- The Broncos are a 3.5-point home favorite against the Colts.
- The favorites have won each of the Broncos' last nine games.
- My Broncos vs. Colts prediction focuses on the over/under.
Looking to halve their deficit against Denver for the final playoff spot, the Colts travel to face the Broncos in Week 15.
Both teams rested in Week 14 after wins the week prior. Denver captured a home win and cover over Cleveland, largely because of two pick-sixes.
Indianapolis used a strong second half to capture a 25-24 win over the Patriots, their second win in the previous three games.
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NFL Week 15 Odds: Broncos vs. Colts
2024-12-15T21:25:00ZColts at Broncos
Broncos vs. Colts Prediction
Based on the Colts’ weak record against strong defenses and Denver’s penchant for low-scoring contests, my Broncos vs. Colts prediction is Under 44.5 Points (-110).
The Colts have accomplished little offensively this season. Irrespective of whether Joe Flacco or Anthony Richardson quarterbacked the team, the Colts rank 22nd in offensive DVOA.
While that record has come against the fourth-hardest set of opposing defenses, the opponent gets no easier in Week 15.
The Broncos defense ranks fifth in defensive DVOA, albeit against the seventh-easiest set of opposing offenses.
Rarely, though, has the Broncos defense surrendered loads of points at home.
Cleveland’s 32-point explosion is fluky by Denver’s standards, as only one other opponent has scored 19 points at Mile High.
It’s also a major step up in competition for Richardson in terms of defensive quality away from home after playing a bad New England defense.
The Florida product has played two road games this season against teams 10th or better by defensive DVOA. He led Indy to 10 points at Green Bay and 20 points against Houston.
But against a Denver defense playing on extended rest at home, I question if Richardson leads Indy to a point total that eclipses those performances.
At the same time, I maintain my belief Denver’s offense isn’t actually that good. They’ve largely benefitted from playing an easy schedule of opposing defenses.
Sean Payton’s team ranks 20th in offensive DVOA against the seventh-easiest set of opposing defenses, per ftnfantasy.com.
With the Colts carrying added rest for Sunday’s game, I’ll trust a defense that’s 16th in defensive DVOA.
History also likes this under as games with two teams holding 11-15 days between games are 32-23 to the under since 2003. Just since 2021, those games are 13-1 to the under.
Betting Broncos vs. Colts: NFL Public Betting
Check back on Friday for Broncos vs. Colts public betting data and insights.
