- The Texans are -7 point favorites vs the Bears
- Total (Over/Under): 45.5 points
- Watch this game on NBC
The Chicago Bears (1-0-0) visit NRG Stadium to take on the Houston Texans (1-0-0) on Sep. 15. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:20pm EDT in Houston, TX.
The Texans are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -7 (-105).
The Bears vs. Texans Over/Under is 45.5 total points for the game.
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Bears vs. Texans Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Bears | +7 -115 | 45.5 -110 | +260 |
| Texans | -7 -105 | 45.5 -110 | -350 |
Bears vs. Texans Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Texans will win this game with 68.9% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Bears vs Texans Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Texans will cover the spread with 62.8% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Bears players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Bears Player Prop Bets Today
- Cole Kmet has hit the Receptions Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+6.35 Units / 33% ROI)
- Roschon Johnson has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.55 Units / 44% ROI)
- Roschon Johnson has hit the Receptions Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+5.50 Units / 85% ROI)
- Cairo Santos has hit the Field Goals Over in 11 of his last 18 games (+5.25 Units / 28% ROI)
- Roschon Johnson has hit the Longest Rush Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 81% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Texans players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Texans Player Prop Best Bets Today
- C.J. Stroud has hit the Interceptions Under in 15 of his last 18 games (+9.90 Units / 33% ROI)
- Stefon Diggs has hit the Longest Reception Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.45 Units / 51% ROI)
- Robert Woods has hit the Longest Reception Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.60 Units / 49% ROI)
- Stefon Diggs has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 77% ROI)
- Joe Mixon has hit the Longest Rush Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.60 Units / 34% ROI)
Bears Best Bets:
- The Chicago Bears have scored first in 10 of their last 13 games (+8.20 Units / 57% ROI)
- The Chicago Bears have covered the 1Q Spread in 9 of their last 11 away games (+6.65 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Chicago Bears have covered the Spread in 13 of their last 22 games (+5.45 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Chicago Bears have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 11 away games (+5.25 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Chicago Bears have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 9 away games (+4.90 Units / 47% ROI)
Texans Best Bets:
- The Houston Texans have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 20 games (+8.50 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Houston Texans have covered the 2H Spread in 8 of their last 10 games at home (+6.25 Units / 57% ROI)
- The Houston Texans have covered the 4Q Spread in 8 of their last 10 games at home (+5.85 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Houston Texans have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+5.60 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Houston Texans have hit the 2H Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+4.85 Units / 38% ROI)
Bears Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL preseason, the Bears went 1-0 (+1 Units / 90.91% ROI).
- Bears are 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 50% ROI
- Bears are 0-1 when betting the Over for -1.1 Units / -100% ROI
- Bears are 1-0 when betting the Under for +1 Units / ROI
Texans Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL preseason, the Texans went 0-1 (-1.1 Units / -100% ROI).
- Texans are 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 62.5% ROI
- Texans are 1-0 when betting the Over for +1 Units / 90.91% ROI
- Texans are 0-1 when betting the Under for -1.1 Units / -100% ROI
Chicago Bears: Keys to the Game vs. the Houston Texans
The Bears were winless (0-6) when trailing at the end of the third quarter last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .148.
The Bears were 2-7 (.222) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays last season — 4th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .422.
The Bears were 2-5 (.286) when within 7 points at the two minute warning last season — T-4th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.
The Bears were 3-6 (.333) when converting less than 55% of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season — T-8th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .465.
Houston Texans: Keys to the Game vs. the Chicago Bears
The Texans were 6-2 (.750) when allowing less than 3 sacks last season — 9th-best in NFL. The Bears averaged just 1.8 sacks per game over that time span — 2nd-worst in NFL.
The Texans were winless (0-5) vs top 10 defenses last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .476.
The Texans are winless (0-9) vs top 10 defenses since the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .469.
The Texans are 2-11 (.154) vs top 10 pass defenses since the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .496.
Additional Matchup Notes for Chicago Bears vs. Houston Texans
The Texans ran successful plays on just 25.4% of rush attempts against a stacked front last season — worst in NFL. The Bears allowed successful plays on just 34.0% of rush attempts with a stacked front last season — 3rd-best in NFL.
The Texans were 6-2 (.750) when allowing less than 3 sacks last season — 9th-best in NFL. The Bears averaged just 1.8 sacks per game over that time span — 2nd-worst in NFL.
The Texans allowed opponents to pressure their QB on 28.1% of pass attempts last week — 5th-worst in NFL. The Bears had pressured opposing QBs on 31.2% of passing plays last week — 2nd-best in NFL.
The Bears ran successful plays on just 32.3% of rush attempts against a stacked front last season — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Texans allowed successful plays on just 30.4% of rush attempts with a stacked front last season — best in NFL.
The Bears were successful on just 34.9% of plays they have run against a stacked front last season — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Texans allowed their opponents to be successful on just 32.8% of plays with a stacked front last season — best in NFL.
The Bears ran successful plays on just 31.0% of pass attempts last week — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Texans allowed successful plays on just 31.6% of pass attempts last week — 5th-best in NFL.
Chicago Bears Offense: Important Stats
The Bears averaged -0.76 epa per play against a light rush last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.04.
The Bears ran successful plays on 17% of plays against a light rush last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 38%.
The Bears averaged -0.17 epa per play in the 2nd half last season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.05.
The Bears ran successful plays on 20% of pass attempts against a light rush last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 40%.
Houston Texans Offense: Important Stats
The Texans ran successful plays on 25% of rush attempts against a stacked front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.
The Texans averaged -1.10 epa per play against a stacked front in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.01.
The Texans ran successful plays on 0% of rush attempts against a stacked front in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.
The Texans ran successful plays on 30% of plays against a stacked front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.
Chicago Bears Defense: Important Stats
The Bears defense allowed 58.8 receiving yards per game (1,000/17) to RBs last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 32.4.
The Bears defense averaged a sack every 21.6 pass attempts (647 Pass Attempts/30 Sacks) last season — worst attempts per sack rate in NFL; League Avg: 14.0.
The Bears defense has averaged a sack every 22.3 pass attempts (1,183 Pass Attempts/53 Sacks) since the 2022 season — worst attempts per sack rate in NFL; League Avg: 14.4.
The Bears defense has sacked opposing QBs on just 4% of pass attempts (53/1,183) since the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 7%.
Houston Texans Defense: Important Stats
The Texans defense allowed successful plays on 32% of rush attempts on motion plays last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.
The Texans defense allowed successful plays on 12% of plays with a light front in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.
The Texans defense allowed 23.6 yards per completion (212 yards/9 completions) in Week 1 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 10.4.
The Texans defense allowed a third down conversion rate of 9% on motion plays in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — best in NFL; League Avg: 40%.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
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