Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics Prediction, Odds, Lines, Team Props – NBA, Nov. 30

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 30, 2022, 4:30 PM
  • The Celtics (17-4) are -9.5 favorites vs. the Heat (10-11)
  • Total (Over/Under): 224.5 points
  • Wednesday, November 30, 2022 at 7:30pm EST
  • Watch the game on NBCS-BOS & BSSUN

The Miami Heat visit TD Garden to take on the Boston Celtics on Wednesday. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EST in Boston.

The Celtics are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -9.5 (-105).

The Heat vs Celtics Over/Under is 222.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Heat are 7-13 against the spread, while the Celtics are 13-8 against the spread.


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Heat vs. Celtics Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Miami Heat+9.5 -115O 222.5 -110+290
Boston Celtics -9.5 -105U 222.5 -110-375

Celtics vs Heat Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Celtics will win Wednesday‘s game with 71.1% confidence.

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Celtics will cover the spread for Wednesday‘s game with 51.0% confidence.

These predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Heat and Celtics, plus recent team & player performances and defensive & offensive matchups over the last several NBA games.


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  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Moneyline in 58 of their last 93 games (+19.45 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 33 of their last 49 games (+14.52 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the Moneyline in 60 of their last 96 games (+13.25 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 56 of their last 99 games (+12.05 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have covered the 3Q Spread in 21 of their last 30 away games (+11.02 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 57 of their last 86 games (+23.79 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 64 of their last 96 games (+18.20 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have covered the 1H Spread in 39 of their last 59 games (+16.80 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have covered the 1Q Spread in 58 of their last 96 games (+16.68 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have hit the 1H Moneyline in 65 of their last 96 games (+16.25 Units / 9% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 7-13 (-7.3 Units / -31.6% ROI).

  • 10-11 against the Moneyline (-5.45 Units / -14.81% ROI)
  • 10-10 against the Over for game total points (-1 Units / -4.33% ROI)
  • 10-10 against the Under for game total points (-1 Units / -4.33% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Celtics have gone 13-8 (+4.2 Units / 18.22% ROI).

  • 17-4 against the Moneyline (+8.65 Units / 13.91% ROI)
  • 12-9 against the Over for game total points (+2.1 Units / 9.09% ROI)
  • 9-12 against the Under for game total points (-4.2 Units / -18.18% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 29 of their last 86 games (-35.48 Units / -37% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only hit the 2H Moneyline in 51 of their last 98 games (-23.86 Units / -15% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 58 games (-21.55 Units / -32% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only hit the 2Q Moneyline in 49 of their last 93 games (-19.35 Units / -13% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 27 of their last 71 games (-18.95 Units / -24% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 44 of their last 100 games (-25.70 Units / -21% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 42 of their last 100 games (-22.37 Units / -20% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 1H Game Total Under in 40 of their last 99 games (-21.55 Units / -20% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 17 of their last 51 games (-20.82 Units / -37% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 2Q Moneyline in 47 of their last 100 games (-20.75 Units / -15% ROI)

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Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Boston Celtics

The Heat are 45-18 (.714) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .564

The Heat are 16-12 (.571) when allowing 15 or more second chance points since the start of the 2021-22 season — 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .461

The Heat are 29-3 (.906) when shooting 40% or better from three since the start of the 2021-22 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .744

The Heat are 13-8 (.619) when their opponent attempts fewer than 15 free throws since the start of the 2020-21 season — 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .510

Boston Celtics: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat

The Celtics are 20-10 (.667) when allowing 15 or more second chance points since the start of the 2021-22 season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .461

The Celtics are 21-11 (.656) when attempting 25 or more free throws since the start of the 2021-22 season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .553

The Celtics are 40-7 (.851) when forcing an eFG of 50% or worse since the start of the 2021-22 season — 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .767

The Celtics are 22-4 (.846) when shooting 40% or better from three since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .744

Injury Report: Celtics vs. HeatWednesday‘s Game, Nov. 30

  • Jaylen Brown (Celtics): Brown is QUESTIONABLE for Wednesday’s (Nov. 30) game against Miami.
  • Danilo Gallinari (Celtics): The Celtics announced that Gallinari tore his ACL in his left knee. There is no timetable for his return.
  • Robert Williams III (Celtics): Williams III underwent a procedure and will need 4-6 weeks to recover, according to Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN.
  • Nikola Jovic (Heat): Jovic is QUESTIONABLE for Wednesday’s (Nov. 30) game against Boston.
  • Jamal Cain (Heat): Cain is PROBABLE for Wednesday’s (Nov. 30) game against Boston.
  • Jimmy Butler (Heat): Butler is OUT for Wednesday’s (Nov. 30) game against Boston.
  • Caleb Martin (Heat): Martin is QUESTIONABLE for Wednesday’s (Nov. 30) game against Boston.
  • Haywood Highsmith (Heat): Highsmith is QUESTIONABLE for Wednesday’s (Nov. 30) game against Boston.
  • Victor Oladipo (Heat): Oladipo has not played this season and is not believed to be closed to returning to action, according to Brian Windhorst of ESPN.
  • Dewayne Dedmon (Heat): Dedmon is QUESTIONABLE for Wednesday’s (Nov. 30) game against Boston.
  • Omer Yurtseven (Heat): The Heat announced that Yurtseven underwent surgery and will be re-evaluated at a later date.
  • Duncan Robinson (Heat): Robinson did not play in Sunday’s (Nov. 27) game against Atlanta.
  • Tyler Herro (Heat): Herro is QUESTIONABLE for Wednesday’s (Nov. 30) game against Boston.

Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 41.0 points in the paint per game (1,802 points/44 games) on the road since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 46.7

The Heat have averaged 45.5 points in the paint per game (592 points/13 games) this season — 10th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 49.0

The Heat are shooting 87% from the free throw line (260/300) this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 78%

The Heat have averaged 12.9 turnovers per game (168 turnovers/13 games) this season — tied for 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 14.3

Boston Celtics Offensive Stats & Trends

The Celtics have averaged 1.38 points per shot (1,554 points/1,124 shots) this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.27

The Celtics have averaged 1.42 points per shot (812 points/570 shots) in the first half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.27

The Celtics have an assist to turnover ratio of 2.2 (342 assists/ 159 TOs) this season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.7

The Celtics have a TS% of 57% in the first half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 51%

Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 2.9 blocks per game (38 blocks/13 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1

The Heat have averaged 3.2 blocks per game (298 blocks/94 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Heat have averaged 3.0 blocks per game (152 blocks/50 games) at home since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

The Heat have averaged 3.5 blocks per game (281 blocks/80 games) on the road since the start of the 2020-21 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

Boston Celtics Defensive Stats & Trends

The Celtics have averaged 5.9 blocks per game (283 blocks/48 games) on the road since the start of the 2021-22 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.6

The Celtics have averaged 5.3 steals per game (69 steals/13 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.4

The Celtics have averaged 5.5 blocks per game (71 blocks/13 games) this season — tied for 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1

The Celtics have averaged 6.7 steals per game (562 steals/84 games) on the road since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.6


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