Buccaneers vs Giants Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 12

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Giants player number 8 holding a NFL game ball.

(AP Photo/Michael Ainsworth)

BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 20, 2024, 11:49 AM

The Buccaneers are -5.5 point favorites vs the Giants
Total (Over/Under): 41.5 points
Watch this game on CBS

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-6-0) visit MetLife Stadium to take on the New York Giants (2-8-0) on Nov. 24. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in East Rutherford, NJ.

The Buccaneers are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -5.5 (-110).

The Buccaneers vs. Giants Over/Under is 41.5 total points for the game.

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Buccaneers vs. Giants Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Buccaneers	-5.5 -110	41.5 -110	-250
Giants	+5.5 -110	41.5 -110	+200

Buccaneers vs. Giants Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Buccaneers will win this game with 68.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Buccaneers vs Giants Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Buccaneers will cover the spread with 64.0% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Buccaneers players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Buccaneers Player Prop Bets Today

Baker Mayfield has hit the TD Passes Over in 14 of his last 19 games (+10.25 Units / 50% ROI)
Bucky Irving has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.50 Units / 46% ROI)
Baker Mayfield has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 7 of his last 9 away games (+4.65 Units / 46% ROI)
Baker Mayfield has hit the Completions Over in 12 of his last 19 games (+4.50 Units / 21% ROI)
Rachaad White has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 6 of his last 8 away games (+3.55 Units / 38% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Giants players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Giants Player Prop Best Bets Today

Darius Slayton has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+7.50 Units / 46% ROI)
Darius Slayton has hit the Receptions Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+6.25 Units / 46% ROI)
Devin Singletary has hit the Carries Under in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+5.75 Units / 58% ROI)
Wan’Dale Robinson has hit the Receptions Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.65 Units / 29% ROI)
Theo Johnson has hit the Receptions Over in his last 5 games (+5.45 Units / 89% ROI)

Buccaneers Best Bets:

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have covered the 2Q Spread in 8 of their last 9 away games (+6.90 Units / 64% ROI)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have covered the 2H Spread in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.23 Units / 31% ROI)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have scored last in their last 5 away games (+5.20 Units / 95% ROI)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have covered the 1Q Spread in 14 of their last 22 games (+5.05 Units / 18% ROI)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have scored first in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.95 Units / 48% ROI)

Giants Best Bets:

The New York Giants have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 16 games (+4.22 Units / 25% ROI)
The New York Giants have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 10 of their last 16 games (+3.25 Units / 18% ROI)
The New York Giants have covered the 2Q Spread in 10 of their last 16 games (+2.80 Units / 15% ROI)
The New York Giants have scored last in 4 of their last 6 games (+2.35 Units / 39% ROI)
The New York Giants have covered the Spread in 6 of their last 10 games at home (+1.70 Units / 16% ROI)

Buccaneers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Buccaneers art 6-4 (+1.6 Units / 14.48% ROI).

Buccaneers are 4-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.55 Units / -11.57% ROI
Buccaneers are 7-3 when betting the Over for +3.7 Units / 33.64% ROI
Buccaneers are 3-7 when betting the Under for -4.7 Units / ROI

Giants Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Giants are 3-7 (-4.65 Units / -42.47% ROI).

Giants are 2-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -5 Units / -41.67% ROI
Giants are 3-7 when betting the Over for -4.75 Units / -42.99% ROI
Giants are 7-3 when betting the Under for +3.7 Units / 33.79% ROI

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Keys to the Game vs. the New York Giants

The Buccaneers are winless (0-11) when trailing at the end of the third quarter since the 2023 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .151.

The Buccaneers were winless (0-7) when rushing less than 25 times last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .276.

The Buccaneers were 1-6 (.143) when losing at least one fumble last season — 4th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .382.

The Buccaneers were 5-2 (.714) when forcing at least one fumble last season — T-9th-best in NFL; League Avg: .618.

New York Giants: Keys to the Game vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Giants were 3-6 (.333) when forcing 2 or more turnovers last season — T-2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .707.

The Giants are winless (0-5) at home this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .516.

The Giants are 4-7 (.364) when forcing 2 or more turnovers since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .707.

The Giants are 3-5 (.375) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .749.

Additional Matchup Notes for Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New York Giants

The Giants have averaged just -0.20 epa per play against a stacked front since the 2023 season — worst in NFL. The Buccaneers have allowed just -0.11 epa per play with a stacked front since the 2023 season — 3rd-best in NFL.

The Giants have run successful plays on just 33.3% of pass attempts against a stacked front since the 2023 season — worst in NFL. The Buccaneers have allowed successful plays on just 40.6% of pass attempts with a stacked front since the 2023 season — 5th-best in NFL.

Giants WRs have averaged 24.2 targets per game this season — 3rd-highest in NFL. The Buccaneers have allowed 13.9 receptions per game to WRs this season — 4th-worst in NFL.

The Buccaneers have run successful plays on 54.2% of pass attempts against a base front this season — 3rd-best in NFL. The Giants have allowed successful plays on 52.3% of pass attempts with a base front this season — 3rd-worst in NFL.

The Buccaneers have run successful plays on 62.5% of pass attempts on play action passes this season — 5th-best in NFL. The Giants have allowed successful plays on 59.4% of pass attempts on play action passes this season — 4th-worst in NFL.

The Buccaneers have run successful plays on 52.6% of pass attempts with motion since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL. The Giants have allowed successful plays on 50.8% of pass attempts against motion since the 2023 season — 4th-worst in NFL.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Offense: Important Stats

The Buccaneers have run successful plays on 52% of pass attempts on passes when their QB has been pressured this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 31%.

The Buccaneers ran successful plays on 26% of rush attempts in the 3rd quarter last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Buccaneers ran successful plays on 32% of rush attempts against a base front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

The Buccaneers have thrown for 24 TDs this season — 3rd-most in NFL.

New York Giants Offense: Important Stats

The Giants averaged -0.26 epa per play against a stacked front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.01.

Giants QBs were sacked 85 times last season — most in NFL.

The Giants have been sacked on 12% of pass attempts (115/983) since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 7%.

The Giants have averaged -0.31 epa per play on play action passes this season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.07.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Defense: Important Stats

The Buccaneers defense allowed a passer rating of just 25.3 with a stacked front (16 Pass Attempts) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 110.0.

The Buccaneers defense has allowed successful plays on 74% of rush attempts with a base rush since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 54%.

The Buccaneers defense allowed an average of 1.4 yards after contact per carry (412 carries) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 1.8.

The Buccaneers defense allowed -0.16 epa per play with a stacked front last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 0.01.

New York Giants Defense: Important Stats

The Giants defense have allowed 0.61 epa per play with a stacked front this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.09.

Offenses facing the Giants targeted TEs 15% of the time (42 Pass Attempts/275 plays) this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 21%.

The Giants defense allowed 6.8 yards per dropback (1,053 yards/156 attempts) when targeted at a depth of 1-5 yards last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: 5.5.

The Giants defense has allowed a passer rating of 158.3 with a stacked front (5 Pass Attempts) this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: 109.9.

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