Basketball
Indiana PacersMiami Heat

Miami Heat vs Indiana Pacers Prediction, Odds, Lines, Team Props – NBA, Nov. 4

min read
 BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 04, 2022, 4:31 PM
  • The Heat (2-5) are -3.5 favorites vs. the Pacers (3-4)
  • Total (Over/Under): 226.5 points
  • Friday, November 4, 2022 at 7:00pm EDT
  • Watch the game on BSIN & BSSUN

The Miami Heat visit Gainbridge Fieldhouse to take on the Indiana Pacers on Friday. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:00pm EDT in Indianapolis.

The Heat are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-110).

The Heat vs Pacers Over/Under is 226.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Heat are 2-7 against the spread, while the Pacers are 4-4 against the spread.

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Heat vs. Pacers Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Miami Heat-3.5 -110O 226.5 -110-165
Indiana Pacers +3.5 -110U 226.5 -110135

Pacers vs Heat Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Heat will win Friday‘s game with 63.2% confidence.

Pacers vs Heat Spread Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Heat will cover the spread for Friday‘s game with 52.6% confidence.

These predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Heat and Pacers, plus recent team & player performances and defensive & offensive matchups over the last several NBA games.

  • The Miami Heat have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 55 of their last 88 games (+18.09 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Moneyline in 51 of their last 81 games (+17.60 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the Moneyline in 61 of their last 97 games (+15.25 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have covered the 3Q Spread in 19 of their last 24 away games (+13.40 Units / 50% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 2H Moneyline in 24 of their last 35 games (+11.38 Units / 24% ROI)
    •
  • The Indiana Pacers have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 52 of their last 74 games (+29.70 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 50 of their last 77 games (+19.43 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have hit the Game Total Over in 28 of their last 37 games at home (+18.10 Units / 44% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have hit the Team Total Over in 33 of their last 47 games (+17.05 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 40 of their last 61 games (+16.90 Units / 25% ROI)
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    Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 2-7 (-5.7 Units / -57.58% ROI).

    • 4-5 against the Moneyline (-4.35 Units / -30.21% ROI)
    • 4-5 against the Over for game total points (-1.5 Units / -15.15% ROI)
    • 5-4 against the Under for game total points (+0.6 Units / 6.06% ROI)

    Against the spread this NBA season, the Pacers have gone 4-4 (-0.4 Units / -4.55% ROI).

    • 3-5 against the Moneyline (+1.9 Units / 22.62% ROI)
    • 4-4 against the Over for game total points (-0.4 Units / -4.55% ROI)
    • 4-4 against the Under for game total points (-0.4 Units / -4.55% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have only hit the 1H Game Total Under in 22 of their last 78 games (-37.40 Units / -44% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have only hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 27 of their last 77 games (-29.01 Units / -34% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 21 of their last 70 games (-28.30 Units / -36% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have only hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 76 games (-28.00 Units / -27% ROI)
  • The Indiana Pacers have only covered the 1Q Spread in 22 of their last 67 games (-27.10 Units / -36% ROI)
    •
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 35 of their last 92 games (-28.38 Units / -27% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 37 of their last 88 games (-26.62 Units / -24% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 2Q Moneyline in 41 of their last 92 games (-26.08 Units / -20% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only covered the 2Q Spread in 14 of their last 43 games (-17.61 Units / -37% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only covered the 4Q Spread in 38 of their last 88 games (-16.99 Units / -18% ROI)
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    Jump to:

    Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Indiana Pacers

    The Miami Heat were 25-9 (.735) when they win the turnover margin last season — fifth-best among NBA teams. The Golden State Warriors averaged 14.3 turnovers per game (1,173 turnovers/82 games) last season — second-highest among NBA teams.

    The Heat were 27-3 (.900) when forcing an eFG of 50% or worse last season — tied for 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .772

    The Heat were 36-8 (.818) when winning the rebounding margin last season — tied for 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .693

    The Heat are 53-25 (.679) when they win the turnover margin since the start of the 2020-21 season — 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .565

    Indiana Pacers: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat

    The Pacers were 6-17 (.261) when attempting 25 or more free throws last season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .550

    The Pacers were 11-25 (.306) when allowing 15 or more second chance points last season — 5th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .453

    The Pacers are 8-37 (.178) when their eFG is 50% or worse since the start of the 2020-21 season — 6th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .221

    The Pacers are 24-33 (.421) when scoring 15 or more second chance points since the start of the 2020-21 season — 5th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .548

    Injury Report: Pacers vs. Heat – Friday‘s Game, Nov. 4

  • Aaron Nesmith (Pacers): Nesmith did not play in Monday’s (Oct. 31) game against Brooklyn.
  • Daniel Theis (Pacers): Theis did not play in Monday’s (Oct. 31) game against Brooklyn.
  • Isaiah Jackson (Pacers): The Pacers announced that Jackson left Monday’s (Oct. 31) game and will not return.
    •
  • Victor Oladipo (Heat): Oladipo is out for Friday’s (Nov. 4) game against Indiana.
  • Omer Yurtseven (Heat): Yurtseven is out for Friday’s (Nov. 4) game against Indiana.
  • Bam Adebayo (Heat): Adebayo is questionable for Friday’s (Nov. 4) game against Indiana.
  • Jimmy Butler (Heat): Butler is out for Friday’s (Nov. 4) game against Indiana.
    •

    Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends

    The Heat shot 38% from three (1,100/2,888) last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35%

    The Heat averaged 42.9 points in the paint per game (3,476 points/81 games) last season — tied for 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 47.0

    The Heat shot 39% from three (562/1,461) on the road last season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35%

    The Heat shot 38% from three (548/1,431) in the first half last season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 36%

    Indiana Pacers Offensive Stats & Trends

    The Pacers shot 34% from three (994/2,884) last season — 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 35%

    The Pacers had an assist to turnover ratio of 1.6 (916 assists/ 561 TOs) in the second half last season — tied for 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8

    The Pacers averaged 52.1 points per game (4,271 points/82 games) in the second half last season — 6th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 54.1

    The Pacers averaged 7.3 fast break points per game (598 points/82 games) in the first half last season — tied for 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 6.7

    Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends

    The Heat averaged 3.2 blocks per game (260 blocks/81 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

    The Heat have averaged 3.6 blocks per game (277 blocks/77 games) at home since the start of the 2020-21 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

    The Heat have averaged 3.6 blocks per game (546 blocks/153 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8

    The Heat have averaged 3.5 blocks per game (269 blocks/76 games) on the road since the start of the 2020-21 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

    Indiana Pacers Defensive Stats & Trends

    The Pacers have averaged 6.0 blocks per game (460 blocks/77 games) on the road since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

    The Pacers have averaged 6.0 blocks per game (917 blocks/154 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8

    The Pacers averaged 32.4 defensive rebounds per game (2,657 rebounds/82 games) last season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 33.9

    The Pacers have averaged 33.0 defensive rebounds per game (5,081 rebounds/154 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for 6th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 34.1

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    Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

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