419-1
D.C. United4-6-618-6
Orlando City4-5-617-7
Atlanta United4-4-7162
CF Montreal4-4-716-12
Chicago Fire2-6-812-13
NE Revolution2-1-107-17

MLS Western Conference Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal Differential
Real Salt Lake8-6-23013
LA Galaxy7-7-2285
Minnesota United7-4-3255
Austin FC6-5-5230
Vancouver Whitecaps6-4-5224
Colorado Rapids6-4-622-1
Houston Dynamo6-3-6210
Portland Timbers5-4-7190
Seattle Sounders4-6-6180
St. Louis SC3-7-416-2
FC Dallas3-4-713-6
San Jose Earthquakes3-2-1011-11
Sporting KC2-5-811-5

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.