- The Browns are a 4-point home underdog against the Chiefs.
- The Chiefs have won 13 straight games against opponents on a losing streak.
- My Browns vs. Chiefs prediction is for Kansas City to cover the spread.
On the heels of capturing the AFC West division title, the Chiefs travel to Cleveland for a Week 15 meeting with the Browns.
Kansas City’s last-second field goal against the Chargers provided an 11th consecutive division title for the Chiefs. However, despite sitting at 12-1 SU, the Chiefs are 4-9 ATS.
Cleveland lost for the second straight game in Week 14 against division rivals Pittsburgh. Since Jameis Winston assumed the starting role, the Browns are 2-4 SU.
Bet on Browns vs. Chiefs and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.
NFL Week 15 Odds: Browns vs. Chiefs
2024-12-15T18:00:00ZChiefs at Browns
Browns vs. Chiefs Prediction
Based on the problematic matchup for the Browns offense on Sunday, my Browns vs. Chiefs prediction is the Chiefs Spread (-4, -110).
Market support has steamed Cleveland down from +6 at market open, so I don’t think there’s harm in waiting for this number to drop further. Ideally, bettors get the Chiefs -3.
The Chiefs are fraudulent based on their expected win-loss record, but I’m not sure this is the spot to fade Kansas City.
It is a nightmare spot for the Chiefs after capturing the division title on Sunday Night Football. However, I’m unsure how Cleveland moves the ball and scores enough to cover.
The biggest improvement for Cleveland’s offense under Winston is their ability to run the ball on early downs.
In Weeks 1-7, Cleveland ranked 26th in rush EPA per play and 30th in rush success rate on first and second down, per rbsdm.com.
Since Week 8, they’ve improved to 15th and 20th in those respective categories.
The problem? Kansas City’s defense counts itself amongst the best units at stopping the run on early downs.
For the season, Kansas City ranks fifth in defensive rush EPA per play and defensive rush success rate on early downs.
Where the Chiefs can be exploited is on third down, particularly through the air.
The Chiefs rank 18th in opponent third down conversion percentage, 18th in pass EPA per play and 20th in pass success rate on third down.
But that isn’t the strength of Cleveland’s offense. Under Winston, the Browns rank 28th in EPA per play and 30th in success rate, including 27th through the air, on third down.
Plus, this game actually fits a spot where Mahomes performs well against the spread.
For his career, Mahomes is 18-12-2 ATS, including 10-4-1 away from home, against teams off a loss by at least a touchdown.
When Mahomes falls between -9 and +3 in that spot: 13-3-1 ATS.
Betting Browns vs. Chiefs: NFL Public Betting
Check back on Friday for Browns vs. Chiefs public betting data and insights.
