Bears vs Texans Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 2

min read

Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) looks to throw a pass during the first half of an NFL football game against the Tennessee Titans, Sunday, Dec. 31, 2023, in Houston. (AP Photo/Eric Christian Smith)

(AP Photo/Eric Christian Smith)

BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 12, 2024, 11:29 AM

The Texans are -7 point favorites vs the Bears
Total (Over/Under): 45.5 points
Watch this game on NBC

The Chicago Bears (1-0-0) visit NRG Stadium to take on the Houston Texans (1-0-0) on Sep. 15. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:20pm EDT in Houston, TX.

The Texans are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -7 (-105).

The Bears vs. Texans Over/Under is 45.5 total points for the game.

Bet now on Texans vs Bears & all NFL games with BetMGM

Bears vs. Texans Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Bears	+7 -115	45.5 -110	+260
Texans	-7 -105	45.5 -110	-350

Bears vs. Texans Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Texans will win this game with 68.9% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Bears vs Texans Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Texans will cover the spread with 62.8% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

Bet now on Texans vs Bears and all NFL games with BetMGM

$1500 First Bet Offer

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Bears players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Bears Player Prop Bets Today

Cole Kmet has hit the Receptions Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+6.35 Units / 33% ROI)

Roschon Johnson has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.55 Units / 44% ROI)

Roschon Johnson has hit the Receptions Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+5.50 Units / 85% ROI)

Cairo Santos has hit the Field Goals Over in 11 of his last 18 games (+5.25 Units / 28% ROI)

Roschon Johnson has hit the Longest Rush Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 81% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Texans players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Texans Player Prop Best Bets Today

C.J. Stroud has hit the Interceptions Under in 15 of his last 18 games (+9.90 Units / 33% ROI)

Stefon Diggs has hit the Longest Reception Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.45 Units / 51% ROI)

Robert Woods has hit the Longest Reception Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.60 Units / 49% ROI)

Stefon Diggs has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 77% ROI)

Joe Mixon has hit the Longest Rush Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.60 Units / 34% ROI)

Bears Best Bets:

The Chicago Bears have scored first in 10 of their last 13 games (+8.20 Units / 57% ROI)

The Chicago Bears have covered the 1Q Spread in 9 of their last 11 away games (+6.65 Units / 45% ROI)

The Chicago Bears have covered the Spread in 13 of their last 22 games (+5.45 Units / 22% ROI)

The Chicago Bears have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 11 away games (+5.25 Units / 47% ROI)

The Chicago Bears have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 9 away games (+4.90 Units / 47% ROI)

Texans Best Bets:

The Houston Texans have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 20 games (+8.50 Units / 35% ROI)

The Houston Texans have covered the 2H Spread in 8 of their last 10 games at home (+6.25 Units / 57% ROI)

The Houston Texans have covered the 4Q Spread in 8 of their last 10 games at home (+5.85 Units / 48% ROI)

The Houston Texans have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+5.60 Units / 45% ROI)

The Houston Texans have hit the 2H Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+4.85 Units / 38% ROI)

Bears Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL preseason, the Bears went 1-0 (+1 Units / 90.91% ROI).

Bears are 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 50% ROI
Bears are 0-1 when betting the Over for -1.1 Units / -100% ROI
Bears are 1-0 when betting the Under for +1 Units / ROI

Texans Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL preseason, the Texans went 0-1 (-1.1 Units / -100% ROI).

Texans are 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 62.5% ROI
Texans are 1-0 when betting the Over for +1 Units / 90.91% ROI
Texans are 0-1 when betting the Under for -1.1 Units / -100% ROI

Chicago Bears: Keys to the Game vs. the Houston Texans

The Bears were winless (0-6) when trailing at the end of the third quarter last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .148.

The Bears were 2-7 (.222) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays last season — 4th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .422.

The Bears were 2-5 (.286) when within 7 points at the two minute warning last season — T-4th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.

The Bears were 3-6 (.333) when converting less than 55% of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season — T-8th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .465.

Houston Texans: Keys to the Game vs. the Chicago Bears

The Texans were 6-2 (.750) when allowing less than 3 sacks last season — 9th-best in NFL. The Bears averaged just 1.8 sacks per game over that time span — 2nd-worst in NFL.

The Texans were winless (0-5) vs top 10 defenses last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .476.

The Texans are winless (0-9) vs top 10 defenses since the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .469.

The Texans are 2-11 (.154) vs top 10 pass defenses since the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .496.

Additional Matchup Notes for Chicago Bears vs. Houston Texans

The Texans ran successful plays on just 25.4% of rush attempts against a stacked front last season — worst in NFL. The Bears allowed successful plays on just 34.0% of rush attempts with a stacked front last season — 3rd-best in NFL.

The Texans were 6-2 (.750) when allowing less than 3 sacks last season — 9th-best in NFL. The Bears averaged just 1.8 sacks per game over that time span — 2nd-worst in NFL.

The Texans allowed opponents to pressure their QB on 28.1% of pass attempts last week — 5th-worst in NFL. The Bears had pressured opposing QBs on 31.2% of passing plays last week — 2nd-best in NFL.

The Bears ran successful plays on just 32.3% of rush attempts against a stacked front last season — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Texans allowed successful plays on just 30.4% of rush attempts with a stacked front last season — best in NFL.

The Bears were successful on just 34.9% of plays they have run against a stacked front last season — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Texans allowed their opponents to be successful on just 32.8% of plays with a stacked front last season — best in NFL.

The Bears ran successful plays on just 31.0% of pass attempts last week — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Texans allowed successful plays on just 31.6% of pass attempts last week — 5th-best in NFL.

Chicago Bears Offense: Important Stats

The Bears averaged -0.76 epa per play against a light rush last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.04.

The Bears ran successful plays on 17% of plays against a light rush last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 38%.

The Bears averaged -0.17 epa per play in the 2nd half last season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.05.

The Bears ran successful plays on 20% of pass attempts against a light rush last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 40%.

Houston Texans Offense: Important Stats

The Texans ran successful plays on 25% of rush attempts against a stacked front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Texans averaged -1.10 epa per play against a stacked front in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.01.

The Texans ran successful plays on 0% of rush attempts against a stacked front in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Texans ran successful plays on 30% of plays against a stacked front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

Chicago Bears Defense: Important Stats

The Bears defense allowed 58.8 receiving yards per game (1,000/17) to RBs last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 32.4.

The Bears defense averaged a sack every 21.6 pass attempts (647 Pass Attempts/30 Sacks) last season — worst attempts per sack rate in NFL; League Avg: 14.0.

The Bears defense has averaged a sack every 22.3 pass attempts (1,183 Pass Attempts/53 Sacks) since the 2022 season — worst attempts per sack rate in NFL; League Avg: 14.4.

The Bears defense has sacked opposing QBs on just 4% of pass attempts (53/1,183) since the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 7%.

Houston Texans Defense: Important Stats

The Texans defense allowed successful plays on 32% of rush attempts on motion plays last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Texans defense allowed successful plays on 12% of plays with a light front in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Texans defense allowed 23.6 yards per completion (212 yards/9 completions) in Week 1 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 10.4.

The Texans defense allowed a third down conversion rate of 9% on motion plays in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — best in NFL; League Avg: 40%.

Looking to place a bet on this game with a First Bet Offer up to $1,500? Bet now on Texans vs Bears and all NFL games with BetMGM

More NFL Betting Predictions:

More NFL Odds at BetMGM

Take your football entertainment to the next level with NFL betting at the online sportsbook.

From futures like Chiefs AFC West odds, Lions odds to win the Super Bowl, or Titans playoff odds, to weekly odds like spreads, moneylines, and over/under totals, there’s something for everyone.

And with the best sportsbook promotions, you could land a welcome offer, sports betting Odds Boost, or a Parlay Boost! You can also check out NFL picks and predictions and updated Super Bowl predictions throughout the year.

Log in to your BetMGM account today — or sign up for a new account via the online sportsbook or BetMGM iOS app or BetMGM Android app — to start betting!

About the Author