- The Lions are -2.5 point favorites vs the Bills
- Total (Over/Under): 54.5 points
- Watch this game on CBS
The Buffalo Bills (10-3-0) visit Ford Field to take on the Detroit Lions (12-1-0) on Dec. 15. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25pm EST in Detroit, MI.
The Lions are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-110).
The Bills vs. Lions Over/Under is 54.5 total points for the game.
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Bills vs. Lions Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Bills | +2.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | +120 |
| Lions | -2.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -145 |
Bills vs. Lions Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Bills will win this game with 51.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Bills vs Lions Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Bills will cover the spread with 56.8% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Bills players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Bills Player Prop Bets Today
- Khalil Shakir has hit the Receptions Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+6.25 Units / 30% ROI)
- James Cook has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 away games (+5.85 Units / 63% ROI)
- James Cook has hit the Longest Reception Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 79% ROI)
- Tyler Bass has hit the Field Goals Under in 7 of his last 9 away games (+4.90 Units / 45% ROI)
- Curtis Samuel has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 10 of his last 15 games (+4.05 Units / 22% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Lions players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Lions Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Jared Goff has hit the Passing Yards Over in 14 of his last 19 games (+8.05 Units / 37% ROI)
- David Montgomery has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+7.45 Units / 37% ROI)
- David Montgomery has hit the Receptions Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+7.30 Units / 36% ROI)
- Tim Patrick has hit the Receptions Over in his last 5 games (+5.35 Units / 79% ROI)
- Jameson Williams has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.10 Units / 27% ROI)
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Lions vs Bills
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) | 69.5 -120 | 69.5 -110 |
| David Montgomery (DET) | 12.5 -115 | 12.5 -115 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) | 21.5 -115 | 21.5 -115 |
| Sam LaPorta (DET) | 40.5 -110 | 40.5 -120 |
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Lions vs Bills
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| James Cook (BUF) | 49.5 -115 | 49.5 -115 |
| David Montgomery (DET) | 56.5 -120 | 56.5 -115 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) | 63.5 -115 | 63.5 -115 |
| Josh Allen (BUF) | 33.5 -115 | 33.5 -115 |
Bills Best Bets:
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 16 of their last 19 games (+12.60 Units / 57% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 22 games (+8.60 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the Team Total Over in 15 of their last 21 games (+8.45 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 14 of their last 22 games (+5.65 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 22 games (+5.10 Units / 21% ROI)
Lions Best Bets:
- The Detroit Lions have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 21 games (+16.30 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Detroit Lions have covered the Spread in 17 of their last 21 games (+13.70 Units / 59% ROI)
- The Detroit Lions have covered the 1H Spread in 17 of their last 21 games (+12.35 Units / 51% ROI)
- The Detroit Lions have covered the 2Q Spread in 15 of their last 19 games (+10.35 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Detroit Lions have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 15 of their last 19 games (+10.15 Units / 43% ROI)
Bills Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Bills art 8-5 (+2.6 Units / 18.18% ROI).
- Bills are 10-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.35 Units / 23.61% ROI
- Bills are 8-5 when betting the Over for +2.4 Units / 16.67% ROI
- Bills are 5-8 when betting the Under for -3.8 Units / ROI
Lions Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Lions are 9-3 (+5.7 Units / 39.86% ROI).
- Lions are 12-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.45 Units / 19.88% ROI
- Lions are 6-6 when betting the Over for -0.65 Units / -4.53% ROI
- Lions are 6-6 when betting the Under for -0.6 Units / -4.21% ROI
Buffalo Bills: Keys to the Game vs. the Detroit Lions
The Bills were winless (0-4) when rushing for less than 100 yards last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .336.
The Bills are undefeated (7-0) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .556.
The Bills were 3-1 (.750) when the opposing team commits 60 yards or more in penalties. last season — T-3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: .513.
The Bills are 2-1 (.667) vs bottom 10 pass defenses this season — T-8th-best in NFL; League Avg: .454.
Detroit Lions: Keys to the Game vs. the Buffalo Bills
The Lions are undefeated (3-0) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .254.
The Lions were undefeated (5-0) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .574.
The Lions are undefeated (7-0) when sacking the QB less than 3 times this season — best in NFL; League Avg: .373.
The Lions are 14-3 (.824) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .368.
Additional Matchup Notes for Buffalo Bills vs. Detroit Lions
The Lions scored on 60% of their drives last week — T-5th-best in NFL. The Bills defense allowed scores on 66.7% of opponent drives last week — T-2nd-worst in NFL.
The Lions ran successful plays on 61.0% of pass attempts last week — 3rd-best in NFL. The Bills allowed successful plays on 60.0% of pass attempts last week — 5th-worst in NFL.
The Lions ran 57.3% offensive plays on their opponent’s side of the field last week — 3rd-best in NFL. The Bills allowed their opponents to run56.9% of plays in their territory last week — 4th-worst in NFL.
The Bills have averaged 0.18 epa per play against a light front since the 2023 season — T-best in NFL. The Lions have allowed 0.11 epa per play with a light front since the 2023 season — worst in NFL.
The Bills have been successful on 47.3% of plays they have run against a light front since the 2023 season — 3rd-best in NFL. The Lions have allowed their opponents to be successful on 45.2% of plays with a light front since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst in NFL.
The Bills threw the ball 68.5% of the time last week — 2nd-highest in NFL. The Lions allowed 10.0 yards per dropback last week — 4th-worst in NFL.
Buffalo Bills Offense: Important Stats
The Bills ran successful plays on 51% of plays in the 4th quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 40%.
The Bills ran successful plays on 51% of rush attempts last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.
The Bills have averaged 0.28 epa per play on motion plays this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 0.01.
The Bills have averaged 0.34 epa per play against a light front this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 0.00.
Detroit Lions Offense: Important Stats
The Lions had a third down conversion rate of 44% against tight coverage last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 19%.
The Lions have run successful plays on 60% of plays against a base rush since Week 11 — best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.
The Lions converted first downs on 103 of 320 plays (32%) in the 4th quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 26%.
The Lions went for it on fourth down 35% of the time last season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 20%.
Buffalo Bills Defense: Important Stats
The Bills defense allowed successful plays on 11% of plays with a light rush last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 39%.
The Bills defense allowed -0.67 epa per play with a light rush last season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.04.
The Bills defense has allowed a passer rating of just 30.1 with a light rush (22 Pass Attempts) since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 85.7.
The Bills defense allowed successful plays on 11% of pass attempts with a light rush last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 40%.
Detroit Lions Defense: Important Stats
60% of the plays ran against the Lions were in the red zone in the 4th quarter in Week 14 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 17%.
Offenses facing the Lions targeted WRs 70% of the time (319 Pass Attempts/455 plays) this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 57%.
The Lions defense has allowed a passer rating of just 76.5 (455 Pass Attempts) this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 92.1.
Offenses facing the Lions targeted RBs 12% of the time (126 Pass Attempts/1,043 plays) since the 2023 season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 17%.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
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