- The Bears are a 3.5-point home underdog against the Vikings.
- The Bears have lost 11 straight games against NFC opponents on a winning streak.
- My Bears vs. Vikings prediction focuses on the pregame over/under.
For the second straight week, the Bears host a divisional opponent with a meeting against the Vikings at Soldier Field.
All was set up for Chicago to capture a shock win over the Packers last week. However, a blocked field goal try on the final play resigned Chicago to a 20-19 defeat.
The Vikings cruised to a third straight win in Week 11 as six-point favorites against the Titans. That moved Minnesota to 8-2 on the season, with the Vikings occupying the first wild card spot.
Bet on Bears vs. Vikings and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.
NFL Week 12 Odds: Bears vs. Vikings
Bears vs. Vikings Prediction
Based on the strength of both defenses and Minnesota’s offensive regression, my Bears vs. Vikings prediction is Under 39.5 Points (-110).
It seems that teams are catching onto Sam Darnold’s tendencies and adjusting their defense.
In Weeks 1-4, the Vikings ranked eighth in offensive EPA per play and fifth in offensive success rate. Since Week 5, they’ve fallen to 19th and 18th, respectively.
That’s led Minnesota to play a lot of unders this season, with seven of Minnesota’s first 10 finishing under the total.
Sunday’s matchup also presents a problem in that the strength of Minnesota’s offense faces the strength of Chicago’s defense.
Since Week 5, Minnesota sits 13th in dropback success rate. Over the same timeframe, Chicago ranks 10th in the corresponding defensive category.
This also rates out as a good sell-high spot on Chicago’s offense.
Although they passed the eye test against Green Bay, the Bears get an outstanding Minnesota defense on Sunday.
For the season, Minnesota ranks first in defensive EPA per play and success rate.
Brian Flores’ unit also leads the league in defensive DVOA, having faced the seventh-hardest set of offensive opponents.
Chicago really only runs the ball well, and Minnesota’s rush defense is improving rapidly.
Minnesota posted three of their four best rush defensive grades in the last four games and leads the league in defensive rush success rate.
History also likes this game under the total. Since 2003, divisional NFC games with a total between 39 and 42 featuring a home dog are 67% to the under.
Over the previous three seasons, those games are 9-1-1 to the under.
Betting Bears vs. Vikings: NFL Public Betting
| Bets% (Spread) | Money% (Spread) | Bets% (ML) | Money% (ML) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vikings | 64% | 52% | 62% | 55% |
| Bears | 36% | 48% | 38% | 45% |
