- The Bears are -2.5 point favorites vs the Commanders
- Total (Over/Under): 43 points
- Watch this game on CBS
The Chicago Bears (4-2-0) visit Northwest Stadium to take on the Washington Commanders (5-2-0) on Oct. 27. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25pm EDT in Landover, MD.
The Bears are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -3 (-105).
The Bears vs. Commanders Over/Under is 43 total points for the game.
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Bears vs. Commanders Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Bears | -3 -105 | 43 -110 | -150 |
| Commanders | +3 -115 | 43 -110 | +125 |
Bears vs. Commanders Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Bears will win this game with 63.5% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Bears vs Commanders Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Bears will cover the spread with 53.0% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Bears players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Bears Player Prop Bets Today
- Cole Kmet has hit the Receptions Over in 12 of his last 14 games (+10.10 Units / 57% ROI)
- Cole Kmet has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.80 Units / 50% ROI)
- Roschon Johnson has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.55 Units / 49% ROI)
- D’Andre Swift has hit the Receptions Under in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.65 Units / 26% ROI)
- Roschon Johnson has hit the Longest Rush Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 81% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Commanders players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Commanders Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Austin Ekeler has hit the Longest Rush Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 82% ROI)
- Brian Robinson has hit the Longest Rush Over in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 85% ROI)
- Austin Seibert has hit the Field Goals Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+4.15 Units / 63% ROI)
- Jayden Daniels has hit the Passing Yards Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.80 Units / 54% ROI)
- Noah Brown has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 5 of his last 6 games at home (+3.70 Units / 49% ROI)
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Commanders vs Bears
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Rome Odunze (CHI) | 33.5 -115 | 33.5 -115 |
| D.J. Moore (CHI) | 57.5 -115 | 57.5 -115 |
| Terry McLaurin (WAS) | 57.5 -115 | 57.5 -115 |
| Cole Kmet (CHI) | 35.5 -110 | 35.5 -120 |
| Keenan Allen (CHI) | 45.5 -115 | 45.5 -115 |
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Commanders vs Bears
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| D’Andre Swift (CHI) | 58.5 -115 | 58.5 -120 |
Bears Best Bets:
- The Chicago Bears have covered the Spread in 14 of their last 20 games (+9.75 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Chicago Bears have scored first in 8 of their last 9 games (+7.95 Units / 77% ROI)
- The Chicago Bears have covered the 1Q Spread in 9 of their last 10 away games (+7.95 Units / 59% ROI)
- The Chicago Bears have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 20 games (+7.25 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Chicago Bears have covered the 1H Spread in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.15 Units / 29% ROI)
Commanders Best Bets:
- The Washington Commanders have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+7.30 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Washington Commanders have covered the 3Q Spread in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.75 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Washington Commanders have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.60 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Washington Commanders have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.30 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Washington Commanders have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+3.75 Units / 35% ROI)
Bears Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Bears art 4-1 (+2.9 Units / 43.61% ROI).
- Bears are 4-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.05 Units / 23.3% ROI
- Bears are 3-3 when betting the Over for -0.3 Units / -4.55% ROI
- Bears are 3-3 when betting the Under for -0.3 Units / ROI
Commanders Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Commanders are 5-1 (+3.9 Units / 49.37% ROI).
- Commanders are 5-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.35 Units / 44.77% ROI
- Commanders are 5-2 when betting the Over for +2.8 Units / 36.36% ROI
- Commanders are 2-5 when betting the Under for -3.5 Units / -45.45% ROI
Chicago Bears: Keys to the Game vs. the Washington Commanders
The Bears are 9-2 (.818) when not throwing an interception since the 2023 season — 5th-best in NFL. The Commanders have intercepted 11 passes since the 2023 season — T-2nd-fewest in NFL.
The Bears are winless (0-7) when allowing 22 or more points since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .225.
The Bears were 1-5 (.167) when allowing 250 or more passing yards last season — T-3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .414.
The Bears were winless (0-6) when trailing at the end of the third quarter last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .148.
Washington Commanders: Keys to the Game vs. the Chicago Bears
The Commanders were winless (0-8) when making less than 5 explosive passes in a game last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .426.
The Commanders were 1-10 (.091) when intercepting no passes last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .348.
The Commanders were 2-12 (.143) when committing 1 or more turnovers last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .406.
The Commanders are 4-11 (.267) when throwing at least 1 interception since the 2023 season — T-8th-worst in NFL. The Bears have intercepted 29 passes since the 2023 season — 2nd-most in NFL.
Additional Matchup Notes for Chicago Bears vs. Washington Commanders
Commanders RBs have averaged 10.1 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL. The Bears have allowed 9.1 yards after catch per reception to RBs since the 2023 season — T-3rd-worst in NFL.
Commanders RBs have 44.0 receiving yards per game since the 2023 season — T-2nd-best in NFL. The Bears have averaged 49.9 receiving yards per game allowed to RBs since the 2023 season — worst in NFL.
The Commanders have thrown the ball just 44.8% of the time this season — 4th-lowest in NFL. The Bears have allowed just 5.7 yards per dropback this season — 3rd-best in NFL.
The Bears have scored 4.9 points per Red Zone drive this season — T-2nd-best in NFL. The Commanders have allowed 5.1 points per Red Zone drive this season — T-2nd-worst in NFL.
The Bears are 9-2 (.818) when not throwing an interception since the 2023 season — 5th-best in NFL. The Commanders have intercepted 11 passes since the 2023 season — T-2nd-fewest in NFL.
Chicago Bears Offense: Important Stats
The Bears averaged -0.76 epa per play against a light rush last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.04.
The Bears have a third down conversion rate of 100% on contested throws this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 30%.
The Bears have averaged 0.76 epa per play on contested throws this season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.11.
The Bears have run none of their plays in the red zone in the 1st quarter this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 12%.
Washington Commanders Offense: Important Stats
The Commanders have scored on 67% of their drives in the 4th quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 34%.
The Commanders have scored on 64% of their drives this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 38%.
The Commanders have scored on 61% of their drives in the 3rd quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 32%.
The Commanders have rushed for 14 TDs this season — most in NFL.
Chicago Bears Defense: Important Stats
The Bears defense have allowed -0.24 epa per play with a base rush this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 0.01.
The Bears defense allowed a third down conversion rate of 76% on 3rd and short last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 59%.
The Bears defense allowed 58.8 receiving yards per game (1,000/17) to RBs last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 32.4.
The Bears defense allowed -0.17 epa per play with a stacked front last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 0.01.
Washington Commanders Defense: Important Stats
The Commanders defense allowed scores on 51% of opponent drives in the 1st quarter last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 29%.
The Commanders defense has allowed scores on 45% of opponent drives in the 1st quarter since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 29%.
The Commanders defense has allowed a passer rating of 108.3 with a base rush (712 Pass Attempts) since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 89.6.
The Commanders defense has allowed scores on 45% of opponent drives in the 1st quarter since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 29%.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
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