Buccaneers vs Lions Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets โ€“ NFC Divisional Playoffs

5 NFL Betting Systems for the 2023-24 Season
(AP Photo/Duane Burleson)
  • The Lions are -6 point favorites vs the Buccaneers
  • Total (Over/Under): 48.5 points
  • Watch this NFC Divisional Playoff game on NBC

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (12-6) visit Ford Field to take on the Detroit Lions (12-6) on Jan. 21. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:00pm EST in Detroit, MI.

The Lions are betting favorites in this playoff matchup, with the spread sitting at -6 (-110).

The Buccaneers vs. Lions Over/Under is 49.5 total points for the game.

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Buccaneers vs. Lions Odds, Spread, Over/Under

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Buccaneers+6 -11049.5 -110+220
Lions -6 -11049.5 -110-275

Buccaneers vs. Lions Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Lions will win this playoff game game with 72.5% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Buccaneers vs Lions Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Lions will cover the spread with 76.5% confidence.


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Best Buccaneers Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Buccaneers players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Baker Mayfield has hit the TD Passes Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+8.25 Units / 68% ROI)
  • Rachaad White has hit the Carries Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+7.65 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Rachaad White has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 13 of his last 19 games (+6.45 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Baker Mayfield has hit the Completions Over in his last 5 games (+5.05 Units / 94% ROI)
  • Trey Palmer has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 77% ROI)

Best Lions Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Lions players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jahmyr Gibbs has hit the Longest Rush Over in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Jared Goff has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 13 of his last 16 games (+9.15 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Jahmyr Gibbs has hit the Longest Reception Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 74% ROI)
  • Jahmyr Gibbs has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 74% ROI)
  • Jared Goff has hit the Passing Yards Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.75 Units / 47% ROI)

First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Lions vs Buccaneers

Player Name 1st TD Odds
Jahmyr Gibbs +550
David Montgomery +550
Amon-Ra St. Brown +700
Rachaad White +750
Sam LaPorta +800

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Lions vs Buccaneers

Player Name Anytime TD Odds
David Montgomery -115
Jahmyr Gibbs -115
Rachaad White -110
Mike Evans +100
Amon-Ra St. Brown +100

Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Lions vs Buccaneers

Player Name Over Under
Jahmyr Gibbs 23.5 -115 23.5 -115
Rachaad White 21.5 -120 21.5 -110
Amon-Ra St. Brown 90.5 -115 90.5 -115
Josh Reynolds 40.5 -110 40.5 -120
Trey Palmer 18.5 -110 18.5 -120

Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Lions vs Buccaneers

Player Name Over Under
Baker Mayfield 8.5 -110 8.5 -120
Rachaad White 53.5 -110 53.5 -120
David Montgomery 56.5 -110 56.5 -120
Jared Goff 0.5 -110 0.5 -120
Jahmyr Gibbs 48.5 -120 48.5 -110
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have scored last in 14 of their last 19 games (+9.25 Units / 44% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have covered the Spread in 9 of their last 10 away games (+7.95 Units / 73% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 away games (+6.80 Units / 76% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 2H Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 away games (+6.10 Units / 62% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have covered the 2Q Spread in their last 6 away games (+6.00 Units / 82% ROI)
  • The Detroit Lions have hit the 1H Moneyline in 14 of their last 18 games (+8.65 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Detroit Lions have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 9 of their last 10 games (+8.00 Units / 65% ROI)
  • The Detroit Lions have covered the 1H Spread in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.60 Units / 43% ROI)
  • The Detroit Lions have covered the Spread in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.50 Units / 38% ROI)
  • The Detroit Lions have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+6.00 Units / 50% ROI)

Buccaneers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Buccaneers went 12-6 (+5.5 Units / 27.99% ROI).

  • Buccaneers are 10-8 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.8 Units / 17.23% ROI
  • Buccaneers are 6-12 when betting the Over for -7.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
  • Buccaneers are 12-6 when betting the Under for +5.4 Units / ROI

Lions Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Lions went 12-5 (+6.5 Units / 34.67% ROI).

  • Lions are 12-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.9 Units / 8.01% ROI
  • Lions are 11-6 when betting the Over for +4.4 Units / 23.53% ROI
  • Lions are 6-11 when betting the Under for -6.1 Units / -32.62% ROI

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Keys to the Game vs. the Detroit Lions

The Buccaneers are winless (0-7) when trailing at the end of the third quarter this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .148.

The Buccaneers are 3-1 (.750) when playing in cold weather this season — best in NFL; League Avg: .500.

The Buccaneers are 8-1 (.889) when leading at the end of the first half this season — 8th-best in NFL; League Avg: .783.

The Buccaneers are 3-2 (.600) when within 7 points entering the 4th quarter this season — T-9th-best in NFL; League Avg: .500.

Detroit Lions: Keys to the Game vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Lions are undefeated (5-0) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .577.

The Lions are 3-2 (.600) when rushing less than 25 times this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: .276.

The Lions are undefeated (5-0) after a loss this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .488.

The Lions are 4-2 (.667) vs top 10 pass defenses this season — T-6th-best in NFL; League Avg: .488.

Additional Matchup Notes for Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Detroit Lions

The Lions have thrown for 4,606 passing yards in 17 games (270.9 YPG) this season — 4th-best in NFL. The Buccaneers have allowed 248.9 passing yards per game this season — 4th-worst in NFL.

Lions WRs have 180.1 receiving yards per game this season — 5th-best in NFL. The Buccaneers have averaged 178.6 receiving yards per game allowed to WRs this season — 4th-worst in NFL.

The Lions have thrown the ball 10 yards or less 73.3% of pass attempts this season — T-5th-highest in NFL. The Buccaneers have allowed 6.6 yards per dropback on pass attempts between 1 and 10 yards this season — 3rd-worst in NFL.

The Buccaneers ran successful plays on 60.0% of pass attempts on their opponent’s side of the field last week — T-4th-best in NFL. Lions allowed successful plays on 62.5% of pass attempts on their own side of the field last week — 3rd-worst in NFL.

The Buccaneers are averaging just 3.4 yards per carry this season — worst in NFL. The Lions have allowed just 3.8 yards per carry this season — 3rd-best in NFL.

Buccaneers RBs have averaged just 72.4 rushing yards per game this season — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Lions have allowed an average of just 89.1 rushing yards per game this season — 2nd-best in NFL.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Offense: Important Stats

The Buccaneers ran successful plays on 0% of rush attempts in the 2nd half in Week 18 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Buccaneers have run successful plays on 26% of rush attempts in the 3rd quarter this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Buccaneers ran successful plays on 0% of plays in the 3rd quarter in Week 18 — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

The Buccaneers have run successful plays on 33% of rush attempts this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

Detroit Lions Offense: Important Stats

The Lions have converted first downs on 103 of 320 plays (32%) in the 4th quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 26%.

The Lions have run successful plays on 56% of pass attempts in the 4th quarter this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Lions have run successful plays on 48% of plays in the 4th quarter this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 40%.

The Lions have started 8 drives inside their own 10 yard line this season — fewest in NFL.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Defense: Important Stats

The Buccaneers defense has not allowed a successful play on any rush attempt in close and late situations since the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 48%.

Offenses facing the Buccaneers targeted RBs 13% of the time (80 Pass Attempts/611 plays) this season — 2nd-lowest in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

The Buccaneers defense has allowed an average of 1.3 yards after contact per carry (412 carries) this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 1.7.

35% of the plays ran against the Buccaneers were in the red zone in the 3rd quarter in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 13%.

Detroit Lions Defense: Important Stats

The Lions defense has allowed first downs on 50% of rush attempts on 3rd and short this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 66%.

The Lions defense has averaged a sack every 38.5 pass attempts (77 Pass Attempts/2 Sacks) in the red zone this season — 2nd-worst attempts per sack rate in NFL; League Avg: 14.9.

The Lions defense did not force a three and out in Week 18 — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: 25%.

The Lions defense has allowed 89.4 yards from scrimmage per game to RBs this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 121.7.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.