Nuggets vs Rockets Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Apr. 4

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Apr 04, 2023, 5:30 PM
  • The Nuggets are -9.5 favorites vs. the Rockets
  • Total (Over/Under): 230.5 points
  • Tuesday, April 4, 2023 at 8:00pm EDT
  • Watch the game on SportsNet SW & ALT2

The Denver Nuggets visit Toyota Center to take on the Houston Rockets on Tuesday. Tipoff is scheduled for 8:00pm EDT in Houston.

The Nuggets are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -8.5 (-110).

The Nuggets vs Rockets Over/Under is 230.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Nuggets are 42-35 against the spread, while the Rockets are 30-45 against the spread.


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Nuggets vs. Rockets Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Denver Nuggets-8.5 -110O 230.5 -105-400
Houston Rockets +8.5 -110U 230.5 -105+310

Rockets vs Nuggets Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Nuggets will win Tuesday‘s game with 72.9% confidence.

Rockets vs Nuggets Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Nuggets will cover the spread for Tuesday‘s game with 52.0% confidence.

These predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Nuggets and Rockets, plus recent team & player performances and defensive & offensive matchups over the last several NBA games.


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  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 53 of their last 74 games (+29.22 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the Team Total Under in 27 of their last 41 away games (+10.85 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 23 of their last 34 games (+10.62 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have covered the Spread in 30 of their last 49 games (+10.20 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 41 of their last 71 games (+8.90 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Houston Rockets have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 42 of their last 68 games (+15.61 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Houston Rockets have hit the 1H Moneyline in 20 of their last 40 games at home (+11.95 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Houston Rockets have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 15 of their last 24 games at home (+11.05 Units / 44% ROI)
  • The Houston Rockets have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 22 of their last 33 games at home (+9.90 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Houston Rockets have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 41 of their last 71 games (+8.95 Units / 11% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Nuggets have gone 42-35 (+3.5 Units / 4.08% ROI).

  • 52-26 against the Moneyline (+6 Units / 2.79% ROI)
  • 36-41 against the Over for game total points (-9.1 Units / -10.61% ROI)
  • 41-36 against the Under for game total points (+1.4 Units / 1.63% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Rockets have gone 30-45 (-19.45 Units / -22.39% ROI).

  • 19-60 against the Moneyline (-19.65 Units / -23.76% ROI)
  • 41-38 against the Over for game total points (-0.8 Units / -0.92% ROI)
  • 38-41 against the Under for game total points (-7.1 Units / -8.17% ROI)
  • The Houston Rockets have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 24 of their last 70 games (-24.99 Units / -31% ROI)
  • The Houston Rockets have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 27 of their last 81 games (-23.47 Units / -28% ROI)
  • The Houston Rockets have only hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 52 games (-23.05 Units / -42% ROI)
  • The Houston Rockets have only covered the Spread in 30 of their last 80 games (-20.55 Units / -23% ROI)
  • The Houston Rockets have only covered the 4Q Spread in 33 of their last 81 games (-20.28 Units / -23% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 21 of their last 74 games (-38.91 Units / -47% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 36 of their last 86 games (-25.53 Units / -23% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 16 of their last 41 away games (-20.55 Units / -33% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only covered the 4Q Spread in 37 of their last 86 games (-17.37 Units / -18% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the Team Total Over in 14 of their last 41 away games (-17.20 Units / -36% ROI)

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Denver Nuggets: Keys to the Game vs. the Houston Rockets

The Nuggets are 45-16 (.738) when attempting 25 or more free throws since the start of the 2020-21 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .541

The Nuggets are 29-9 (.763) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .566

The Nuggets are 16-5 (.762) when attempting 25 or more free throws this season — tied for 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .531

The Nuggets are 13-9 (.591) when allowing 15 or more second chance points this season — 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .468

Houston Rockets: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Nuggets

The Rockets are 8-84 (.087) when their eFG is 50% or worse since the start of the 2020-21 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .225

The Houston Rockets are 1-16 (.059) when losing the rebounding margin this season — worst among NBA teams. The New Orleans Pelicans have averaged 51.9 rebounds per game (3,579 rebounds/69 games) this season — 10th-highest among NBA teams.

The Rockets are 23-78 (.225) when attempting 25 or more free throws since the start of the 2020-21 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .542

The Rockets are 13-52 (.200) when scoring fewer second chance points than their opponent since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .452

Injury Report: Rockets vs. NuggetsTuesday‘s Game, Apr. 4

  • Jae’Sean Tate (Rockets): Tate is out for Tuesday’s (Apr. 4) game against Denver.
  • Jamal Murray (Nuggets): Murray is probable for Tuesday’s (Apr. 4) game against Houston.
  • Zeke Nnaji (Nuggets): Nnaji is questionable for Tuesday’s (Apr. 4) game against Houston.
  • Nikola Jokic (Nuggets): Jokic is questionable for Tuesday’s (Apr. 4) game against Houston.
  • Collin Gillespie (Nuggets): Gillespie has not played this season and no timetable has been announced for his return.

Denver Nuggets Offensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets are shooting 51% (5,068/9,911) in the first half since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 47%

The Nuggets are shooting 51% (3,413/6,651) in the first half since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 47%

The Nuggets are shooting 52% (1,623/3,125) at home this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48%

The Nuggets have an eFG% of 58% in the first half since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 54%

Houston Rockets Offensive Stats & Trends

The Rockets have an assist to turnover ratio of 1.4 (2,538 assists/ 1,760 TOs) in the second half since the start of the 2020-21 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.7

The Rockets have an assist to turnover ratio of 1.3 (779 assists/ 587 TOs) at home this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8

The Rockets have an assist to turnover ratio of 1.3 (1,703 assists/ 1,262 TOs) on the road since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.7

The Rockets have an assist to turnover ratio of 1.3 (749 assists/ 577 TOs) in the second half this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.7

Denver Nuggets Defensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets have averaged 4.2 blocks per game (928 blocks/222 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Nuggets have averaged 4.0 blocks per game (308 blocks/77 games) at home since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8

The Nuggets have 513 steals this season — 10th most among NBA teams

The Nuggets have averaged 4.0 blocks per game (605 blocks/150 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — 4th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

Houston Rockets Defensive Stats & Trends

The Rockets have averaged 35.3 defensive rebounds per game (7,861 rebounds/223 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — 9th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 36.0

The Rockets have forced 13.1 turnovers per game (457 turnovers/35 games) at home this season — 6th lowest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 14.3

The Rockets have forced 13.3 turnovers per game (916 turnovers/69 games) this season — 8th lowest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 14.2

The Rockets have forced 13.5 turnovers per game (459 turnovers/34 games) on the road this season — 10th lowest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 14.1


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.