Bengals vs Chiefs Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 2

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(AP Photo/John Locher)

BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 12, 2024, 11:29 AM

The Chiefs are -6 point favorites vs the Bengals
Total (Over/Under): 47.5 points
Watch this game on CBS

The Cincinnati Bengals (0-1-0) visit GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium to take on the Kansas City Chiefs (1-0-0) on Sep. 15. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25pm EDT in Kansas City, MO.

The Chiefs are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -6 (-110).

The Bengals vs. Chiefs Over/Under is 47.5 total points for the game.

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Bengals vs. Chiefs Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Bengals	+6 -110	47.5 -110	+200
Chiefs	-6 -110	47.5 -110	-250

Bengals vs. Chiefs Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Chiefs will win this game with 68.3% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Bengals vs Chiefs Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Bengals will cover the spread with 53.9% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Bengals players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Bengals Player Prop Bets Today

Mike Gesicki has hit the Longest Reception Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.75 Units / 62% ROI)

Zack Moss has hit the Longest Rush Under in his last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 78% ROI)

Zack Moss has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 77% ROI)

Trenton Irwin has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.85 Units / 61% ROI)

Jake Browning has hit the TD Passes Over in 5 of his last 7 games (+4.25 Units / 45% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Chiefs players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Chiefs Player Prop Best Bets Today

Rashee Rice has hit the Receptions Over in 14 of his last 19 games (+8.55 Units / 35% ROI)

Skyy Moore has hit the Receptions Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.25 Units / 58% ROI)

Isiah Pacheco has hit the Carries Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.75 Units / 35% ROI)

JuJu Smith-Schuster has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.30 Units / 42% ROI)

Rashee Rice has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 13 of his last 19 games (+6.05 Units / 28% ROI)

Bengals Best Bets:

The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 7 away games (+4.75 Units / 61% ROI)

The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 7 of their last 9 away games (+4.70 Units / 46% ROI)

The Cincinnati Bengals have scored first in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.90 Units / 22% ROI)

The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the 2H Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 away games (+3.45 Units / 51% ROI)

The Cincinnati Bengals have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 18 games (+2.35 Units / 11% ROI)

Chiefs Best Bets:

The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 13 of their last 22 games (+4.25 Units / 17% ROI)

The Kansas City Chiefs have covered the 3Q Spread in their last 3 games (+3.15 Units / 82% ROI)

The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 2 of their last 3 games (+1.35 Units / 41% ROI)

The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the Team Total Over in 2 of their last 3 games (+1.10 Units / 33% ROI)

The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 1 of their last 3 games (+1.00 Units / 30% ROI)

Bengals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL preseason, the Bengals went 0-1 (-1.1 Units / -100% ROI).

Bengals are 0-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.8 Units / -100% ROI
Bengals are 0-1 when betting the Over for -1.1 Units / -100% ROI
Bengals are 1-0 when betting the Under for +1 Units / ROI

Chiefs Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL preseason, the Chiefs went 1-0 (+1 Units / 95.24% ROI).

Chiefs are 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 68.97% ROI
Chiefs are 1-0 when betting the Over for +1 Units / 90.91% ROI
Chiefs are 0-1 when betting the Under for -1.1 Units / -100% ROI

Cincinnati Bengals: Keys to the Game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs

The Bengals were 6-2 (.750) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times last season — T-6th-best in NFL; League Avg: .586.

The Bengals were 6-3 (.667) at home last season — T-8th-best in NFL; League Avg: .558.

The Bengals were 3-4 (.429) vs top 10 pass defenses last season — 10th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .488.

The Bengals were 2-4 (.333) vs top 10 defenses last season — T-8th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .476.

Kansas City Chiefs: Keys to the Game vs. the Cincinnati Bengals

The Chiefs were 7-1 (.875) when passing for 250 or more yards last season — 4th-best in NFL. The Bengals allowed 248.2 passing yards per game last season — 5th-worst in NFL.

The Chiefs are 18-3 (.857) when passing for 250 or more yards since the 2022 season — best in NFL. The Bengals have allowed 235.4 passing yards per game since the 2022 season — 5th-worst in NFL.

The Chiefs were 8-4 (.667) when rushing less than 25 times last season — best in NFL; League Avg: .281.

The Chiefs are 5-3 (.625) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .263.

Additional Matchup Notes for Cincinnati Bengals vs. Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs ran successful plays on 56.9% of pass attempts on play action passes last season — 4th-best in NFL. The Bengals allowed successful plays on 57.0% of pass attempts on play action passes last season — 2nd-worst in NFL.

The Chiefs were successful on 52.1% of plays they have run against a stacked front last season — 2nd-best in NFL. The Bengals allowed their opponents to be successful on 50.5% of plays with a stacked front last season — 3rd-worst in NFL.

Chiefs TEs had 77.4 receiving yards per game last season — 3rd-best in NFL. The Bengals allowed an average of 63.5 receiving yards per game to TEs last season — 3rd-worst in NFL.

The Bengals allowed opponents to pressure their QB on 10.3% of pass attempts last week — 5th-best in NFL. The Chiefs had pressured opposing QBs on just 4.9% of passing plays last week — 2nd-worst in NFL.

The Bengals threw the ball 10 yards or less 74.1% of pass attempts last season — 3rd-highest in NFL. The Chiefs allowed just 5.6 yards per dropback on pass attempts between 1 and 10 yards last season — T-5th-best in NFL.

Bengals WRs have 27 receiving touchdowns in the Red Zone since the 2022 season — 4th-most in NFL. The Chiefs have allowed 44 receiving touchdowns when defending in the red zone since the 2022 season — 3rd-most in NFL.

Cincinnati Bengals Offense: Important Stats

The Bengals averaged -0.85 epa per play against tight coverage last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.52.

The Bengals threw the ball 36% of the time (10 Pass Attempts/28 plays) in close and late situations last season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 55%.

The Bengals ran successful plays on 78% of rush attempts in the 2nd half in Week 1 — best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

The Bengals committed 5 turnovers in the red zone last season — T-2nd-most in NFL.

Kansas City Chiefs Offense: Important Stats

The Chiefs averaged 0.27 epa per play against a stacked front last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 0.01.

The Chiefs ran successful plays on 67% of plays against a heavy rush last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

The Chiefs have a third down conversion rate of 32% on third and 10+ yards to go since the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 18%.

The Chiefs have averaged 0.20 epa per play against a stacked front since the 2022 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 0.02.

Cincinnati Bengals Defense: Important Stats

The Bengals defense allowed 8.1 yards from scrimmage per touch (6,619 yards / 818 touches) last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 7.2.

The Bengals defense allowed 8 TDs on first drive of the game last season — most in NFL.

The Bengals defense allowed a passer rating of just 24.8 when they pressured the QB (91 Pass Attempts) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 53.6.

The Bengals defense allowed successful plays on 56% of rush attempts in the 1st quarter last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

Kansas City Chiefs Defense: Important Stats

The Chiefs defense allowed just 3.6 yards per dropback (256 yards/72 attempts) on 3rd and long last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 6.2.

The Chiefs defense allowed a third down conversion rate of 3% on third and 10+ yards to go last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

The Chiefs defense allowed successful plays on 40% of pass attempts with a base front last season — 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

The Chiefs defense allowed 4 TDs that were 20+ yards last season — T-fewest in NFL.

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