- The Bills are -2.5 point favorites vs the Patriots
- Total (Over/Under): 38 points
- Watch this game on CBS
The Buffalo Bills (13-3-0) visit Gillette Stadium to take on the New England Patriots (3-13-0) on Jan. 5. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Foxborough, MA.
The Bills are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-105).
The Bills vs. Patriots Over/Under is 38 total points for the game.
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Bills vs. Patriots Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Bills | -2.5 -105 | 38 -105 | -145 |
| Patriots | +2.5 -115 | 38 -115 | +120 |
Bills vs. Patriots Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Bills will win this game with 57.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Bills vs Patriots Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Bills will cover the spread with 55.0% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Bills players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Bills Player Prop Bets Today
- Josh Allen has hit the Interceptions Under in 13 of his last 19 games (+6.20 Units / 28% ROI)
- Josh Allen has hit the TD Passes Over in 12 of his last 19 games (+5.05 Units / 23% ROI)
- Ray Davis has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.90 Units / 62% ROI)
- Amari Cooper has hit the Receptions Under in 6 of his last 7 away games (+4.90 Units / 55% ROI)
- Josh Allen has hit the Completions Over in 12 of his last 19 games (+4.00 Units / 19% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Patriots players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Patriots Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Austin Hooper has hit the Receptions Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+8.20 Units / 44% ROI)
- Ja’Lynn Polk has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.85 Units / 67% ROI)
- Austin Hooper has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.25 Units / 32% ROI)
- Drake Maye has hit the Interceptions Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.20 Units / 46% ROI)
- Hunter Henry has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+4.85 Units / 60% ROI)
Bills Best Bets:
- The Buffalo Bills have covered the 2H Spread in 13 of their last 17 games (+8.89 Units / 46% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 22 games (+8.80 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the Team Total Over in 15 of their last 21 games (+8.50 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 14 of their last 19 games (+8.35 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 2H Moneyline in 11 of their last 16 games (+7.90 Units / 27% ROI)
Patriots Best Bets:
- The New England Patriots have covered the 4Q Spread in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.60 Units / 23% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 5 of their last 8 games at home (+2.05 Units / 22% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 10 games at home (+1.60 Units / 15% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 9 of their last 17 games (+1.30 Units / 7% ROI)
- The New England Patriots have hit the Team Total Over in 5 of their last 9 games at home (+0.75 Units / 8% ROI)
Bills Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Bills art 10-6 (+3.5 Units / 19.89% ROI).
- Bills are 13-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.55 Units / 22.21% ROI
- Bills are 10-6 when betting the Over for +3.3 Units / 18.64% ROI
- Bills are 6-10 when betting the Under for -5 Units / ROI
Patriots Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Patriots are 6-9 (-3.8 Units / -21.65% ROI).
- Patriots are 3-13 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.8 Units / -30% ROI
- Patriots are 10-6 when betting the Over for +3.4 Units / 19.32% ROI
- Patriots are 6-10 when betting the Under for -5 Units / -28.41% ROI
Buffalo Bills: Keys to the Game vs. the New England Patriots
The Bills are 17-3 (.850) when possessing the ball longer than their opponent since the 2023 season — 4th-best in NFL. The Patriots has allowed an average time of possession of 31 min and 16 s since the 2023 season — 4th-highest in NFL.
The Bills are 13-2 (.867) when allowing less than 3 sacks this season — 7th-best in NFL. The Patriots have averaged just 1.8 sacks per game over that time span — worst in NFL.
The Bills were 3-1 (.750) when not forcing a turnover last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .265.
The Bills are undefeated (6-0) when allowing less than 30% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2023 season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .679.
New England Patriots: Keys to the Game vs. the Buffalo Bills
The Patriots were winless (0-5) when converting less than 55% of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .464.
The Patriots are 2-13 (.133) at home since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .541.
The Patriots were winless (0-4) when allowing 7 or more explosive plays last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .375.
The Patriots were winless (0-6) when allowing 5 or more explosive passes last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .427.
Additional Matchup Notes for Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots
The Patriots have averaged just 0.28 epa per play against open coverage since the 2023 season — T-5th-worst in NFL. The Bills have allowed just 0.28 epa per play with open coverage since the 2023 season — best in NFL.
The Patriots have averaged just -0.27 epa per play against a light front since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst in NFL. The Bills have allowed just -0.18 epa per play with a light front since the 2023 season — best in NFL.
The Patriots have run successful plays on just 34.5% of pass attempts against a light rush since the 2023 season — 4th-worst in NFL. The Bills have allowed successful plays on just 22.7% of pass attempts with a light rush since the 2023 season — best in NFL.
The Bills have run 53.0% offensive plays on their opponent’s side of the field this season — 4th-best in NFL. The Patriots have allowed their opponents to run 50.9% of plays in their territory this season — 4th-worst in NFL.
The Bills have scored on 50.6% of their drives this season — 2nd-best in NFL. The Patriots defense has allowed scores on 42.7% of opponent drives this season — 5th-worst in NFL.
The Bills have run 51.3% offensive plays on their opponent’s side of the field since the 2023 season — 4th-best in NFL. The Patriots have allowed their opponents to run 48.5% of plays in their territory since the 2023 season — 4th-worst in NFL.
Buffalo Bills Offense: Important Stats
The Bills ran successful plays on 51% of plays in the 4th quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 40%.
The Bills went three and out on 12% of their drives last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 22%.
The Bills have averaged 7.2 yards per play on motion plays this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 5.8.
The Bills went three and out on 10% of their drives in the 2nd half last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 20%.
New England Patriots Offense: Important Stats
The Patriots averaged -0.45 epa per play against a light front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.05.
The Patriots ran successful plays on 10% of plays on motion plays in Week 17 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 47%.
The Patriots ran successful plays on 24% of plays against a light front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 40%.
The Patriots started 24 drives inside their own 10 yard line last season — most in NFL.
Buffalo Bills Defense: Important Stats
The Bills defense allowed successful plays on 11% of plays with a light rush last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 39%.
The Bills defense allowed successful plays on 11% of pass attempts with a light rush last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 40%.
The Bills defense has allowed successful plays on 25% of rush attempts with a light front this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.
The Bills defense have allowed -0.18 epa per play with a light front since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.03.
New England Patriots Defense: Important Stats
The Patriots defense has averaged a turnover percentage of just 1% (24 / 2,092) since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 2%.
The Patriots defense allowed successful plays on 33% of rush attempts in the 2nd half last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 41%.
The Patriots defense have allowed just 2.6 yards per play with a stacked front since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 4.1.
The Patriots defense have allowed 0.25 epa per play against play action passes this season — T-2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.08.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
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