- The Browns are a 5.5-point home underdog against the Bengals.
- Cleveland has won six straight home games outright against the Bengals.
- My Browns vs. Bengals prediction is for the Browns to cover the spread.
The current AFC North bottomfeeders meet Sunday in Cleveland, with the 1-5 Browns hosting the 2-4 Bengals.
Cincinnati, after starting the season 0-3, has won two of its last three to move to 2-4 SU. This season, Zac Taylor’s side is 2-2 ATS as a market favorite.
Cleveland is in dire straits after losing four consecutive games. In Week 6, they fell 20-16 as road underdogs against the Eagles.
Bet on Browns vs. Bengals and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.
NFL Week 7 Odds: Browns vs. Bengals
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bengals | -5.5 (-115) | 41.5 (-110) | -250 |
| Browns | +5.5 (-105) | 41.5 (-110) | +200 |
Browns vs. Bengals Prediction
Based on Cleveland’s strong defense and historically profitable betting trends, my Browns vs. Bengals prediction is the Browns Spread (+4.5, -110).
This bet makes me so uncomfortable. However, it’s a natural buy-low spot on a Browns team coming off three straight road games.
For all of Cleveland’s issues this season, the Browns are ninth in PFF’s defensive grades and 10th in defensive success rate.
Insanely worrisome is that Cleveland’s 26th-ranked coverage unit faces a Bengals team first in the corresponding offensive category.
But I’m not sure the general public has grasped how bad Cincinnati’s defense is playing.
Cincinnati is T-22nd in PFF’s defensive grades and 31st in defensive success rate.
Even if the Bengals jump out to an early lead, I believe the backdoor cover will always be open for Cleveland.
Cleveland also matches two historically profitable systems in Week 7.
Since 2003, divisional dogs between +1.5 and +5 with a total south of 43 points are 58.5% ATS, assuming the dog’s previous game margin fell between -17 and -1.
Just since 2019, those underdogs improve to 30-11-1 ATS (73%), including 12-5-1 at home.
Additionally, home underdogs between +1 and +5.5 in games 4-7 are 67.5% ATS since 2003, assuming the opponent is on a one-game winning streak.
When the total in those games is below 44.5 points, the underdog improves to 37-10-2 ATS (79%).
Add in the Bengals have attracted a majority of bets in every game it has closed a market favorite, and I’ll trust the Browns above two key numbers.
Based on the Browns shipping off Amari Cooper to Buffalo, I predict Cleveland finishes Under 4.5 Wins (-120).
The only threat to this bet is Kevin Stefanski benching Deshaun Watson. The Browns head coach doesn’t seem willing to make that change.
Cleveland entered the season with the third hardest strength of schedule based on opponent win totals. They still have all six division games left and will likely be an underdog in all six.
Beyond those games, from where are the wins coming?
This team is 1-5, having yet to put their 32nd-ranked offense against a team 10th or better in defensive EPA per play.
In Cleveland’s final 11 games, they play five against teams currently 10th or better in defensive DVOA and eight against teams currently 14th or better, per ftnfantasy.com.
That, in my estimation, leaves three realistic winnable games: both games against Cincinnati and a home game against the Dolphins.
Cleveland’s already a 6.5-point underdog this week and likely closes as a double-digit underdog in Cincinnati.
As a result, I have a hard time seeing how Cleveland gets to five wins this season.
Browns vs. Bengals: NFL Public Betting Trends
| Bets% (Spread) | Money% (Spread) | Bets% (ML) | Money% (ML) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bengals | 69% | 65% | 55% | 57% |
| Browns | 31% | 35% | 45% | 43% |
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