- The Lions are -6 point favorites vs the Buccaneers
- Total (Over/Under): 48.5 points
- Watch this NFC Divisional Playoff game on NBC
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (12-6) visit Ford Field to take on the Detroit Lions (12-6) on Jan. 21. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:00pm EST in Detroit, MI.
The Lions are betting favorites in this playoff matchup, with the spread sitting at -6 (-110).
The Buccaneers vs. Lions Over/Under is 49.5 total points for the game.
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Buccaneers vs. Lions Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Buccaneers | +6 -110 | 49.5 -110 | +220 |
| Lions | -6 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -275 |
Buccaneers vs. Lions Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Lions will win this playoff game game with 72.5% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Buccaneers vs Lions Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Lions will cover the spread with 76.5% confidence.
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Best Buccaneers Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Buccaneers players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Baker Mayfield has hit the TD Passes Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+8.25 Units / 68% ROI)
- Rachaad White has hit the Carries Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+7.65 Units / 37% ROI)
- Rachaad White has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 13 of his last 19 games (+6.45 Units / 31% ROI)
- Baker Mayfield has hit the Completions Over in his last 5 games (+5.05 Units / 94% ROI)
- Trey Palmer has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 77% ROI)
Best Lions Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Lions players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jahmyr Gibbs has hit the Longest Rush Over in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Jared Goff has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 13 of his last 16 games (+9.15 Units / 44% ROI)
- Jahmyr Gibbs has hit the Longest Reception Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 74% ROI)
- Jahmyr Gibbs has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 74% ROI)
- Jared Goff has hit the Passing Yards Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.75 Units / 47% ROI)
First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Lions vs Buccaneers
| Player Name | 1st TD Odds |
|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | +550 |
| David Montgomery | +550 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | +700 |
| Rachaad White | +750 |
| Sam LaPorta | +800 |
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Lions vs Buccaneers
| Player Name | Anytime TD Odds |
|---|---|
| David Montgomery | -115 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | -115 |
| Rachaad White | -110 |
| Mike Evans | +100 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | +100 |
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Lions vs Buccaneers
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 23.5 -115 | 23.5 -115 |
| Rachaad White | 21.5 -120 | 21.5 -110 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 90.5 -115 | 90.5 -115 |
| Josh Reynolds | 40.5 -110 | 40.5 -120 |
| Trey Palmer | 18.5 -110 | 18.5 -120 |
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Lions vs Buccaneers
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 8.5 -110 | 8.5 -120 |
| Rachaad White | 53.5 -110 | 53.5 -120 |
| David Montgomery | 56.5 -110 | 56.5 -120 |
| Jared Goff | 0.5 -110 | 0.5 -120 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 48.5 -120 | 48.5 -110 |
Buccaneers Best Bets:
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have scored last in 14 of their last 19 games (+9.25 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have covered the Spread in 9 of their last 10 away games (+7.95 Units / 73% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 away games (+6.80 Units / 76% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 2H Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 away games (+6.10 Units / 62% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have covered the 2Q Spread in their last 6 away games (+6.00 Units / 82% ROI)
Lions Best Bets:
- The Detroit Lions have hit the 1H Moneyline in 14 of their last 18 games (+8.65 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Detroit Lions have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 9 of their last 10 games (+8.00 Units / 65% ROI)
- The Detroit Lions have covered the 1H Spread in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.60 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Detroit Lions have covered the Spread in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.50 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Detroit Lions have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+6.00 Units / 50% ROI)
Buccaneers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Buccaneers went 12-6 (+5.5 Units / 27.99% ROI).
- Buccaneers are 10-8 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.8 Units / 17.23% ROI
- Buccaneers are 6-12 when betting the Over for -7.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
- Buccaneers are 12-6 when betting the Under for +5.4 Units / ROI
Lions Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Lions went 12-5 (+6.5 Units / 34.67% ROI).
- Lions are 12-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.9 Units / 8.01% ROI
- Lions are 11-6 when betting the Over for +4.4 Units / 23.53% ROI
- Lions are 6-11 when betting the Under for -6.1 Units / -32.62% ROI
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Keys to the Game vs. the Detroit Lions
The Buccaneers are winless (0-7) when trailing at the end of the third quarter this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .148.
The Buccaneers are 3-1 (.750) when playing in cold weather this season — best in NFL; League Avg: .500.
The Buccaneers are 8-1 (.889) when leading at the end of the first half this season — 8th-best in NFL; League Avg: .783.
The Buccaneers are 3-2 (.600) when within 7 points entering the 4th quarter this season — T-9th-best in NFL; League Avg: .500.
Detroit Lions: Keys to the Game vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Lions are undefeated (5-0) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .577.
The Lions are 3-2 (.600) when rushing less than 25 times this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: .276.
The Lions are undefeated (5-0) after a loss this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .488.
The Lions are 4-2 (.667) vs top 10 pass defenses this season — T-6th-best in NFL; League Avg: .488.
Additional Matchup Notes for Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Detroit Lions
The Lions have thrown for 4,606 passing yards in 17 games (270.9 YPG) this season — 4th-best in NFL. The Buccaneers have allowed 248.9 passing yards per game this season — 4th-worst in NFL.
Lions WRs have 180.1 receiving yards per game this season — 5th-best in NFL. The Buccaneers have averaged 178.6 receiving yards per game allowed to WRs this season — 4th-worst in NFL.
The Lions have thrown the ball 10 yards or less 73.3% of pass attempts this season — T-5th-highest in NFL. The Buccaneers have allowed 6.6 yards per dropback on pass attempts between 1 and 10 yards this season — 3rd-worst in NFL.
The Buccaneers ran successful plays on 60.0% of pass attempts on their opponent’s side of the field last week — T-4th-best in NFL. Lions allowed successful plays on 62.5% of pass attempts on their own side of the field last week — 3rd-worst in NFL.
The Buccaneers are averaging just 3.4 yards per carry this season — worst in NFL. The Lions have allowed just 3.8 yards per carry this season — 3rd-best in NFL.
Buccaneers RBs have averaged just 72.4 rushing yards per game this season — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Lions have allowed an average of just 89.1 rushing yards per game this season — 2nd-best in NFL.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Offense: Important Stats
The Buccaneers ran successful plays on 0% of rush attempts in the 2nd half in Week 18 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.
The Buccaneers have run successful plays on 26% of rush attempts in the 3rd quarter this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.
The Buccaneers ran successful plays on 0% of plays in the 3rd quarter in Week 18 — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: 44%.
The Buccaneers have run successful plays on 33% of rush attempts this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.
Detroit Lions Offense: Important Stats
The Lions have converted first downs on 103 of 320 plays (32%) in the 4th quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 26%.
The Lions have run successful plays on 56% of pass attempts in the 4th quarter this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.
The Lions have run successful plays on 48% of plays in the 4th quarter this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 40%.
The Lions have started 8 drives inside their own 10 yard line this season — fewest in NFL.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Defense: Important Stats
The Buccaneers defense has not allowed a successful play on any rush attempt in close and late situations since the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 48%.
Offenses facing the Buccaneers targeted RBs 13% of the time (80 Pass Attempts/611 plays) this season — 2nd-lowest in NFL; League Avg: 17%.
The Buccaneers defense has allowed an average of 1.3 yards after contact per carry (412 carries) this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 1.7.
35% of the plays ran against the Buccaneers were in the red zone in the 3rd quarter in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 13%.
Detroit Lions Defense: Important Stats
The Lions defense has allowed first downs on 50% of rush attempts on 3rd and short this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 66%.
The Lions defense has averaged a sack every 38.5 pass attempts (77 Pass Attempts/2 Sacks) in the red zone this season — 2nd-worst attempts per sack rate in NFL; League Avg: 14.9.
The Lions defense did not force a three and out in Week 18 — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: 25%.
The Lions defense has allowed 89.4 yards from scrimmage per game to RBs this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 121.7.
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