- The Colts are -1 point favorites vs the Bears
- Total (Over/Under): 43.5 points
- Watch this game on CBS
The Chicago Bears (1-1-0) visit Lucas Oil Stadium to take on the Indianapolis Colts (0-2-0) on Sep. 22. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in Indianapolis, IN.
The Colts are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -1 (-110).
The Bears vs. Colts Over/Under is 43.5 total points for the game.
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Bears vs. Colts Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Bears | +1 -110 | 43.5 -110 | +100 |
| Colts | -1 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -120 |
Bears vs. Colts Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Bears will win this game with 51.2% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Bears vs Colts Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Bears will cover the spread with 51.5% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Bears players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Bears Player Prop Bets Today
- Cairo Santos has hit the Field Goals Over in 11 of his last 17 games (+6.00 Units / 34% ROI)
- Roschon Johnson has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.55 Units / 44% ROI)
- Roschon Johnson has hit the Receptions Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+5.50 Units / 85% ROI)
- Cole Kmet has hit the Receptions Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+5.10 Units / 29% ROI)
- Roschon Johnson has hit the Longest Rush Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 81% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Colts players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Colts Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Kylen Granson has hit the Receptions Under in 11 of his last 14 games (+7.10 Units / 34% ROI)
- Joe Flacco has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last 6 games (+6.05 Units / 90% ROI)
- Joe Flacco has hit the Interceptions Over in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 68% ROI)
- Matt Gay has hit the Field Goals Over in his last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 78% ROI)
- Jonathan Taylor has hit the Longest Reception Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 74% ROI)
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Colts vs Bears
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| D.J. Moore (CHI) | 61.5 -120 | 61.5 -115 |
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Colts vs Bears
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor (IND) | 75.5 -115 | 75.5 -115 |
| D’Andre Swift (CHI) | 52.5 -115 | 52.5 -115 |
Bears Best Bets:
- The Chicago Bears have scored first in 10 of their last 13 games (+8.20 Units / 57% ROI)
- The Chicago Bears have covered the Spread in 13 of their last 21 games (+7.65 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Chicago Bears have covered the 1Q Spread in 9 of their last 11 away games (+6.65 Units / 46% ROI)
- The Chicago Bears have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 21 games (+5.50 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Chicago Bears have covered the 1H Spread in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.10 Units / 23% ROI)
Colts Best Bets:
- The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.90 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Indianapolis Colts have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games at home (+4.70 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.65 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Indianapolis Colts have hit the Team Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+4.60 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 games at home (+3.50 Units / 26% ROI)
Bears Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Bears art 1-0 (+1 Units / 45.45% ROI).
- Bears are 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- Bears are 0-2 when betting the Over for -2.2 Units / -100% ROI
- Bears are 2-0 when betting the Under for +2 Units / ROI
Colts Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Colts are 1-1 (-0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI).
- Colts are 0-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.35 Units / -100% ROI
- Colts are 1-1 when betting the Over for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
- Colts are 1-1 when betting the Under for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
Chicago Bears: Keys to the Game vs. the Indianapolis Colts
The Bears were winless (0-6) when trailing at the end of the third quarter last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .148.
The Bears are winless (0-7) when allowing 22 or more points since the 2022 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .218.
The Bears are 4-13 (.235) when within 7 points at the two minute warning since the 2022 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .496.
The Bears were 1-7 (.125) when losing at least one fumble last season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .382.
Indianapolis Colts: Keys to the Game vs. the Chicago Bears
The Colts are 3-5-1 (.333) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .730.
The Colts are 2-8 (.200) when throwing at least 1 interception since the 2023 season — T-8th-worst in NFL. The Bears have intercepted 24 passes since the 2023 season — T-most in NFL.
The Colts are winless (0-9) when trailing at the end of the third quarter since the 2022 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .146.
The Colts were 2-4 (.333) when rushing less than 25 times last season — T-8th-best in NFL; League Avg: .276.
Additional Matchup Notes for Chicago Bears vs. Indianapolis Colts
The Colts have been successful on just 37.0% of plays they have ran against a stacked front since the 2023 season — 5th-worst in NFL. The Bears have allowed their opponents to be successful on just 38.0% of plays with a stacked front since the 2023 season — 4th-best in NFL.
The Colts have run successful plays on just 21.4% of pass attempts with motion this season — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Bears have allowed successful plays on just 20.7% of pass attempts against motion this season — best in NFL.
The Colts ran successful plays on just 32.1% of pass attempts against a base rush last week — 2nd-worst in NFL. The Bears allowed successful plays on just 32.3% of pass attempts with a base rush last week — 3rd-best in NFL.
The Bears have rushed for 2,573 yards since the 2023 season — 5th-most in NFL. The Colts have allowed 2,590 yards rushing since the 2023 season — 4th-most in NFL.
The Bears have thrown the ball 66.7% of the time in the red zone this season — T-2nd-highest in NFL. The Colts have allowed 3 receiving touchdowns when defending in the red zone this season — T-2nd-most in NFL.
Chicago Bears Offense: Important Stats
The Bears averaged -0.76 epa per play against a light rush last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.04.
The Bears have averaged -0.73 epa per play against a light rush since the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.03.
The Bears have averaged -0.37 epa per play against a base front this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.02.
The Bears have run none of their plays in the red zone in the 2nd half this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 15%.
Indianapolis Colts Offense: Important Stats
The Colts have thrown 49% of their pass attempts 1 to 10 yards downfield this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 71%.
The Colts converted first downs on just 61 of 279 plays (22%) in the 4th quarter last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 26%.
The Colts have run successful plays on 33% of rush attempts against a stacked front since the 2022 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 44%.
The Colts turned the ball over on downs 6 times in the red zone last season — most in NFL.
Chicago Bears Defense: Important Stats
The Bears defense has allowed successful plays on 21% of pass attempts on motion plays this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 45%.
The Bears defense has allowed successful plays on 20% of pass attempts with a base front this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.
The Bears defense has allowed a passer rating of 113.4 on 3rd and long (168 Pass Attempts) since the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 80.3.
The Bears defense allowed a third down conversion rate of 76% on 3rd and short last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 59%.
Indianapolis Colts Defense: Important Stats
The Colts defense has allowed a passer rating of 146.7 with a base front (20 Pass Attempts) this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 89.0.
Offenses facing the Colts have thrown the ball 32% of the time (46 Pass Attempts/143 plays) this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 50%.
The Colts defense allowed successful plays on 88% of pass attempts with a stacked front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 50%.
The Colts defense allowed -1.03 epa per play with a stacked front in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.01.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
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