Buccaneers vs Falcons Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets โ€“ NFL, Week 5

Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson (7) catches a pass for a touchdown during the second half of an NFL football game against the New Orleans Saints, Sunday, Nov. 26, 2023, in Atlanta. The Atlanta Falcons won 24-15. (AP Photo/Danny Karnik)
(AP Photo/Danny Karnik)
  • The Falcons are -1.5 point favorites vs the Buccaneers
  • Total (Over/Under): 44 points
  • Watch this game on Amazon

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1-0) visit Mercedes-Benz Stadium to take on the Atlanta Falcons (2-2-0) on Oct. 3. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15pm EDT in Atlanta, GA.

The Falcons are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -1.5 (-110).

The Buccaneers vs. Falcons Over/Under is 44 total points for the game.

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Buccaneers vs. Falcons Odds, Spread, Over/Under

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Buccaneers+1.5 -11044 -110+105
Falcons -1.5 -11044 -110-125

Buccaneers vs. Falcons Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Falcons will win this game with 57.4% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Buccaneers vs Falcons Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Falcons will cover the spread with 65.2% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Buccaneers players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Buccaneers Player Prop Bets Today

  • Baker Mayfield has hit the TD Passes Over in 12 of his last 19 games (+6.95 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Chase McLaughlin has hit the Field Goals Over in 13 of his last 19 games (+6.90 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Cade Otton has hit the Longest Reception Over in 6 of his last 7 away games (+4.85 Units / 59% ROI)
  • Cade Otton has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 7 of his last 9 away games (+4.80 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Baker Mayfield has hit the Completions Over in 12 of his last 19 games (+4.50 Units / 22% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Falcons players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Falcons Player Prop Best Bets Today

  • Darnell Mooney has hit the Receptions Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+6.70 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Kyle Pitts has hit the Longest Reception Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.55 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Kyle Pitts has hit the Receptions Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.25 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Drake London has hit the Receptions Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.85 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Tyler Allgeier has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 7 of his last 9 games at home (+4.85 Units / 48% ROI)

First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Falcons vs Buccaneers

Player Name 1st TD Odds
Bijan Robinson (Atl) +500
Mike Evans (TB) +700
Bucky Irving (TB) +750

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Falcons vs Buccaneers

Player Name Anytime TD Odds
Bijan Robinson (Atl) -135
Mike Evans (TB) +135

Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Falcons vs Buccaneers

Player Name Over Under
Chris Godwin (TB) 66.5 -115 66.5 -115
Mike Evans (TB) 60.5 -115 60.5 -115
Bijan Robinson (ATL) 25.5 -110 25.5 -120
Rachaad White (TB) 22.5 -115 22.5 -115

Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Falcons vs Buccaneers

Player Name Over Under
Baker Mayfield (TB) 10.5 -115 10.5 -120
Rachaad White (TB) 33.5 -120 33.5 -110
Bijan Robinson (ATL) 63.5 -115 63.5 -115
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have scored last in 10 of their last 13 games (+7.65 Units / 53% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 away games (+7.35 Units / 74% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have covered the 1H Spread in 15 of their last 22 games (+7.15 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have covered the 2Q Spread in 8 of their last 9 away games (+6.90 Units / 65% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have covered the Spread in 14 of their last 22 games (+5.35 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+4.25 Units / 37% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 12 of their last 20 games (+4.15 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+3.70 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Falcons have covered the 4Q Spread in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+3.10 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 4 of their last 10 games at home (+3.05 Units / 23% ROI)

Buccaneers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Buccaneers art 3-1 (+1.9 Units / 43.18% ROI).

  • Buccaneers are 3-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.45 Units / 37.12% ROI
  • Buccaneers are 2-2 when betting the Over for -0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI
  • Buccaneers are 2-2 when betting the Under for -0.2 Units / ROI

Falcons Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Falcons are 1-3 (-2.4 Units / -53.33% ROI).

  • Falcons are 2-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.15 Units / 2.78% ROI
  • Falcons are 1-3 when betting the Over for -2.3 Units / -52.27% ROI
  • Falcons are 3-1 when betting the Under for +1.9 Units / 43.18% ROI

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Keys to the Game vs. the Atlanta Falcons

The Buccaneers are undefeated (6-0) when allowing less than 200 passing yards since the 2023 season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .595.

The Buccaneers are 9-1 (.900) when possessing the ball longer than their opponent since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL. The Falcons has allowed an average time of possession of 31 min and 38 s since the 2023 season — 4th-highest in NFL.

The Buccaneers were winless (0-7) when trailing at the end of the third quarter last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .148.

The Buccaneers are winless (0-6) when committing 2 or more turnovers since the 2023 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .295.

Atlanta Falcons: Keys to the Game vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Falcons were 1-5 (.167) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season — T-2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .440.

The Falcons are 5-1 (.833) when forcing at least one fumble since the 2023 season — T-2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: .615.

The Falcons were 2-7 (.222) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards last season — T-7th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .324.

The Falcons were 4-7 (.364) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities last season — 10th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .430.

Additional Matchup Notes for Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons

Falcons TEs have 70.9 receiving yards per game since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL. The Buccaneers have allowed an average of60.0 receiving yards per game to TEs since the 2023 season — worst in NFL.

The Falcons ran successful plays on 60.0% of rush attempts last week — T-4th-best in NFL. The Buccaneers allowed successful plays on 63.2% of rush attempts last week — T-2nd-worst in NFL.

The Falcons ran successful plays on just 31.6% of pass attempts with motion last week — 4th-worst in NFL. The Buccaneers pressured opposing QBs on 50% of pass attempts against motion last week — 4th-best in NFL.

The Buccaneers have gone three and out on 11.6% of their drives this season — 4th-best in NFL. The Falcons have forced three and outs on 15.4% of opponent drives this season — 5th-worst in NFL.

The Buccaneers went three and out on 0% of their drives last week — T-best in NFL. The Falcons forced three and outs on 0% of opponent drives last week — T-worst in NFL.

The Buccaneers ran 56.2% offensive plays in on their opponent’s side of the field last week — 5th-best in NFL. The Falcons allowed their opponents to run58.6% of plays in their territory last week — 3rd-worst in NFL.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Offense: Important Stats

The Buccaneers have run the ball on 13% of plays (2 carries/15 plays) on 3rd and short this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 55%.

The Buccaneers ran successful plays on 26% of rush attempts in the 3rd quarter last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Buccaneers ran successful plays on 32% of rush attempts against a base front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

The Buccaneers have run successful plays on 32% of rush attempts in the 1st half since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

Atlanta Falcons Offense: Important Stats

The Falcons targeted WRs 39% of the time (209 Pass Attempts/530 plays) last season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 57%.

The Falcons have converted first downs on just 1 of 6 plays (17%) on 3rd and short this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 57%.

The Falcons have started 4 drives inside their own 10 yard line in the 1st half this season — T-most in NFL.

The Falcons committed 6 turnovers in the red zone last season — most in NFL.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Defense: Important Stats

The Buccaneers defense has blitzed on 39% of plays this season — 2nd-highest in NFL; League Avg: 16%.

The Buccaneers defense has allowed a passer rating of just 38.6 with a stacked front (22 Pass Attempts) since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 109.9.

The Buccaneers defense has allowed successful plays on 78% of rush attempts with a base rush since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 56%.

The Buccaneers defense allowed a passer rating of just 25.3 with a stacked front (16 Pass Attempts) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 110.0.

Atlanta Falcons Defense: Important Stats

The Falcons defense has allowed scores on 67% of opponent drives in the 3rd quarter this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 30%.

38% of the plays run against the Falcons have been in the red zone in the 4th quarter this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

30% of the plays run against the Falcons have been in the red zone in the 2nd half this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 15%.

The Falcons defense has allowed successful plays on 65% of plays with a light front this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 40%.

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Our BetMGM editors and authors are sports experts with a wealth of knowledge of the sports industry at all levels. Their coverage includes sports news, previews and predictions, fun facts, and betting.

Our BetMGM editors and authors are sports experts with a wealth of knowledge of the sports industry at all levels. Their coverage includes sports news, previews and predictions, fun facts, and betting.