Heat vs Magic Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Mar. 11

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Mar 11, 2023, 4:30 PM
  • The Heat (36-32) are -2.5 favorites vs. the Magic (27-40)
  • Total (Over/Under): 219.5 points
  • Saturday, March 11, 2023 at 7:00pm EST
  • Watch the game on BSFL & BSSUN

The Miami Heat visit Amway Center to take on the Orlando Magic on Saturday. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:00pm EST in Orlando.

The Heat are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-110).

The Heat vs Magic Over/Under is 221.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Heat are 25-41 against the spread, while the Magic are 35-30 against the spread.


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Heat vs. Magic Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Miami Heat-2.5 -110O 221.5 -110-135
Orlando Magic +2.5 -110U 221.5 -110+115

Magic vs Heat Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Heat will win Saturday‘s game with 52.4% confidence.

Magic vs Heat Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Magic will cover the spread for Saturday‘s game with 51.0% confidence.

These predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Heat and Magic, plus recent team & player performances and defensive & offensive matchups over the last several NBA games.


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  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 41 of their last 69 games (+12.25 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 16 of their last 20 away games (+11.84 Units / 49% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have covered the 2Q Spread in 16 of their last 20 away games (+11.59 Units / 53% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 42 of their last 69 games (+11.21 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the Team Total Under in 50 of their last 84 games (+10.90 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Orlando Magic have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 42 games (+22.60 Units / 45% ROI)
  • The Orlando Magic have covered the 4Q Spread in 28 of their last 41 games at home (+13.76 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Orlando Magic have hit the 1H Moneyline in 21 of their last 41 games (+12.25 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Orlando Magic have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 34 of their last 59 games (+10.99 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Orlando Magic have covered the 3Q Spread in 27 of their last 42 games (+10.72 Units / 23% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 25-41 (-20.1 Units / -26.87% ROI).

  • 36-32 against the Moneyline (-15.6 Units / -12.31% ROI)
  • 30-37 against the Over for game total points (-10.7 Units / -14.3% ROI)
  • 37-30 against the Under for game total points (+4 Units / 5.35% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Magic have gone 35-30 (+2.05 Units / 2.78% ROI).

  • 27-40 against the Moneyline (+14.15 Units / 18.62% ROI)
  • 33-34 against the Over for game total points (-4.4 Units / -5.97% ROI)
  • 34-33 against the Under for game total points (-2.3 Units / -3.12% ROI)
  • The Orlando Magic have only hit the Team Total Under in 28 of their last 70 games (-20.75 Units / -26% ROI)
  • The Orlando Magic have only hit the 2Q Moneyline in 13 of their last 43 games at home (-19.29 Units / -40% ROI)
  • The Orlando Magic have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 36 of their last 82 games (-15.47 Units / -17% ROI)
  • The Orlando Magic have only hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 34 of their last 78 games (-14.90 Units / -17% ROI)
  • The Orlando Magic have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 28 of their last 63 games (-11.62 Units / -16% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the Team Total Over in 42 of their last 100 games (-24.80 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 27 of their last 68 games (-23.53 Units / -27% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 2H Moneyline in 23 of their last 58 games (-23.23 Units / -29% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only covered the Spread in 27 of their last 74 games (-22.50 Units / -28% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 28 of their last 71 games (-20.38 Units / -26% ROI)

Jump to:

Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Orlando Magic

The Heat are 45-14 (.763) when scoring 15 or more second chance points since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .542

The Heat are 29-13 (.690) when allowing fewer than 10 second chance points since the start of the 2021-22 season — 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .550

The Heat are 18-6 (.750) when winning the rebounding margin this season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .675

The Heat are 24-15 (.615) when allowing 15 or more second chance points since the start of the 2021-22 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .461

Orlando Magic: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat

The Orlando Magic are 11-19 (.367) when they lose the turnover margin this season — fifth-worst among NBA teams. The Charlotte Hornets have averaged 13.2 turnovers per game (793 turnovers/60 games) this season — tied for 10th-lowest among NBA teams.

The Orlando Magic are 5-20 (.200) when losing the rebounding margin this season — sixth-worst among NBA teams. The Charlotte Hornets have averaged 45.2 rebounds per game (2,712 rebounds/60 games) this season — sixth-highest among NBA teams.

The Orlando Magic are 12-60 (.167) when losing the rebounding margin since the start of the 2021-22 season — third-worst among NBA teams. The Charlotte Hornets have averaged 44.8 rebounds per game (6,367 rebounds/142 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for ninth-highest among NBA teams.

The Orlando Magic are 22-57 (.278) when they lose the turnover margin since the start of the 2021-22 season — third-worst among NBA teams. The Charlotte Hornets have averaged 12.9 turnovers per game (1,835 turnovers/142 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for eighth-lowest among NBA teams.

Injury Report: Magic vs. HeatSaturday‘s Game, Mar. 11

  • Jonathan Isaac (Magic): Jonathan Isaac underwent surgery to repair a torn left adductor, the Magic announced he will miss the rest of the regular-season. (Per. Woj)
  • Wendell Carter Jr. (Magic): Carter Jr. did not play in Thursday’s game (Mar. 9).
  • Kyle Lowry (Heat): Lowry has not played since Feb. 2 and no timetable has been announced for his return.
  • Nikola Jovic (Heat): Jovic has been out since Dec. 26 and remains without a timetable for return.
  • Duncan Robinson (Heat): Robinson out for Friday’s (Mar.10) game against Cleveland.

Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 51.4 points per game (3,033 points/59 games) in the second half this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 56.0

The Heat have averaged 108.0 points per game (6,374 points/59 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 114.3

The Heat are shooting 32% from three (316/999) in the second half this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 36%

The Heat have averaged 52.4 points per game (7,395 points/141 games) in the second half since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 54.9

Orlando Magic Offensive Stats & Trends

The Magic are shooting 43% (4,165/9,572) in the first half since the start of the 2020-21 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 47%

The Magic have averaged 107.1 points per game (15,208 points/142 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 112.2

The Magic have averaged 52.0 points per game (11,135 points/214 games) in the first half since the start of the 2020-21 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 56.5

The Magic have averaged 1.16 points per shot (11,135 points/9,572 shots) in the first half since the start of the 2020-21 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.26

Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 3.1 blocks per game (438 blocks/141 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Heat have averaged 2.9 blocks per game (173 blocks/59 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Heat have averaged 3.0 blocks per game (205 blocks/69 games) at home since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8

The Heat have averaged 3.4 blocks per game (724 blocks/213 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8

Orlando Magic Defensive Stats & Trends

The Magic have averaged 4.5 blocks per game (962 blocks/214 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — 10th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8

The Magic have averaged 34.3 defensive rebounds per game (4,868 rebounds/142 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 33.7

The Magic have averaged 6.9 steals per game (973 steals/142 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 5th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.5

The Magic have averaged 6.9 steals per game (1,469 steals/214 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for 5th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.5


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.