The Washington Nationals (+155) visit Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium to take on the Miami Marlins (-190) on Wednesday, March 13, 2024. First pitch is for this Spring Training game is scheduled for 1:10pm EDT in Jupiter, FL.
This season, the Nationals are 9-5 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 5-7 ATS.
Nationals vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +155 |
| Marlins | -190 |
Nationals vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 55.1% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Luis Garcia has hit the Singles Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+3.30 Units / 29% ROI)
- Jeter Downs has hit the Runs Over in 1 of his last 2 games (+0.80 Units / 40% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Peyton Burdick has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.40 Units / 80% ROI)
- Jesus Sanchez has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jacob Amaya has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.50 Units / 125% ROI)
- Jonathan Davis has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 60% ROI)
- Jacob Amaya has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 37% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 66 of their last 144 games (+23.45 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 50 of their last 81 away games (+14.45 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 16 of their last 23 away games (+8.08 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 32 away games (+7.95 Units / 23% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 36 of their last 64 games at home (+8.60 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 32 of their last 59 games at home (+8.35 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 15 games at home (+6.64 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 31 games (+5.65 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 38 of their last 67 games at home (+4.19 Units / 5% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Nationals are 8-6 against the Run Line (+1 Units / 5.49% ROI).
- 9-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.18 Units / 46.06% ROI
- 8-5 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.61 Units / 16.83% ROI
- 5-8 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.86 Units / -25.05% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Marlins are 5-7 against the Run Line (-2.3 Units / -15.8% ROI).
- 3-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.3 Units / -40.26% ROI
- 3-9 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.07 Units / -51.99% ROI
- 9-3 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.93 Units / 46.33% ROI
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a chase percentage of just 19% (44/227) against Jake Irvin with runners in scoring position in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 0 Percentile.
Right-handed hitters had a swing rate of just 41% (400/987) against Jake Irvin in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 49% — 0 Percentile.
Right-handed hitters had a chase rate of just 20% (102/502) against Jake Irvin in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents had a chase percentage of just 22% (233/1,041) against Jake Irvin in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 29% — first Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a miss rate of 34% (257/764) against Eury Perez in the 2023 season — tied for 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents had a line drive rate of 36% (19/52) versus Eury Perez on inside fastballs in the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 27% (63/233) against Eury Perez in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 43% — first Percentile.
Eury Perez allowed a slugging percentage of .758 (47 Total Bases / 62 ABs) on inside fastballs in the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .442 — 0 Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Nationals are just 39-64 (.379) after a home loss since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .516.
The Nationals are just 39-164 (.192) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .282.
The Nationals are just 63-43 (.594) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .728.
The Nationals are just 21-36 (.368) after a home win since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .536.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Marlins are just 21-73 (.223) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .303.
The Marlins are 43-6 (.878) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .796.
The Marlins were 7-64 (.099) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2023 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .052.
The Marlins were 24-3 (.889) when they had 5 or more XBH in the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .790.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters averaged just 3.76 pitches per plate appearance against RHP in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 37% at home since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Nationals hitters had a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 36% against RHP in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Nationals hitters struck out just 340 times in 1,868 PA’s (18%) against LHP in the 2023 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters had 149 extra-base hits out of 547 total hits (just 27%) with two-strikes in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 33%.
Marlins hitters pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters had 105 extra-base hits out of 357 total hits (just 29%) against LHP in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Nationals have won just 23% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Nationals pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes in the 2023 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Nationals pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 20% in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers had a strikeout rate of 24% in the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers in the 2023 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers had a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes in the 2023 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents had a miss rate of 28% against Marlins pitchers in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Marlins vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Calvin Faucher (Miami Marlins): Biceps, Out
- Eury Perez (Miami Marlins): Finger, Day-To-Day
- Jazz Chisholm (Miami Marlins): Toe, Out
- Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins): Elbow, Out
- Huascar Brazoban (Miami Marlins): Personal, Day-To-Day
- Braxton Garrett (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, Out
- Zach Brzykcy (Washington Nationals): Elbow, Out
- Stone Garrett (Washington Nationals): Lower Leg, Out
- Stephen Strasburg (Washington Nationals): Shoulder, Out
- Joey Meneses (Washington Nationals): Knee, Out
- Mason Thompson (Washington Nationals): Elbow, Out
- Dominic Smith (Washington Nationals): Hand, Day-To-Day
- Cade Cavalli (Washington Nationals): Elbow, Out
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