Buccaneers vs Panthers Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 13

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Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young passes against the New Orleans Saints during the first half of an NFL football game Monday, Sept. 18, 2023, in Charlotte, N.C.

(Rusty Jones/AP Photo)

BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 26, 2024, 12:47 PM

The Buccaneers are -6 point favorites vs the Panthers
Total (Over/Under): 46.5 points
Watch this game on FOX

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-6-0) visit Bank of America Stadium to take on the Carolina Panthers (3-8-0) on Dec. 1. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:05pm EST in Charlotte, NC.

The Buccaneers are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -6 (-110).

The Buccaneers vs. Panthers Over/Under is 46.5 total points for the game.

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Buccaneers vs. Panthers Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Buccaneers	-6 -110	46.5 -110	-275
Panthers	+6 -110	46.5 -110	+210

Buccaneers vs. Panthers Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Buccaneers will win this game with 79.8% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Buccaneers vs Panthers Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Panthers will cover the spread with 53.4% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Buccaneers players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Buccaneers Player Prop Bets Today

Baker Mayfield has hit the TD Passes Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+9.05 Units / 42% ROI)
Bucky Irving has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.50 Units / 49% ROI)
Baker Mayfield has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 8 of his last 10 away games (+5.65 Units / 50% ROI)
Baker Mayfield has hit the Completions Over in 13 of his last 20 games (+5.50 Units / 25% ROI)
Bucky Irving has hit the Receptions Over in his last 5 games (+5.15 Units / 86% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Panthers players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Panthers Player Prop Best Bets Today

Chuba Hubbard has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+6.80 Units / 66% ROI)
Adam Thielen has hit the Receptions Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.75 Units / 43% ROI)
Bryce Young has hit the Passing Yards Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.50 Units / 40% ROI)
Miles Sanders has hit the Carries Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.30 Units / 38% ROI)
Bryce Young has hit the TD Passes Under in 8 of his last 13 games (+5.55 Units / 42% ROI)

Buccaneers Best Bets:

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have covered the 2Q Spread in 9 of their last 10 away games (+7.90 Units / 66% ROI)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 10 away games (+5.40 Units / 43% ROI)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.40 Units / 23% ROI)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have covered the 2H Spread in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.21 Units / 25% ROI)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have scored last in their last 5 away games (+5.20 Units / 95% ROI)

Panthers Best Bets:

The Carolina Panthers have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 14 of their last 18 games (+9.85 Units / 50% ROI)
The Carolina Panthers have covered the 3Q Spread in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.25 Units / 32% ROI)
The Carolina Panthers have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 13 of their last 18 games (+6.50 Units / 29% ROI)
The Carolina Panthers have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.40 Units / 24% ROI)
The Carolina Panthers have hit the 2H Moneyline in 4 of their last 8 games at home (+3.20 Units / 40% ROI)

Buccaneers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Buccaneers art 7-4 (+2.6 Units / 21.4% ROI).

Buccaneers are 5-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.55 Units / -3.42% ROI
Buccaneers are 7-4 when betting the Over for +2.6 Units / 21.49% ROI
Buccaneers are 4-7 when betting the Under for -3.7 Units / ROI

Panthers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Panthers are 4-7 (-3.6 Units / -30.25% ROI).

Panthers are 3-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.65 Units / -5.91% ROI
Panthers are 8-3 when betting the Over for +4.7 Units / 38.84% ROI
Panthers are 3-8 when betting the Under for -5.8 Units / -47.93% ROI

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Keys to the Game vs. the Carolina Panthers

The Buccaneers were 8-1 (.889) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times last season — best in NFL; League Avg: .583.

The Buccaneers were 1-6 (.143) when losing at least one fumble last season — 4th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .382.

The Buccaneers are 1-4 (.200) when within 7 points at the two minute warning this season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.

The Buccaneers are 5-2 (.714) when making 5 or more explosive passes in a game this season — 9th-best in NFL; League Avg: .587.

Carolina Panthers: Keys to the Game vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Panthers are 1-5 (.167) when sacking the QB 3 or more times since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .658.

The Panthers were winless (0-4) when sacking the QB 3 or more times last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .650.

The Panthers were 1-13 (.071) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .495.

The Panthers were 1-10 (.091) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.

Additional Matchup Notes for Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Carolina Panthers

The Panthers have averaged just -0.10 epa per play against a stacked front since the 2023 season — T-5th-worst in NFL. The Buccaneers have allowed just -0.11 epa per play with a stacked front since the 2023 season — T-3rd-best in NFL.

The Panthers have thrown the ball 55.2% of the time in the red zone this season — 4th-highest in NFL. The Buccaneers have allowed a completion rate of 67.4% when defending in the red zone this season — 3rd-worst in NFL.

The Panthers are averaging 5.3 yards per carry on rushes to the left side of the field this season — 5th-best in NFL. The Buccaneers have allowed 6.0 yards per carry when defending on rushes to the left this season — T-2nd-worst in NFL.

The Buccaneers have averaged 0.16 epa per play against a stacked front since the 2023 season — 5th-best in NFL. The Panthers have allowed 0.15 epa per play with a stacked front since the 2023 season — 5th-worst in NFL.

The Buccaneers have been successful on 47.9% of plays they have run this season — 4th-best in NFL. The Panthers have allowed their opponents to be successful on 48.7% of plays this season — worst in NFL.

The Buccaneers have been successful on 52.1% of plays they have run against a base rush this season — best in NFL. The Panthers have allowed their opponents to be successful on 48.5% of plays with a base rush this season — 2nd-worst in NFL.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Offense: Important Stats

The Buccaneers have run successful plays on 52% of pass attempts on passes when their QB has been pressured this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 31%.

The Buccaneers rushed for 4 TDs in Week 12 — most in NFL.

The Buccaneers ran successful plays on 26% of rush attempts in the 3rd quarter last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Buccaneers have run successful plays on 67% of pass attempts on passes when their QB has been pressured since Week 9 — best in NFL; League Avg: 32%.

Carolina Panthers Offense: Important Stats

The Panthers have averaged -0.42 epa per play on play action passes this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.08.

The Panthers have run successful plays on 38% of pass attempts against a base front since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

The Panthers have run successful plays on 40% of plays on first read passes this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 51%.

The Panthers have averaged -0.30 epa per play on play action passes since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.08.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Defense: Important Stats

The Buccaneers defense has allowed successful plays on 74% of rush attempts with a base rush this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 51%.

The Buccaneers defense allowed a passer rating of just 25.3 with a stacked front (16 Pass Attempts) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 110.0.

The Buccaneers defense has allowed successful plays on 74% of rush attempts with a base rush since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 54%.

The Buccaneers defense allowed successful plays on 75% of rush attempts with a base rush last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 57%.

Carolina Panthers Defense: Important Stats

The Panthers defense has allowed successful plays on 60% of rush attempts in the 1st half this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Panthers defense has allowed successful plays on 10% of pass attempts with a heavy rush this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

18% of the plays run against the Panthers have been in the red zone since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 14%.

The Panthers defense has allowed successful plays on 9% of plays with a heavy rush this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

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