- The Browns are a 3.5-point home underdog against the Steelers.
- The Browns have won eight straight Thursday games at Huntington Bank Field.
- My Browns vs. Steelers prediction focuses on the pregame total and a team total.
For the second of four straight divisional games, the Steelers travel to Cleveland to face the Browns on Thursday.
Pittsburgh earned an outright 18-16 win as home underdogs against Baltimore in Week 11. That win vaulted the Steelers to 8-2 with a 1.5-game lead in the AFC North.
Cleveland’s Week 11 result left a lot to be desired. As road favorites in New Orleans, the Browns fell 35-14. That marks Cleveland’s second straight loss by double digits.
Bet on Browns vs. Steelers and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.
NFL Week 12 Odds: Browns vs. Steelers
Browns vs. Steelers Prediction, TNF
Based on Pittsburgh’s strong defensive record and Mike Tomlin’s penchant for low-scoring road games, my Browns vs. Steelers prediction is the Browns Under 16.5 Points (-110) and Under 37 Points (-115).
The known quantity in this game is Pittsburgh’s defense. Tomlin’s unit ranks eighth in defensive DVOA and sixth in expected points added (EPA) per play.
Pittsburgh just held Baltimore to a measly 16 points. For reference, the Ravens came into the game averaging 31.8 points per game.
Cleveland’s offense has looked better under Jameis Winston. However, they remain a team that has scored 14 or fewer points in three of four behind their backup.
Plus, Pittsburgh’s defense is the best opponent Cleveland will have faced under Winston. Against a Chargers defense 10th in defensive DVOA, the Browns managed only 10 points.
But I’m also taking the chance to buy low on Cleveland’s defense.
Although they allowed 35 points to New Orleans, they allowed two scores from beyond 70 yards. That likely won’t repeat week over week.
Of the 49 points scored in Browns at Saints, 30 came on scores from beyond 30 yards with 18 coming from scores over 70!
Yet, the total is still low, which tells me this will prove a low-scoring contest.
Since 2019, outdoor contests with a total south of 39 points are 65-42-1 (60.7%) to the under, including 29-11-1 when the game features a home underdog.
When Mike Tomlin is the visiting coach under that scenario, the under is 7-3. In general, Tomlin’s road games are 58% to the under, including 28-17-1 since 2019.
Pair those trends with the short trip for both teams, and I’ll back the under on Thursday.
Betting Browns vs. Steelers: NFL Public Betting
| Bets% (Spread) | Money% (Spread) | Bets% (ML) | Money% (ML) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steelers | 90% | 84% | 77% | 89% |
| Browns | 10% | 16% | 23% | 11% |
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