Browns vs Steelers Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 14

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Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver George Pickens (14) runs the ball in front of Seattle Seahawks safety Julian Love, back, during the first half of an NFL football game Sunday, Dec. 31, 2023, in Seattle. The Steelers won 30-23. (AP Photo/Lindsey Wasson)

(AP Photo/Lindsey Wasson)

BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Dec 04, 2024, 1:59 PM

The Steelers are -6.5 point favorites vs the Browns
Total (Over/Under): 44 points
Watch this game on CBS

The Cleveland Browns (3-9-0) visit Acrisure Stadium to take on the Pittsburgh Steelers (9-3-0) on Dec. 8. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Pittsburgh, PA.

The Steelers are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -6.5 (-110).

The Browns vs. Steelers Over/Under is 44 total points for the game.

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Browns vs. Steelers Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Browns	+6.5 -110	44 -105	+225
Steelers	-6.5 -110	44 -115	-275

Browns vs. Steelers Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Steelers will win this game with 57.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Browns vs Steelers Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Steelers will cover the spread with 54.0% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Browns players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Browns Player Prop Bets Today

Jerome Ford has hit the Carries Under in 11 of his last 14 games (+7.60 Units / 46% ROI)
Deshaun Watson has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 85% ROI)
David Njoku has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+5.40 Units / 33% ROI)
David Njoku has hit the Longest Reception Over in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 85% ROI)
Deshaun Watson has hit the Interceptions Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+4.40 Units / 70% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Steelers players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Steelers Player Prop Best Bets Today

Russell Wilson has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 84% ROI)
Russell Wilson has hit the Pass Attempts Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.90 Units / 65% ROI)
George Pickens has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+6.90 Units / 32% ROI)
Najee Harris has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+5.35 Units / 26% ROI)
Jaylen Warren has hit the Receptions Over in 9 of his last 14 games (+4.90 Units / 33% ROI)

Browns Best Bets:

The Cleveland Browns have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 18 games (+4.90 Units / 24% ROI)
The Cleveland Browns have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 21 games (+4.20 Units / 18% ROI)
The Cleveland Browns have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 13 of their last 21 games (+3.70 Units / 15% ROI)
The Cleveland Browns have covered the 4Q Spread in 11 of their last 18 games (+3.40 Units / 17% ROI)
The Cleveland Browns have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 9 of their last 18 games (+2.65 Units / 12% ROI)

Steelers Best Bets:

The Pittsburgh Steelers have covered the 2H Spread in 12 of their last 14 games (+9.75 Units / 59% ROI)
The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 18 games (+9.25 Units / 41% ROI)
The Pittsburgh Steelers have covered the 3Q Spread in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.55 Units / 34% ROI)
The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 2H Moneyline in 8 of their last 14 games (+5.20 Units / 28% ROI)
The Pittsburgh Steelers have covered the 4Q Spread in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.20 Units / 25% ROI)

Browns Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Browns art 4-8 (-4.85 Units / -36.33% ROI).

Browns are 3-9 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.85 Units / -39.53% ROI
Browns are 6-6 when betting the Over for -0.6 Units / -4.55% ROI
Browns are 6-6 when betting the Under for -0.6 Units / ROI

Steelers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Steelers are 9-3 (+5.6 Units / 42.59% ROI).

Steelers are 9-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.1 Units / 35.47% ROI
Steelers are 7-5 when betting the Over for +1.5 Units / 11.36% ROI
Steelers are 5-7 when betting the Under for -2.7 Units / -20.45% ROI

Cleveland Browns: Keys to the Game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers

The Browns were 3-1 (.750) when not forcing a turnover last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .265.

The Browns were undefeated (4-0) when the opposing team converts less than 55% of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season — best in NFL; League Avg: .536.

The Browns were 8-3 (.727) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties last season — T-4th-best in NFL; League Avg: .505.

The Browns are 1-5 (.167) on the road this season — 4th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.

Pittsburgh Steelers: Keys to the Game vs. the Cleveland Browns

The Steelers are 18-6 (.750) when forcing 1 or more turnovers since the 2023 season — 6th-best in NFL. The Browns have turned the ball over 57 times since the 2023 season — most in NFL.

The Steelers are 11-1 (.917) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .571.

The Steelers were undefeated (5-0) when making 7 or more explosive plays last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .625.

The Steelers were undefeated (3-0) when passing for more than 250 yards last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .586.

Additional Matchup Notes for Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers have been successful on just 40.2% of plays they have run on play action passes this season — 4th-worst in NFL. The Browns have allowed their opponents to be successful on just 39.8% of plays on play action passes this season — 3rd-best in NFL.

The Steelers have run successful plays on just 36.5% of rush attempts against a base front this season — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Browns have allowed successful plays on just 37.6% of rush attempts with a base front this season — 5th-best in NFL.

The Steelers have run successful plays on just 45.2% of pass attempts on play action passes since the 2023 season — 5th-worst in NFL. The Browns have allowed successful plays on just 46.1% of pass attempts on play action passes since the 2023 season — 3rd-best in NFL.

The Browns have averaged just -0.10 epa per play against a base front since the 2023 season — 5th-worst in NFL. The Steelers have allowed just -0.07 epa per play with a base front since the 2023 season — T-4th-best in NFL.

The Browns have been successful on just 39.1% of plays they have run against a base front since the 2023 season — 5th-worst in NFL. The Steelers have allowed their opponents to be successful on just 41.1% of plays with a base front since the 2023 season — 5th-best in NFL.

The Browns have been successful on just 37.9% of plays they have run since the 2023 season — 5th-worst in NFL. The Steelers have allowed their opponents to be successful on just 40.5% of plays since the 2023 season — 5th-best in NFL.

Cleveland Browns Offense: Important Stats

The Browns have run successful plays on 35% of pass attempts on motion plays since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 47%.

The Browns have averaged -0.36 epa per play on motion plays this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.00.

The Browns have a third down conversion rate of 15% on motion plays this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

The Browns have averaged 0.00 epa per play against open coverage this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.40.

Pittsburgh Steelers Offense: Important Stats

The Steelers had 9 receptions for 20+ yards in Week 13 — most in NFL.

The Steelers have averaged 0.25 epa per play on contested throws this season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.08.

The Steelers started 21 drives inside their own 10 yard line last season — T-2nd-most in NFL.

The Steelers targeted RBs 34% of the time (13 Pass Attempts/38 plays) in Week 13 — highest in NFL; League Avg: 14%.

Cleveland Browns Defense: Important Stats

The Browns defense allowed successful plays on 11% of plays on contested throws last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 33%.

The Browns defense allowed a passer rating of just 62.5 first read passes (281 Pass Attempts) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 95.1.

The Browns defense allowed successful plays on 38% of pass attempts first read passes last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 52%.

The Browns defense allowed successful plays on 35% of pass attempts last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

Pittsburgh Steelers Defense: Important Stats

The Steelers defense allowed a passer rating of just 51.0 in the red zone (71 Pass Attempts) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 93.0.

The Steelers defense has allowed a passer rating of just 60.0 in the red zone (118 Pass Attempts) since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 93.7.

The Steelers defense has allowed successful plays on 34% of plays in the 3rd quarter since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Steelers defense forced 8 turnovers in the red zone last season — most in NFL.

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