- The Bills are -9 point favorites vs the Broncos
- Total (Over/Under): 47 points
- Watch this game on CBS | PAR+
The Denver Broncos () visit Highmark Stadium to take on the Buffalo Bills () on Jan. 12. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Orchard Park, NY.
The Bills are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -9 (-110).
The Broncos vs. Bills Over/Under is 47 total points for the game.
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Broncos vs. Bills Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Broncos | +9 -110 | 47 -110 | +350 |
| Bills | -9 -110 | 47 -110 | -450 |
Broncos vs. Bills Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Bills will win this game with 83.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Broncos vs Bills Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Bills will cover the spread with 56.0% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Broncos players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Broncos Player Prop Bets Today
- Bo Nix has hit the TD Passes Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+7.60 Units / 38% ROI)
- Bo Nix has hit the Passing Yards Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+7.25 Units / 39% ROI)
- Marvin Mims Jr. has hit the Receptions Over in his last 6 games (+6.65 Units / 93% ROI)
- Bo Nix has hit the Completions Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.25 Units / 31% ROI)
- Javonte Williams has hit the Carries Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 85% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Bills players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Bills Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Josh Allen has hit the Interceptions Under in 13 of his last 18 games (+7.20 Units / 34% ROI)
- Ray Davis has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.90 Units / 62% ROI)
- Mack Hollins has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.85 Units / 61% ROI)
- Dawson Knox has hit the Receptions Under in 9 of his last 12 games (+4.40 Units / 21% ROI)
- James Cook has hit the Receptions Over in 7 of his last 10 games at home (+4.05 Units / 35% ROI)
First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Bills vs Broncos
| Player Name | 1st TD Odds |
|---|---|
| James Cook (Buf) | +550 |
| Josh Allen (Buf) | +600 |
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Bills vs Broncos
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| James Cook (BUF) | 10.5 -110 | 10.5 -120 |
| Dalton Kincaid (BUF) | 35.5 -115 | 35.5 -115 |
| Courtland Sutton (DEN) | 62.5 -115 | 62.5 -115 |
| Keon Coleman (BUF) | 29.5 -110 | 29.5 -120 |
| Javonte Williams (DEN) | 14.5 -120 | 14.5 -110 |
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Bills vs Broncos
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen (BUF) | 39.5 -120 | 39.5 -110 |
| James Cook (BUF) | 57.5 -110 | 57.5 -120 |
| Ray Davis (BUF) | 18.5 -120 | 18.5 -115 |
| Javonte Williams (DEN) | 12.5 -110 | 12.5 -120 |
Broncos Best Bets:
- The Denver Broncos have covered the Spread in 15 of their last 20 games (+9.55 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Denver Broncos have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 20 games (+9.40 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Denver Broncos have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 11 of their last 13 games (+8.75 Units / 58% ROI)
- The Denver Broncos have hit the Team Total Over in 15 of their last 20 games (+8.50 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Denver Broncos have covered the 1Q Spread in 8 of their last 9 away games (+7.25 Units / 68% ROI)
Bills Best Bets:
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the Team Total Over in 15 of their last 21 games (+8.60 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 14 of their last 19 games (+8.35 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 14 of their last 19 games (+8.25 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 22 games (+7.20 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Buffalo Bills have covered the 2H Spread in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.64 Units / 34% ROI)
Broncos Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Broncos art 12-5 (+6.55 Units / 35.03% ROI).
- Broncos are 10-7 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.35 Units / 19.21% ROI
- Broncos are 10-6 when betting the Over for +3.4 Units / 18.18% ROI
- Broncos are 6-10 when betting the Under for -5 Units / ROI
Bills Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Bills are 10-7 (+2.4 Units / 12.83% ROI).
- Bills are 13-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.8 Units / 17.43% ROI
- Bills are 11-6 when betting the Over for +4.3 Units / 22.87% ROI
- Bills are 6-11 when betting the Under for -6.1 Units / -32.8% ROI
Denver Broncos: Keys to the Game vs. the Buffalo Bills
The Broncos are 3-10 (.231) when throwing at least 1 interception since the 2023 season — 6th-worst in NFL. The Bills have intercepted 34 passes since the 2023 season — 2nd-most in NFL.
The Broncos were 4-8 (.333) when committing 1 or more turnovers last season — T-10th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .406.
The Broncos are 1-5 (.167) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards this season — 7th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .354.
The Broncos are 1-4 (.200) when committing 60 or more yards in penalties this season — T-6th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .440.
Buffalo Bills: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Broncos
The Bills are 15-1 (.938) at home since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .541.
The Bills are 4-1 (.800) vs top 10 run defenses this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .300.
The Bills are winless (0-3) when scoring less than 22 points this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .229.
The Bills are undefeated (8-0) at home this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .524.
Additional Matchup Notes for Denver Broncos vs. Buffalo Bills
The Bills have run successful plays on just 25.3% of pass attempts when their QB was under pressure this season — 4th-worst in NFL. The Broncos have pressured opposing QBs on 30.4% of passing plays this season — 2nd-best in NFL.
The Bills ran successful plays on just 31.2% of pass attempts last week — 4th-worst in NFL. The Broncos allowed successful plays on just 23.5% of pass attempts last week — best in NFL.
Bills RBs have 8 receiving touchdowns this season — most in NFL. The Broncos have allowed 6 receiving touchdowns to RBs this season — T-2nd-most in NFL.
The Broncos have run successful plays on just 42.4% of pass attempts against a stacked front since the 2023 season — 4th-worst in NFL. The Bills have allowed successful plays on just 35.3% of pass attempts with a stacked front since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL.
The Broncos have run successful plays on just 32.4% of pass attempts against a heavy rush this season — 4th-worst in NFL. The Bills have pressured opposing QBs on 55.3% of pass attempts with a heavy rush this season — 2nd-best in NFL.
The Broncos have run successful plays on just 42.4% of pass attempts against a stacked front since the 2023 season — 4th-worst in NFL. The Bills have pressured opposing QBs on 55.9% of pass attempts with a stacked front since the 2023 season — best in NFL.
Denver Broncos Offense: Important Stats
The Broncos ran successful plays on 70% of plays against a base rush in Week 18 — best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.
The Broncos targeted RBs 29% of the time (150 Pass Attempts/513 plays) last season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 17%.
The Broncos ran successful plays on 77% of plays on motion plays in Week 18 — best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.
The Broncos had a third down conversion rate of 71% in Week 18 — best in NFL; League Avg: 40%.
Buffalo Bills Offense: Important Stats
The Bills have averaged 0.26 epa per play on motion plays this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 0.01.
The Bills ran successful plays on 51% of plays in the 4th quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 40%.
The Bills went three and out on 12% of their drives last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 22%.
The Bills have started 25 drives inside opposing territory this season — 2nd-most in NFL.
Denver Broncos Defense: Important Stats
The Broncos defense did not allow a successful play on any rush attempt with a base front in Week 18 — best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.
The Broncos defense did not allow a successful play on any rush attempt in Week 18 — best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.
The Broncos defense allowed successful plays on 10% of plays with a base rush in Week 18 — best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.
The Broncos defense sacked opposing QBs on 23% of pass attempts (5/22) in Week 18 — best in NFL; League Avg: 5%.
Buffalo Bills Defense: Important Stats
The Bills defense has allowed successful plays on 24% of rush attempts with a light front this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.
The Bills defense allowed successful plays on 11% of plays with a light rush last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 39%.
The Bills defense has allowed a passer rating of just 30.1 with a light rush (22 Pass Attempts) since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 86.3.
The Bills defense allowed -0.67 epa per play with a light rush last season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.04.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
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