Oklahoma City Thunder vs Miami Heat Prediction, Odds, Lines, Team Props – NBA, Jan. 10

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jan 10, 2023, 4:30 PM
  • The Heat (21-20) are -4.5 favorites vs. the Thunder (18-22)
  • Total (Over/Under): 224.5 points
  • Tuesday, January 10, 2023 at 7:30pm EST
  • Watch the game on TNT & TNT

The Oklahoma City Thunder visit FTX Arena to take on the Miami Heat on Tuesday. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EST in Miami.

The Heat are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-105).

The Thunder vs Heat Over/Under is 222.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Thunder are 24-16 against the spread, while the Heat are 16-23 against the spread.


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Thunder vs. Heat Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Oklahoma City Thunder+2.5 -115O 222.5 -105+110
Miami Heat -2.5 -105U 222.5 -105-130

Heat vs Thunder Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Heat will win Tuesday‘s game with 58.7% confidence.

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Thunder will cover the spread for Tuesday‘s game with 51.0% confidence.

These predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Thunder and Heat, plus recent team & player performances and defensive & offensive matchups over the last several NBA games.


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  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the 2H Moneyline in 39 of their last 66 games (+31.16 Units / 45% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 74 games (+22.60 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the Game Total Over in 41 of their last 66 games (+14.60 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the Team Total Over in 42 of their last 66 games (+14.25 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 48 of their last 79 games (+13.07 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 29 of their last 42 games (+14.28 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Moneyline in 60 of their last 99 games (+12.40 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 27 of their last 42 games (+11.60 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 35 of their last 56 games (+10.91 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 41 of their last 69 games (+9.91 Units / 12% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Thunder have gone 24-16 (+6.45 Units / 14.66% ROI).

  • 18-22 against the Moneyline (+10.9 Units / 23.93% ROI)
  • 23-16 against the Over for game total points (+5.4 Units / 12.27% ROI)
  • 16-23 against the Under for game total points (-9.3 Units / -21.14% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 16-23 (-9.3 Units / -20.62% ROI).

  • 21-20 against the Moneyline (-15.3 Units / -19.37% ROI)
  • 18-22 against the Over for game total points (-6.2 Units / -13.75% ROI)
  • 22-18 against the Under for game total points (+2.2 Units / 4.88% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 44 of their last 99 games (-25.58 Units / -21% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 1H Game Total Under in 41 of their last 100 games (-20.70 Units / -19% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 14 of their last 44 games (-20.32 Units / -41% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the Team Total Over in 44 of their last 99 games (-19.45 Units / -17% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 28 of their last 71 games (-19.15 Units / -24% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 17 of their last 80 games (-33.40 Units / -39% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the Team Total Under in 33 of their last 83 games (-23.95 Units / -25% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 32 of their last 81 games (-23.64 Units / -26% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 34 of their last 83 games (-21.79 Units / -23% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 76 games (-21.60 Units / -26% ROI)

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Oklahoma City Thunder: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat

The Oklahoma City Thunder are 11-47 (.190) when losing the rebounding margin since the start of the 2021-22 season — seventh-worst among NBA teams. The Boston Celtics have averaged 45.1 rebounds per game (4,280 rebounds/95 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — seventh-highest among NBA teams.

The Thunder are winless (0-31) when allowing an eFG of 60% or better since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .141

The Thunder are 17-34 (.333) when scoring 15 or more second chance points since the start of the 2020-21 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .544

The Thunder are 6-15 (.286) when allowing fewer than 8 offense rebounds since the start of the 2021-22 season — 6th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .480

Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Oklahoma City Thunder

The Heat are 45-18 (.714) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points since the start of the 2020-21 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .564

The Heat are 16-12 (.571) when allowing 15 or more second chance points since the start of the 2021-22 season — 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .461

The Heat are 29-3 (.906) when shooting 40% or better from three since the start of the 2021-22 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .744

The Heat are 13-8 (.619) when their opponent attempts fewer than 15 free throws since the start of the 2020-21 season — 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .510

Injury Report: Heat vs. ThunderTuesday‘s Game, Jan. 10

  • Caleb Martin (Heat): Martin is out for Monday’s (Jan. 10) game against Oklahoma City.
  • Nikola Jovic (Heat): Jovic is sidelined for 4 weeks with a lower-back stress reaction and will then be re-evaluated.
  • Gabe Vincent (Heat): Vincent is probable for Monday’s (Jan. 10) game against Oklahoma City.
  • Bam Adebayo (Heat): Adebayo is questionable for Monday’s (Jan. 10) game against Oklahoma City.
  • Tyler Herro (Heat): Herro is questionable for Monday’s (Jan. 10) game against Oklahoma City.
  • Omer Yurtseven (Heat): The Heat announced that Yurtseven underwent surgery and will be re-evaluated at a later date.
  • Kyle Lowry (Heat): Lowry is out for Monday’s (Jan. 10) game against Oklahoma City.
  • Udonis Haslem (Heat): Haslem is questionable for Monday’s (Jan. 10) game against Oklahoma City.
  • Duncan Robinson (Heat): Robinson will have surgery and will be re-evaluated in four weeks.
  • Dewayne Dedmon (Heat): Dedmon is probable for Monday’s (Jan. 10) game against Oklahoma City.
  • Chet Holmgren (Thunder): Holmgren will miss the 2022-23 season with Lisfranc injury to his right foot, according to Adrian Wojnarowsk of ESPN.
  • Ousmane Dieng (Thunder): Dieng suffered a fracture in his right wrist during Wednesday’s (Dec 14) Oklahoma City Blue game and will be re-evaluated in six weeks, Brandon Rahbar of DailyThunder.com reports.
  • Aleksej Pokusevski (Thunder): Thunder announced Pokusevski suffered a non-displaced tibial plateau fracture in his left leg and will be reevaluated in 6-8 weeks.
  • Jeremiah Robinson-Earl (Thunder): Robinson-Earl hasn’t played since Dec. 12 against Dallas. A timetable for his return hasn’t been announced.

Oklahoma City Thunder Offensive Stats & Trends

The Thunder are shooting 33% from three (2,000/6,055) since the start of the 2020-21 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 36%

The Thunder have averaged 1.19 points per shot (8,637 points/7,246 shots) in the second half since the start of the 2020-21 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.28

The Thunder have an eFG% of 50% since the start of the 2021-22 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 53%

The Thunder have averaged 1.17 points per shot (8,646 points/7,398 shots) on the road since the start of the 2020-21 season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.25

Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 41.0 points in the paint per game (1,802 points/44 games) on the road since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 46.7

The Heat have averaged 45.5 points in the paint per game (592 points/13 games) this season — 10th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 49.0

The Heat are shooting 87% from the free throw line (260/300) this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 78%

The Heat have averaged 12.9 turnovers per game (168 turnovers/13 games) this season — tied for 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 14.3

Oklahoma City Thunder Defensive Stats & Trends

The Thunder have averaged 9.2 steals per game (119 steals/13 games) this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.4

The Thunder have averaged 7.8 steals per game (742 steals/95 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.6

The Thunder have blocked 81 shots this season — 4th most among NBA teams

The Thunder have averaged 6.2 blocks per game (81 blocks/13 games) this season — 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1

Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 2.9 blocks per game (38 blocks/13 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1

The Heat have averaged 3.2 blocks per game (298 blocks/94 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Heat have averaged 3.0 blocks per game (152 blocks/50 games) at home since the start of the 2021-22 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

The Heat have averaged 3.5 blocks per game (281 blocks/80 games) on the road since the start of the 2020-21 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.