- The Broncos are a 5.5-point home favorite against the Browns.
- The Broncos have won 11 straight games against the Browns following a win.
- My Broncos vs. Browns prediction focuses on the pregame over/under.
Week 13’s MNF contest sees the Denver Broncos host the Cleveland Browns with both teams coming off victories.
The Broncos moved to 5-0 SU & ATS as market favorites this season with a 29-19 win over the Raiders in Week 12. Following the win, the Broncos’ playoff chances moved from -105 to -155.
Cleveland won 24-19 as home underdogs against the Steelers in Week 12, their first win since Week 8. Still, Cleveland is 3-8 on the season.
Bet on Broncos vs. Browns and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.
NFL Week 13 Odds: Broncos vs. Browns
Dec 2 - 8 pm ESTBrowns at Broncos
Broncos vs. Browns Prediction, MNF
Based on the Broncos’ strong defensive record and Cleveland’s added rest before Monday’s game, my Broncos vs. Browns prediction is Under 42 Points (-110).
Only two Broncos home games have cleared this number this season.
The first came against the Raiders, which sits 29th in defensive DVOA. Plus, that game featured two touchdowns over 50 yards, which is unsustainable over the long term.
The second clearance came two weeks ago against the Falcons, which sits 25th in defensive DVOA. Atlanta played without seven defensive starters and allowed 38 points.
Although Cleveland’s defense ranks 21st in defensive DVOA, it has come against the sixth-hardest set of opposing offenses.
They’re also fully healthy on the defensive side of the ball.
What’s slightly concerning here is Cleveland’s defense basically either shuts the team down or allows explosive plays.
The Browns sit 19th in defensive EPA per play compared to eighth in defensive success rate, per rbsdm.com.
If Cleveland can clean up the horrific mistakes, I like this spot against a Broncos offense that scored six points vs. Pittsburgh and 10 points at Baltimore.
That said, don’t expect the Cleveland offense to accomplish anything significant against Denver.
The Browns have managed more than 17 points only once away from home. That came in Week 2 at Jacksonville, a side miles behind Denver in defensive DVOA.
Only twice this season has a road team crossed 17 points against the Broncos in Denver. Once by the Raiders with most coming in garbage time and once by the Chargers on extended rest.
History also likes this game finishing under the total.
Since 2019, games featuring a total between 40.5 and 49 with the road team playing on 10+ days between games are 67% to the under.
When those games close with a total between 40.5 and 42, they’re 18-1 to the under.
Betting Broncos vs. Browns: NFL Public Betting
Check back on Friday for Broncos vs. Browns public betting data and insights.
