- The Broncos are -2.5 point favorites vs the Saints
- Total (Over/Under): 37 points
- Watch this game on Amazon
The Denver Broncos (3-3-0) visit Caesars Superdome to take on the New Orleans Saints (2-4-0) on Oct. 17. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15pm EDT in New Orleans, LA.
The Broncos are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-115).
The Broncos vs. Saints Over/Under is 37 total points for the game.
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Broncos vs. Saints Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Broncos | -2.5 -115 | 37 -110 | -145 |
| Saints | +2.5 -105 | 37 -110 | +120 |
Broncos vs. Saints Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Saints will win this game with 60.1% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Broncos vs Saints Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Saints will cover the spread with 60.1% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Broncos players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Broncos Player Prop Bets Today
- Javonte Williams has hit the Receptions Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+7.85 Units / 39% ROI)
- Josh Reynolds has hit the Receptions Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.35 Units / 28% ROI)
- Courtland Sutton has hit the Longest Reception Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.65 Units / 48% ROI)
- Marvin Mims Jr. has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.45 Units / 38% ROI)
- Courtland Sutton has hit the Receptions Under in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.30 Units / 26% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Saints players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Saints Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Derek Carr has hit the TD Passes Over in 10 of his last 16 games (+7.30 Units / 45% ROI)
- Foster Moreau has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.80 Units / 60% ROI)
- Alvin Kamara has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.45 Units / 30% ROI)
- Cedrick Wilson has hit the Receptions Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+5.05 Units / 52% ROI)
- Derek Carr has hit the Pass Attempts Under in 11 of his last 16 games (+4.80 Units / 24% ROI)
First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Saints vs Broncos
| Player Name | 1st TD Odds |
|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara (NO) | +450 |
| Javonte Williams (Den) | +700 |
| Rashid Shaheed (NO) | +800 |
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Saints vs Broncos
| Player Name | Anytime TD Odds |
|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara (NO) | -115 |
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Saints vs Broncos
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Javonte Williams (DEN) | 17.5 -110 | 17.5 -120 |
| Alvin Kamara (NO) | 33.5 -115 | 33.5 -115 |
| Courtland Sutton (DEN) | 45.5 -120 | 45.5 -110 |
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Saints vs Broncos
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Javonte Williams (DEN) | 47.5 -120 | 47.5 -115 |
| Alvin Kamara (NO) | 71.5 -115 | 71.5 -120 |
Broncos Best Bets:
- The Denver Broncos have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 20 games (+11.30 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Denver Broncos have hit the 1H Moneyline in 13 of their last 20 games (+9.85 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Denver Broncos have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 9 of their last 16 games (+7.15 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Denver Broncos have covered the 4Q Spread in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.10 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Denver Broncos have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 20 games (+6.35 Units / 25% ROI)
Saints Best Bets:
- The New Orleans Saints have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 15 of their last 20 games (+9.30 Units / 41% ROI)
- The New Orleans Saints have hit the 2H Moneyline in 9 of their last 11 games (+7.25 Units / 44% ROI)
- The New Orleans Saints have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 17 games (+7.15 Units / 33% ROI)
- The New Orleans Saints have covered the 2H Spread in 9 of their last 11 games (+7.00 Units / 59% ROI)
- The New Orleans Saints have covered the 4Q Spread in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.55 Units / 34% ROI)
Broncos Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Broncos art 4-2 (+1.85 Units / 28.46% ROI).
- Broncos are 3-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.35 Units / 51.54% ROI
- Broncos are 3-3 when betting the Over for -0.3 Units / -4.55% ROI
- Broncos are 3-3 when betting the Under for -0.3 Units / ROI
Saints Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Saints are 3-3 (-0.3 Units / -4.62% ROI).
- Saints are 2-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.1 Units / -15.07% ROI
- Saints are 4-2 when betting the Over for +1.8 Units / 27.27% ROI
- Saints are 2-4 when betting the Under for -2.4 Units / -36.36% ROI
Denver Broncos: Keys to the Game vs. the New Orleans Saints
The Broncos were winless (0-6) when committing 2 or more turnovers last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .293.
The Broncos were 1-7 (.125) when not forcing a fumble last season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .422.
The Broncos were 2-6 (.250) when allowing 3 or more sacks last season — T-8th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .350.
The Broncos are 9-3 (.750) when forcing at least one fumble since the 2023 season — T-6th-best in NFL; League Avg: .615.
New Orleans Saints: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Broncos
The Saints are winless (0-3) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .445.
The Saints were winless (0-7) when trailing at the end of the third quarter last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .148.
The Saints are winless (0-7) vs top 10 offenses since the 2023 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .348.
The Saints are undefeated (6-0) vs bottom 10 offenses since the 2023 season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .621.
Denver Broncos Offense: Important Stats
The Broncos have run successful plays on 24% of pass attempts on motion plays this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 47%.
The Broncos have run successful plays on 28% of pass attempts in the 1st half this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 46%.
The Broncos have gone three and out 9 times in the 1st quarter this season — most in NFL.
The Broncos have targeted RBs 27% of the time (192 Pass Attempts/711 plays) since the 2023 season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 17%.
New Orleans Saints Offense: Important Stats
The Saints targeted RBs 30% of the time (12 Pass Attempts/40 plays) in Week 6 — 2nd-highest in NFL; League Avg: 17%.
The Saints averaged 0.26 epa per play on contested throws last season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.12.
The Saints have run the ball on 69% of plays (35 carries/51 plays) in the red zone this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 49%.
The Saints have thrown the ball 75% of the time (12 Pass Attempts/16 plays) in close and late situations since the 2023 season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 55%.
Denver Broncos Defense: Important Stats
The Broncos defense have allowed 0.07 epa per play open coverage this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 0.39.
The Broncos defense allowed a passer rating of 135.6 against play action passes (123 Pass Attempts) last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 101.1.
The Broncos defense has allowed successful plays on 22% of rush attempts in the 4th quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.
Only 6% of the plays run against the Broncos have been in the red zone in the 2nd half this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 15%.
New Orleans Saints Defense: Important Stats
The Saints defense have allowed -1.10 epa per play with tight coverage this season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.43.
The Saints defense allowed 7 broken tackles in Week 6 — T-2nd-most in NFL.
The Saints defense allowed a third down conversion rate of 41% on 3rd and short last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 59%.
The Saints defense has allowed a Completion Pct of just 33% (11 completions/33 attempts) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 61%.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
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