Bengals vs. Patriots Prediction, Odds, Pick: NFL Week 1

To begin the post-Bill Belichick era, the Patriots travel to Cincinnati for a matchup with the Bengals. 

Little is expected this year from New England, who hired Jerod Mayo and drafted quarterback Drake Maye during the offseason. Accordingly, Patriots over/under wins is set at 4.5. 

Comparatively, hopes are high for Cincinnati. They won nine games last year, but finished last in the AFC North. This season, only four teams have a shorter price in the Super Bowl odds. 

Let’s take a look at the NFL betting lines and my prediction for this Week 1 contest. 

Bengals vs. Patriots Odds, Week 1

• Cincinnati Bengals Moneyline: -450
• New England Patriots Moneyline: +350
• Game Spread: Bengals -9.5
• Game Over/Under: 40.5 Points

Bengals vs. Patriots Prediction, Week 1

My prediction for Bengals vs. Patriots is the game total Under 40.5 Points (-110). However, given some betting percentages, it’s strictly a lean. 

First, the good news. 

This game matches a historically profitable system. Since 2005-06, outdoor Week 1 games with a total between 41 and 48 are 84-48 to the under. 

When the visiting team failed to make the postseason, it jumps to 56-19 to the under, including 38-15 when both teams missed the playoffs. 

But the worry here is that bettors are loading up on the under…and it hasn’t moved at all. 

As of July 10, 89% of bets placed and 95% of dollars wagered are on under 42.5 points. However, the number has held firm at the opening number. 

That is somewhat worrisome to me, hence why this bet is just a lean. 

But if you dissect the matchup further, a low-event game feels likely. 

I question if Cincinnati can limit New England’s ground game following the departure of D.J. Reader. 

Per sharpfootballanalysis.com, Cincinnati went from best in rushing yards per attempt with Reader to dead last without him on the field. 

That said, they’ve made quality additions to the secondary that could allow them to sell out against the run. 

While I question the upside of New England’s defense without Belichick, they still possess an above-average secondary. 

Last season, New England ranked 15th or better in both dropback EPA per play and dropback success rate. 

With Joe Burrow coming off an injury, a less-than-efficient Bengals offense doesn’t feel too farfetched in Week 1. 

As a result, it’s the under or nothing for me in this game.