- The Buccaneers are an 8-point home favorite against the Panthers.
- The Panthers have lost each of their last 10 road games against NFC opponents.
- My Buccaneers vs. Panthers prediction is to use Tampa Bay in a teaser.
Now needing help from the Falcons to win the division, Tampa Bay returns from a SNF defeat for a home game against Carolina.
The Buccaneers fell 26-24 as road favorites in Dallas on Sunday, snapping a four-game winning streak. Pair that result with Atlanta’s win, and the Bucs now sit second in the NFC South.
Carolina captured an outright win and cover in overtime against the Cardinals on Sunday, ending a four-game losing streak. Now, the Panthers will see their first road win since Week 3.
Bet on Buccaneers vs. Panthers and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.
NFL Week 17 Odds: Buccaneers vs. Panthers
Buccaneers vs. Panthers Prediction
Based on Carolina’s weak road record and the lack of results for dogs off an outright win, my Buccaneers vs. Panthers prediction is to tease Tampa Bay (-2).
History tells us that teams rarely pull off consecutive outright wins as big underdogs.
Since 2003, dogs off a win at +5 or higher by 13 or fewer points that are +5 or higher again are 16-117-1 SU, including 8-82 away from home.
Those teams also struggle to cover the spread.
A bettor fading underdogs in non-neutral site games in contests 4-16 is 60-14-2 ATS (81.1%), assuming three factors:
- The dog’s spread falls between +5.5 and +10
- The underdog’s spread in the previous game falls between +5 and +8.5
- The underdog’s previous game margin falls between +1 and +28
That ATS system, however, generally works better when the favorite is coming off a win. Plus, Baker Mayfield is a dismal 18-29-1 ATS as a market favorite in his career.
As a result, teasing the Bucs down through three key numbers feels safer on Sunday.
Irrespective of those trends, the Bucs have generally performed well SU as a market favorite this season.
Sunday’s game marks only the eighth time the Buccaneers will be a market favorite this year. In the seven prior contests, Mayfield is 5-2 SU, including 4-1 against the NFC.
Tampa Bay has also excelled this season against the league’s worst teams.
It’s a small sample given the difficulty of their schedule, but the Bucs have played three games against teams 24th or worse in total DVOA.
Tampa Bay is 3-0 SU in those three contests, with two wins by multiple scores. As a result, tease the Bucs down and take them to avenge their loss on Sunday night.
Betting Buccaneers vs. Panthers: NFL Public Betting
Check back on Friday for Buccaneers vs. Panthers public betting data and insights.
