Broncos vs Saints Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets โ€“ NFL, Week 7

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(AP Photo/Matt Durisko)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 16, 2024, 2:23 PM
  • The Broncos are -2.5 point favorites vs the Saints
  • Total (Over/Under): 37 points
  • Watch this game on Amazon

The Denver Broncos (3-3-0) visit Caesars Superdome to take on the New Orleans Saints (2-4-0) on Oct. 17. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15pm EDT in New Orleans, LA.

The Broncos are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-115).

The Broncos vs. Saints Over/Under is 37 total points for the game.

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Broncos vs. Saints Odds, Spread, Over/Under

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Broncos-2.5 -11537 -110-145
Saints +2.5 -10537 -110+120

Broncos vs. Saints Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Saints will win this game with 60.1% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Broncos vs Saints Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Saints will cover the spread with 60.1% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Broncos players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Broncos Player Prop Bets Today

  • Javonte Williams has hit the Receptions Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+7.85 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Josh Reynolds has hit the Receptions Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.35 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Courtland Sutton has hit the Longest Reception Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.65 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Marvin Mims Jr. has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.45 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Courtland Sutton has hit the Receptions Under in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.30 Units / 26% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Saints players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Saints Player Prop Best Bets Today

  • Derek Carr has hit the TD Passes Over in 10 of his last 16 games (+7.30 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Foster Moreau has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.80 Units / 60% ROI)
  • Alvin Kamara has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.45 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Cedrick Wilson has hit the Receptions Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+5.05 Units / 52% ROI)
  • Derek Carr has hit the Pass Attempts Under in 11 of his last 16 games (+4.80 Units / 24% ROI)

First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Saints vs Broncos

Player Name 1st TD Odds
Alvin Kamara (NO) +450
Javonte Williams (Den) +700
Rashid Shaheed (NO) +800

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Saints vs Broncos

Player Name Anytime TD Odds
Alvin Kamara (NO) -115

Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Saints vs Broncos

Player Name Over Under
Javonte Williams (DEN) 17.5 -110 17.5 -120
Alvin Kamara (NO) 33.5 -115 33.5 -115
Courtland Sutton (DEN) 45.5 -120 45.5 -110

Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Saints vs Broncos

Player Name Over Under
Javonte Williams (DEN) 47.5 -120 47.5 -115
Alvin Kamara (NO) 71.5 -115 71.5 -120
  • The Denver Broncos have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 20 games (+11.30 Units / 41% ROI)
  • The Denver Broncos have hit the 1H Moneyline in 13 of their last 20 games (+9.85 Units / 38% ROI)
  • The Denver Broncos have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 9 of their last 16 games (+7.15 Units / 39% ROI)
  • The Denver Broncos have covered the 4Q Spread in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.10 Units / 37% ROI)
  • The Denver Broncos have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 20 games (+6.35 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Saints have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 15 of their last 20 games (+9.30 Units / 41% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Saints have hit the 2H Moneyline in 9 of their last 11 games (+7.25 Units / 44% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Saints have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 17 games (+7.15 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Saints have covered the 2H Spread in 9 of their last 11 games (+7.00 Units / 59% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Saints have covered the 4Q Spread in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.55 Units / 34% ROI)

Broncos Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Broncos art 4-2 (+1.85 Units / 28.46% ROI).

  • Broncos are 3-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.35 Units / 51.54% ROI
  • Broncos are 3-3 when betting the Over for -0.3 Units / -4.55% ROI
  • Broncos are 3-3 when betting the Under for -0.3 Units / ROI

Saints Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Saints are 3-3 (-0.3 Units / -4.62% ROI).

  • Saints are 2-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.1 Units / -15.07% ROI
  • Saints are 4-2 when betting the Over for +1.8 Units / 27.27% ROI
  • Saints are 2-4 when betting the Under for -2.4 Units / -36.36% ROI

Denver Broncos: Keys to the Game vs. the New Orleans Saints

The Broncos were winless (0-6) when committing 2 or more turnovers last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .293.

The Broncos were 1-7 (.125) when not forcing a fumble last season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .422.

The Broncos were 2-6 (.250) when allowing 3 or more sacks last season — T-8th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .350.

The Broncos are 9-3 (.750) when forcing at least one fumble since the 2023 season — T-6th-best in NFL; League Avg: .615.

New Orleans Saints: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Broncos

The Saints are winless (0-3) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .445.

The Saints were winless (0-7) when trailing at the end of the third quarter last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .148.

The Saints are winless (0-7) vs top 10 offenses since the 2023 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .348.

The Saints are undefeated (6-0) vs bottom 10 offenses since the 2023 season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .621.

Denver Broncos Offense: Important Stats

The Broncos have run successful plays on 24% of pass attempts on motion plays this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 47%.

The Broncos have run successful plays on 28% of pass attempts in the 1st half this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

The Broncos have gone three and out 9 times in the 1st quarter this season — most in NFL.

The Broncos have targeted RBs 27% of the time (192 Pass Attempts/711 plays) since the 2023 season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

New Orleans Saints Offense: Important Stats

The Saints targeted RBs 30% of the time (12 Pass Attempts/40 plays) in Week 6 — 2nd-highest in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

The Saints averaged 0.26 epa per play on contested throws last season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.12.

The Saints have run the ball on 69% of plays (35 carries/51 plays) in the red zone this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 49%.

The Saints have thrown the ball 75% of the time (12 Pass Attempts/16 plays) in close and late situations since the 2023 season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 55%.

Denver Broncos Defense: Important Stats

The Broncos defense have allowed 0.07 epa per play open coverage this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 0.39.

The Broncos defense allowed a passer rating of 135.6 against play action passes (123 Pass Attempts) last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 101.1.

The Broncos defense has allowed successful plays on 22% of rush attempts in the 4th quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

Only 6% of the plays run against the Broncos have been in the red zone in the 2nd half this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 15%.

New Orleans Saints Defense: Important Stats

The Saints defense have allowed -1.10 epa per play with tight coverage this season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.43.

The Saints defense allowed 7 broken tackles in Week 6 — T-2nd-most in NFL.

The Saints defense allowed a third down conversion rate of 41% on 3rd and short last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 59%.

The Saints defense has allowed a Completion Pct of just 33% (11 completions/33 attempts) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 61%.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.