Nuggets vs Timberwolves Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Apr. 21

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Apr 21, 2023, 5:30 PM
  • The Nuggets (53-29) are -2.5 favorites vs. the Timberwolves (42-40)
  • Total (Over/Under): 222.5 points
  • Friday, April 21, 2023 at 9:30pm EDT
  • Watch the game on BSN

The Denver Nuggets visit Target Center to take on the Minnesota Timberwolves on Friday. Tipoff is scheduled for 9:30pm EDT in Minneapolis.

The Nuggets are betting favorites in this NBA playoff matchup, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-110).

The Nuggets vs Timberwolves Over/Under is 222.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Nuggets are 46-37 against the spread, while the Timberwolves are 42-44 against the spread.


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Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Denver Nuggets-2.5 -110O 222.5 -110-135
Minnesota Timberwolves +2.5 -110U 222.5 -110+115

Timberwolves vs Nuggets Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Nuggets will win Friday‘s game with 58.6% confidence.

Timberwolves vs Nuggets Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Nuggets will cover the spread for Friday‘s game with 54.0% confidence.

These predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Nuggets and Timberwolves, plus recent team & player performances and defensive & offensive matchups over the last several NBA games.


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  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 57 of their last 80 games (+30.92 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have covered the Spread in 34 of their last 55 games (+12.00 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 26 of their last 40 games (+10.21 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the Team Total Under in 27 of their last 42 away games (+9.60 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 15 games (+7.70 Units / 47% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have hit the 1H Moneyline in 38 of their last 63 games (+20.35 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 56 of their last 90 games (+19.01 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have covered the 2Q Spread in 41 of their last 62 games (+17.96 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have covered the 1Q Spread in 54 of their last 90 games (+14.75 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have covered the 1H Spread in 39 of their last 62 games (+14.05 Units / 21% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Nuggets have gone 46-37 (+5.3 Units / 5.74% ROI).

  • 55-29 against the Moneyline (-1.2 Units / -0.51% ROI)
  • 39-44 against the Over for game total points (-9.4 Units / -10.17% ROI)
  • 44-39 against the Under for game total points (+1.1 Units / 1.19% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Timberwolves have gone 42-44 (-6.4 Units / -6.76% ROI).

  • 43-43 against the Moneyline (-25.05 Units / -14.68% ROI)
  • 40-46 against the Over for game total points (-10.6 Units / -11.21% ROI)
  • 46-40 against the Under for game total points (+2 Units / 2.11% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have only hit the 2H Moneyline in 32 of their last 90 games (-40.67 Units / -34% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 33 of their last 90 games (-30.31 Units / -30% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have only hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 12 games at home (-27.10 Units / -67% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have only hit the Team Total Over in 38 of their last 90 games (-21.50 Units / -21% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Timberwolves have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 31 of their last 73 games (-18.01 Units / -21% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 23 of their last 80 games (-41.22 Units / -46% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 28 away games (-23.15 Units / -33% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 13 of their last 35 away games (-22.90 Units / -41% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 14 of their last 42 away games (-18.67 Units / -37% ROI)
  • The Denver Nuggets have only hit the Team Total Over in 15 of their last 42 away games (-16.35 Units / -34% ROI)

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Denver Nuggets: Keys to the Game vs. the Minnesota Timberwolves

The Nuggets are 15-3 (.833) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .555

The Denver Nuggets are 42-13 (.764) when they win the turnover margin since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams. The Minnesota Timberwolves have averaged 14.8 turnovers per game (2,433 turnovers/164 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for third-highest among NBA teams.

The Denver Nuggets are 69-24 (.742) when winning the rebounding margin since the start of the 2021-22 season — sixth-best among NBA teams. The Minnesota Timberwolves have averaged 51.1 rebounds per game (8,388 rebounds/164 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 10th-lowest among NBA teams.

The Nuggets are 48-18 (.727) when attempting 25 or more free throws since the start of the 2020-21 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .545

Minnesota Timberwolves: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Nuggets

The Minnesota Timberwolves are 58-34 (.630) when they win the turnover margin since the start of the 2021-22 season — ninth-best among NBA teams. The Denver Nuggets have averaged 14.5 turnovers per game (2,381 turnovers/164 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for eighth-highest among NBA teams.

The Timberwolves are 50-53 (.485) when scoring 15 or more second chance points since the start of the 2020-21 season — 10th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .542

The Timberwolves are 33-57 (.367) when they lose the turnover margin since the start of the 2020-21 season — 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .455

The Timberwolves are 51-27 (.654) when scoring 15 or more fastbreak points since the start of the 2021-22 season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .564

Injury Report: Timberwolves vs. NuggetsFriday‘s Game, Apr. 21

  • Naz Reid (Timberwolves): Reid who last played (Mar. 29) will undergo surgery on his fractured left wrist and will be sidelined for six weeks, according to ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski.
  • Rudy Gobert (Timberwolves): The Timberwolves have listed Gobert as QUESTIONABLE for Friday’s game (Apr. 21) against the Nuggets.
  • Jaylen Nowell (Timberwolves): The Timberwolves have listed Nowell as QUESTIONABLE for Friday’s game (Apr. 21) against the Nuggets.
  • Jaden McDaniels (Timberwolves): The Timberwolves announced that McDaniels suffered fractures in his right hand and is out indefinitely.
  • Nikola Jokic (Nuggets): The Nuggets have listed Jokic as PROBABLE for Friday’s game (Apr. 21) against the Timberwolves.

Denver Nuggets Offensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets are shooting 51% (5,378/10,546) in the first half since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 47%

The Nuggets are shooting 50% (3,554/7,136) at home since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 47%

The Nuggets are shooting 51% (3,723/7,286) in the first half since the start of the 2021-22 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 47%

The Nuggets have averaged 29.9 assists per game (1,227 assists/41 games) at home this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 25.6

Minnesota Timberwolves Offensive Stats & Trends

The Timberwolves have averaged 1.32 points per shot (9,494 points/7,167 shots) this season — tied for 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.30

The Timberwolves have an eFG% of 55% since the start of the 2021-22 season — 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 54%

The Timberwolves have averaged 50.9 points in the paint per game (8,352 points/164 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 48.8

The Timberwolves have made 13.4 three-pointers per game since the start of the 2020-21 season — 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.5

Denver Nuggets Defensive Stats & Trends

The Nuggets have averaged 4.2 blocks per game (496 blocks/118 games) on the road since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.6

The Nuggets have averaged 4.1 blocks per game (673 blocks/164 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 4th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Nuggets have averaged 4.0 blocks per game (329 blocks/82 games) at home since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8

The Nuggets have averaged 4.2 blocks per game (500 blocks/118 games) at home since the start of the 2020-21 season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8

Minnesota Timberwolves Defensive Stats & Trends

The Timberwolves have averaged 5.4 blocks per game (444 blocks/82 games) this season — 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Timberwolves have averaged 5.5 blocks per game (904 blocks/164 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Timberwolves have averaged 8.5 steals per game (2,010 steals/236 games) since the start of the 2020-21 season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.5

The Timberwolves have averaged 8.0 steals per game (657 steals/82 games) this season — tied for 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.3


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