- The Chargers are -2.5 point favorites vs the Broncos
- Total (Over/Under): 41 points
- Watch this game on Amazon
The Denver Broncos (9-5-0) visit SoFi Stadium to take on the Los Angeles Chargers (8-6-0) on Dec. 19. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15pm EST in Inglewood, CA.
The Chargers are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-115).
The Broncos vs. Chargers Over/Under is 41 total points for the game.
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Broncos vs. Chargers Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Broncos | +2.5 -105 | 41 -110 | +120 |
| Chargers | -2.5 -115 | 41 -120 | -145 |
Broncos vs. Chargers Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Chargers will win this game with 57.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Broncos vs Chargers Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Chargers will cover the spread with 56.0% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Broncos players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Broncos Player Prop Bets Today
- Bo Nix has hit the Passing Yards Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.45 Units / 42% ROI)
- Javonte Williams has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.30 Units / 31% ROI)
- Bo Nix has hit the Interceptions Under in 5 of his last 6 away games (+4.90 Units / 78% ROI)
- Lil’Jordan Humphrey has hit the Receptions Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.30 Units / 38% ROI)
- Bo Nix has hit the TD Passes Over in 8 of his last 11 games (+4.20 Units / 26% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Chargers players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Chargers Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Justin Herbert has hit the Interceptions Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.60 Units / 62% ROI)
- Gus Edwards has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 11 of his last 14 games (+7.50 Units / 46% ROI)
- Justin Herbert has hit the Completions Under in 11 of his last 14 games (+7.40 Units / 45% ROI)
- Gus Edwards has hit the Receptions Under in 7 of his last 9 games (+6.55 Units / 47% ROI)
- Will Dissly has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.40 Units / 37% ROI)
First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Chargers vs Broncos
| Player Name | 1st TD Odds |
|---|---|
| Gus Edwards (LAC) | +600 |
| Ladd McConkey (LAC) | +750 |
| Courtland Sutton (Den) | +800 |
| Javonte Williams (Den) | +825 |
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Chargers vs Broncos
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Javonte Williams (DEN) | 12.5 -140 | 12.5 +105 |
| Courtland Sutton (DEN) | 59.5 -115 | 59.5 -115 |
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Chargers vs Broncos
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Gus Edwards (LAC) | 33.5 -140 | 33.5 +105 |
| Justin Herbert (LAC) | 10.5 -115 | 10.5 -115 |
| Javonte Williams (DEN) | 36.5 -110 | 36.5 -120 |
Broncos Best Bets:
- The Denver Broncos have covered the Spread in 15 of their last 20 games (+9.65 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Denver Broncos have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 20 games (+7.00 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Denver Broncos have hit the 1H Moneyline in 13 of their last 20 games (+6.90 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Denver Broncos have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.80 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Denver Broncos have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 9 away games (+6.75 Units / 65% ROI)
Chargers Best Bets:
- The Los Angeles Chargers have covered the 1H Spread in 13 of their last 20 games (+6.45 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 1H Moneyline in 12 of their last 20 games (+3.90 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 2H Game Total Over in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.77 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 9 of their last 17 games (+3.65 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+3.00 Units / 23% ROI)
Broncos Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Broncos art 11-3 (+7.75 Units / 50.32% ROI).
- Broncos are 9-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.35 Units / 28.77% ROI
- Broncos are 8-5 when betting the Over for +2.5 Units / 16.23% ROI
- Broncos are 5-8 when betting the Under for -3.8 Units / ROI
Chargers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Chargers are 9-4 (+4.6 Units / 29.87% ROI).
- Chargers are 8-6 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.15 Units / 4.96% ROI
- Chargers are 5-9 when betting the Over for -4.9 Units / -31.82% ROI
- Chargers are 9-5 when betting the Under for +3.5 Units / 22.73% ROI
Denver Broncos: Keys to the Game vs. the Los Angeles Chargers
The Broncos are undefeated (4-0) when passing for more than 250 yards this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .580.
The Broncos are undefeated (8-0) when scoring 22 or more points this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .749.
The Broncos were winless (0-6) when committing 2 or more turnovers last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .293.
The Broncos were 3-5 (.375) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team last season — 8th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.
Los Angeles Chargers: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Broncos
The Chargers were winless (0-9) when converting less than 55% of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .464.
The Chargers are 1-9 (.100) when within 3 points at the two minute warning since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.
The Chargers were winless (0-11) when trailing at the end of the third quarter last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .148.
The Chargers were winless (0-5) when trailing at the end of quarter 1 last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .263.
Additional Matchup Notes for Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers have gone three and out on 28.9% of their drives this season — worst in NFL. The Broncos have forced three and outs on 26.2% of opponent drives this season — 5th-best in NFL.
The Chargers have run successful plays on just 38.7% of rush attempts this season — 5th-worst in NFL. The Broncos have allowed successful plays on just 34.1% of rush attempts this season — best in NFL.
The Chargers have run successful plays on just 26.1% of rush attempts against a light front this season — 2nd-worst in NFL. The Broncos have allowed successful plays on just 26.8% of rush attempts with a light front this season — 3rd-best in NFL.
The Broncos have run successful plays on just 39.3% of pass attempts against a stacked front since the 2023 season — 4th-worst in NFL. The Chargers have allowed successful plays on just 27.8% of pass attempts with a stacked front since the 2023 season — best in NFL.
The Broncos have been successful on just 38.0% of plays they have run with motion this season — 5th-worst in NFL. The Chargers have allowed their opponents to be successful on just 41.1% of plays against motion this season — T-5th-best in NFL.
The Broncos have run successful plays on just 37.1% of pass attempts with motion this season — 2nd-worst in NFL. The Chargers have allowed successful plays on just 40.8% of pass attempts against motion this season — 2nd-best in NFL.
Denver Broncos Offense: Important Stats
The Broncos targeted RBs 29% of the time (150 Pass Attempts/513 plays) last season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 17%.
The Broncos started 4 drives inside opposing territory in Week 15 — T-most in NFL.
The Broncos have averaged 0.13 epa per play on contested throws since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: -0.10.
The Broncos went three and out 14 times in the 3rd quarter last season — T-most in NFL.
Los Angeles Chargers Offense: Important Stats
The Chargers have thrown the ball 17% of the time (7 Pass Attempts/42 plays) on 3rd and short this season — 2nd-lowest in NFL; League Avg: 44%.
The Chargers ran successful plays on 29% of pass attempts against a stacked front last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 50%.
The Chargers have run successful plays on 32% of plays in the 2nd half this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.
9% of the Chargers offense’s first downs (1 of 11) came on the ground in Week 15 — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 39%.
Denver Broncos Defense: Important Stats
The Broncos defense allowed a passer rating of 135.6 against play action passes (123 Pass Attempts) last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 101.1.
The Broncos defense has allowed successful plays on 35% of plays on motion plays this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.
The Broncos defense has allowed successful plays on 29% of plays with a light front this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 40%.
The Broncos defense have allowed -0.18 epa per play against play action passes this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 0.08.
Los Angeles Chargers Defense: Important Stats
The Chargers defense allowed 0.64 epa per play with a light rush last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.04.
The Chargers defense has allowed a passer rating of just 56.0 with a stacked front (18 Pass Attempts) since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 110.1.
The Chargers defense has allowed an average of 2.2 yards after contact per carry (809 carries) since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 1.9.
The Chargers defense allowed 17 TDs that were 20+ yards last season — 2nd-most in NFL.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
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