Miami Heat vs Memphis Grizzlies Prediction, Odds, Lines, Team Props – NBA, Dec. 5

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Dec 05, 2022, 4:30 PM
  • The Grizzlies (14-9) are -1.5 favorites vs. the Heat (11-12)
  • Total (Over/Under): 224.5 points
  • Monday, December 5, 2022 at 8:00pm EST
  • Watch the game on BSSE & BSSUN

The Miami Heat visit FedExForum to take on the Memphis Grizzlies on Monday. Tipoff is scheduled for 8:00pm EST in Memphis.

The Heat are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -4.5 (-110).

The Heat vs Grizzlies Over/Under is 218.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Heat are 8-14 against the spread, while the Grizzlies are 10-12 against the spread.


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Heat vs. Grizzlies Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Miami Heat-4.5 -110O 218.5 -110-185
Memphis Grizzlies +4.5 -110U 218.5 -110+150

Grizzlies vs Heat Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Grizzlies will win Monday‘s game with 53.6% confidence.

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Heat will cover the spread for Monday‘s game with 51.0% confidence.

These predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Heat and Grizzlies, plus recent team & player performances and defensive & offensive matchups over the last several NBA games.


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  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Moneyline in 58 of their last 95 games (+17.45 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 35 of their last 51 games (+16.52 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the Moneyline in 61 of their last 98 games (+14.55 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 54 of their last 95 games (+12.25 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have covered the 3Q Spread in 22 of their last 32 away games (+10.80 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Memphis Grizzlies have hit the 1H Moneyline in 67 of their last 94 games (+37.10 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Memphis Grizzlies have covered the 1H Spread in 63 of their last 94 games (+29.15 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Memphis Grizzlies have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 61 of their last 91 games (+24.60 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Memphis Grizzlies have covered the 1Q Spread in 59 of their last 91 games (+23.80 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Memphis Grizzlies have covered the Spread in 28 of their last 37 games at home (+18.10 Units / 44% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 8-14 (-7.4 Units / -29.25% ROI).

  • 11-12 against the Moneyline (-4.15 Units / -10.7% ROI)
  • 12-10 against the Over for game total points (+1 Units / 3.95% ROI)
  • 10-12 against the Under for game total points (-3.2 Units / -12.65% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Grizzlies have gone 10-12 (-3.2 Units / -12.65% ROI).

  • 14-9 against the Moneyline (+3 Units / 6.88% ROI)
  • 12-10 against the Over for game total points (+1 Units / 3.95% ROI)
  • 10-12 against the Under for game total points (-3.2 Units / -12.65% ROI)
  • The Memphis Grizzlies have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 27 of their last 73 games (-32.40 Units / -34% ROI)
  • The Memphis Grizzlies have only hit the Team Total Under in 37 of their last 90 games (-24.35 Units / -23% ROI)
  • The Memphis Grizzlies have only hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 25 of their last 71 games (-23.95 Units / -31% ROI)
  • The Memphis Grizzlies have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 34 of their last 85 games (-23.82 Units / -25% ROI)
  • The Memphis Grizzlies have only covered the 4Q Spread in 29 of their last 73 games (-19.68 Units / -24% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 42 of their last 96 games (-25.32 Units / -21% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 17 of their last 53 games (-23.01 Units / -39% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 1H Game Total Under in 40 of their last 99 games (-21.55 Units / -20% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 41 of their last 97 games (-21.29 Units / -20% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 2Q Moneyline in 47 of their last 99 games (-19.43 Units / -14% ROI)

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Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Memphis Grizzlies

The Heat are 45-18 (.714) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .564

The Heat are 16-12 (.571) when allowing 15 or more second chance points since the start of the 2021-22 season — 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .461

The Heat are 29-3 (.906) when shooting 40% or better from three since the start of the 2021-22 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .744

The Heat are 13-8 (.619) when their opponent attempts fewer than 15 free throws since the start of the 2020-21 season — 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .510

Memphis Grizzlies: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat

The Memphis Grizzlies are 4-16 (.200) when losing the rebounding margin since the start of the 2021-22 season — ninth-worst among NBA teams. The New Orleans Pelicans have averaged 45.2 rebounds per game (4,291 rebounds/95 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — sixth-highest among NBA teams.

The Grizzlies are 64-34 (.653) when they win the turnover margin since the start of the 2020-21 season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .567

The Grizzlies are 54-10 (.844) when scoring 110 or more points since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .704

The Grizzlies are 37-21 (.638) when attempting 25 or more free throws since the start of the 2020-21 season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .549

Injury Report: Grizzlies vs. HeatMonday‘s Game, Dec. 5

  • Desmond Bane (Grizzlies): The Grizzlies announced that Bane has a Grade 2 sprain and will be re-evaluated in 2-3 weeks.
  • Danny Green (Grizzlies): The 76ers announced that Green has a torn ACL and LCL in his left knee.
  • Ziaire Williams (Grizzlies): The Grizzlies announced that Williams is expected to return in 4-6 weeks.
  • Jake LaRavia (Grizzlies): LaRavia did not play in Sunday’s game (Dec. 4) against the Pistons.
  • Steven Adams (Grizzlies): Adams did not play in Sunday’s game (Dec. 4) against the Pistons.
  • Jimmy Butler (Heat): Butler is questionable for Monday’s (Dec. 5) game against Memphis.
  • Dewayne Dedmon (Heat): Dedmon is questionable for Monday’s (Dec. 5) game against Memphis.
  • Haywood Highsmith (Heat): Highsmith is probable for Monday’s (Dec. 5) game against Memphis.
  • Victor Oladipo (Heat): Oladipo has not played this season and is not believed to be closed to returning to action, according to Brian Windhorst of ESPN.
  • Gabe Vincent (Heat): Vincent is questionable for Monday’s (Dec. 5) game against Memphis.
  • Tyler Herro (Heat): Herro is probable for Monday’s (Dec. 5) game against Memphis.
  • Omer Yurtseven (Heat): The Heat announced that Yurtseven underwent surgery and will be re-evaluated at a later date.
  • Duncan Robinson (Heat): Robinson is probable for Monday’s (Dec. 5) game against Memphis.

Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 41.0 points in the paint per game (1,802 points/44 games) on the road since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 46.7

The Heat have averaged 45.5 points in the paint per game (592 points/13 games) this season — 10th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 49.0

The Heat are shooting 87% from the free throw line (260/300) this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 78%

The Heat have averaged 12.9 turnovers per game (168 turnovers/13 games) this season — tied for 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 14.3

Memphis Grizzlies Offensive Stats & Trends

The Grizzlies have averaged 27.9 points in the paint per game (4,632 points/166 games) in the second half since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 22.9

The Grizzlies have averaged 56.5 points in the paint per game (5,372 points/95 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 47.3

The Grizzlies have averaged 57.1 points in the paint per game (2,686 points/47 games) at home since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 47.8

The Grizzlies have averaged 56.7 points in the paint per game (4,760 points/84 games) on the road since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 47.1

Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 2.9 blocks per game (38 blocks/13 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1

The Heat have averaged 3.2 blocks per game (298 blocks/94 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Heat have averaged 3.0 blocks per game (152 blocks/50 games) at home since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

The Heat have averaged 3.5 blocks per game (281 blocks/80 games) on the road since the start of the 2020-21 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

Memphis Grizzlies Defensive Stats & Trends

The Grizzlies have averaged 9.2 steals per game (1,535 steals/167 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.6

The Grizzlies have averaged 6.1 blocks per game (294 blocks/48 games) on the road since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.6

The Grizzlies have averaged 9.3 steals per game (880 steals/95 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.6

The Grizzlies have averaged 9.1 steals per game (428 steals/47 games) at home since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.6


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