NBA Playoff Predictions: Play-In Tournament Bets

The NBA regular season has concluded, and bettors are only a round away from the start of the playoffs. 

Before the traditional structure begins, eight teams will compete in a play-in tournament to fill the seven and eight seeds. 

The format was introduced in 2021. The winner of the 7-8 matchup fills the former seed, while the losers play the winner of the 9-10 matchup for the latter seeds. 

Here’s a look at NBA playoff odds at the BetMGM online sportsbook as well as my early bets for the games. 

NBA Play-In Tournament Prediction – Pelicans vs. Kings

C.J. McCollum Over 3.5 3PT’s (-140)

If there’s one thing we know about the Kings defense, it’s that they struggle to defend from beyond the arc. 

McCollum only played three games against Sacramento, but he largely proved efficient at clearing this number. 

In those contests, he cleared 3.5 three-pointers twice, with his lone failure coming via the hook. 

Although New Orleans doesn’t attempt a lot of threes – they ranked 22nd in shot distribution from that area during the regular season – they convert at a high rate. 

According to dunksandthrees.com, New Orleans ranked fourth in three-point field goal percentage, while the Kings ranked 29th in the corresponding defensive category. 

Plus, New Orleans attempted 32.8 three-pointers per game in five meetings with Sacramento, including 35.3 with McCollum in the lineup. 

That’s up from a season average of 32.6 attempts from deep, so it’s clear New Orleans recognizes there’s a weakness on the other side. 

As a result, back McCollum to continue his success against Sacramento. 

NBA Play-In Tournament Prediction – Heat vs. Bulls

Chicago Bulls Team Total Under 103.5 Points (-120)

Jimmy Butler may be out for Friday’s elimination game, but he’s actually not the most important Heat player in terms of their defensive effort. 

That moniker belongs to center Bam Adebayo. According to basketball-reference.com, Miami sees their opponent’s offensive rating rise by 2.5 points without their rim protector on the court. 

Adebayo played in two of four head-to-head meetings against Chicago this season, and the games produced radically different splits. 

In the two games with Adebayo, Miami held Chicago under this number both times, with the Bulls averaging 101 points per game. 

Sample the two games in which Adebayo didn’t play and bettors will find they allowed 120 points per game and failed to keep Chicago under this number. 

That makes this a great sell-high spot on the Bulls offense, which just cleared 130 against a Hawks defense 27th in adjusted defensive rating, per dunksandthrees.com. 

However, the Heat are fifth in that metric. Expect a less efficient showing from the Bulls on Friday in South Beach.