Bills vs Ravens Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 4

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 30, 2022, 11:08 AM
  • The Bills (2-1) are -3 point favorites vs the Ravens (2-1)
  • Total (Over/Under): 51 points
  • Watch the game on CBS

The Buffalo Bills (2-1) visit M&T Bank Stadium to take on the Baltimore Ravens (2-1) on Oct. 2. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in Baltimore.

The Bills are betting favorites in Week 4, with the spread sitting at -3 (-110).

The Bills vs. Ravens Over/Under is 51 total points for the game.

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Bills vs. Ravens Odds, Spread, Over/Under Week 4

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Bills-3 -11051 -110-160
Ravens +3 -11051 -110+135

Bills vs. Ravens Prediction for Week 4

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Bills will win this Week 4 game with 65.8% confidence.

Bills vs Ravens Spread Prediction for Week 4

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Bills will cover the spread this Week 4 with 56.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Bills and Ravens, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Best Bills Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Bills players for Week 4, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Josh Allen has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 13 of his last 19 games (+6.15 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Josh Allen has hit the Passing Yards Over in 8 of his last 10 away games (+5.55 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Jamison Crowder has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 6 of his last 7 away games (+4.65 Units / 50% ROI)
  • Josh Allen has hit the TD Passes Over in 7 of his last 10 away games (+4.65 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Gabriel Davis has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+4.40 Units / 30% ROI)

Best Ravens Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Ravens players for Week 4, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Mark Andrews has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+8.70 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Mark Andrews has hit the Receptions Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+8.20 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Lamar Jackson has hit the Pass Attempts Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.70 Units / 50% ROI)
  • Mike Davis has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.55 Units / 51% ROI)
  • Kenyan Drake has hit the Receptions Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+4.45 Units / 60% ROI)

Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Ravens vs Bills

Player Name Over Under
Devin Duvernay 28.5 -115 28.5 -110
Mark Andrews 61.5 -115 61.5 -110
Rashod Bateman 49.5 -115 49.5 -115
Dawson Knox 29.5 -115 29.5 -115
Devin Singletary 13.5 -115 13.5 -110

Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Ravens vs Bills

Player Name Over Under
J.K. Dobbins 37.5 -115 37.5 -110
Lamar Jackson 54.5 -115 54.5 -110
Devin Singletary 33.5 -115 33.5 -115
Josh Allen 44.5 -115 44.5 -115
  • The Buffalo Bills have scored first in their last 9 games (+9.05 Units / 56% ROI)
  • The Buffalo Bills have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 13 games (+7.20 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Buffalo Bills have hit the 2H Moneyline in 9 of their last 12 games (+6.70 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Buffalo Bills have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 19 games (+6.70 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Buffalo Bills have covered the 2H Spread in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.50 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Ravens have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 14 of their last 17 games (+11.85 Units / 61% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Ravens have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 14 games (+8.75 Units / 57% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Ravens have scored first in 10 of their last 13 games (+7.10 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Ravens have hit the 1H Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 games (+6.05 Units / 41% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Ravens have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+6.00 Units / 60% ROI)

Bills Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Bills have gone 2-1 (+0.9 Units / 27.69% ROI).

  • Bills are 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
  • Bills are 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
  • Bills are 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / ROI

Ravens Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Ravens have gone 2-1 (+0.95 Units / 28.79% ROI).

  • Ravens are 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.35 Units / 5.88% ROI
  • Ravens are 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
  • Ravens are 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI

Buffalo Bills: Keys to the Game vs. the Baltimore Ravens

The Bills are 9-5 (.643) when passing for 250 or more yards since the 2021 season — tied for eighth-best in NFL. The Ravens have allowed 289.8 passing yards per game since the 2021 season — worst in NFL.

The Bills are winless (0-5) when within 7 points at the two minute warning since the 2021 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .492.

The Bills are winless (0-3) whe trailing at the end of the frist half since the 2021 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .207.

The Bills are 11-3 (.786) when allowing less than 3 explosive runs since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .540.

Baltimore Ravens: Keys to the Game vs. the Buffalo Bills

The Ravens are 4-1 (.800) when giving 3 points or less since the 2020 season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .524.

The Ravens are 4-9 (.308) when not forcing a fumble since the 2021 season — tied for 7th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .419.

The Ravens are 3-8 (.273) since Week 7 of 2021 — tied for 4th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .497.

The Ravens are 2-6 (.250) since Week 11 — tied for 4th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.

Additional Matchup Notes for Buffalo Bills vs. Baltimore Ravens

Ravens RBs have averaged just 54.0 rushing yards per game this season — third-worst in NFL. The Bills have allowed an average of just 57.7 rushing yards per game this season — second-best in NFL.

Ravens WRs gained 84 yards on 4 receptions (21.0 YPR) last week — third-best in NFL. The Bills allowed 18.9 Yards Per Reception to WRs in Week 3 — fifth-worst in NFL.

Ravens WRs have just 109.0 receiving yards per game since Week 18 of the 2021 Season — third-worst in NFL. The Bills have averaged just 128.0 receiving yards per game allowed to WRs since Week 18 of the 2021 Season — fifth-best in NFL.

The Bills have gone three and out on 9.7% of their drives this season — fourth-best in NFL. Ravens have forced three and outs on 5.7% of opponent drives this season — third-worst in NFL.

The Bills went three and out on 0% of their drives last week — tied for best in NFL. Ravens forced three and outs on 0% of opponent drives in Week 3 — tied for worst in NFL.

The Bills have thrown for 1,014 passing yards in 3 games (338.0 YPG) this season — best in NFL. The Ravens have allowed 352.7 passing yards per game this season — worst in NFL.

Buffalo Bills Offense: Important Stats for Week 4

The Bills have converted first downs on 25 of 41 plays (61%) on 3rd down this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 38%.

The Bills have run 28% of their plays in the red zone in the 4th quarter since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

The Bills have a third down conversion rate of 61% this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 39%.

The Bills ran 28% of their plays in the red zone in the 4th quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

Baltimore Ravens Offense: Important Stats for Week 4

The Ravens have targeted TEs 50% of the time (44 Pass Attempts/88 plays) this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 19%.

The Ravens targeted WRs 24% of the time (7 Pass Attempts/29 plays) in Week 3 — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 58%.

The Ravens ran successful plays on 58% of rush attempts in the 4th quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Ravens have targeted WRs 39% of the time (34 Pass Attempts/88 plays) this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 58%.

Buffalo Bills Defense: Important Stats for Week 4

The Bills defense allowed a passer rating of just 65.4 (531 Pass Attempts) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 90.8.

The Bills defense has allowed a passer rating of just 65.4 (616 Pass Attempts) since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 90.5.

The Bills defense allowed 12 TD passes last season — fewest in NFL.

The Bills defense has allowed 14 TD passes since the 2021 season — fewest in NFL.

Baltimore Ravens Defense: Important Stats for Week 4

The Ravens defense have allowed 26 broken tackles this season — most in NFL.

The Ravens defense has allowed 4 TD passes in close and late situations this season — most in NFL.

The Ravens defense has allowed 365.7 receiving yards per game (1,097/3) this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 246.6.

The Ravens defense has allowed 280.7 receiving yards per game (842/3) to WRs this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 164.6.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.