- The Buccaneers are a 14.5-point home favorite against the Saints.
- The Saints have covered the spread in 11 straight as dogs on the East Coast.
- My Buccaneers vs. Saints prediction depends on Alvin Kamara’s status.
With a win on Sunday, Tampa Bay clinches their fourth straight division title and a home playoff game.
Tampa Bay obliterated Carolina 48-14 on Sunday, avenging a 26-24 loss at Dallas the prior week. Pair it with a Falcons loss, and the Bucs now control their destiny to reach the postseason.
New Orleans fell 25-10 as home dogs to the Raiders on Sunday, their second straight defeat by at least 14 points. In the last meeting with Tampa Bay, New Orleans fell 51-27.
Bet on Buccaneers vs. Saints and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.
NFL Week 18 Odds: Buccaneers vs. Saints
Buccaneers vs. Saints Prediction
If Alvin Kamara doesn’t play for the Saints on Sunday, my Buccaneers vs. Saints prediction is the Buccaneers Spread (-14.5, -110).
Tampa Bay’s offense should move the ball at will against a weak New Orleans defense.
Entering Sunday’s game, Tampa Bay ranks sixth in offensive DVOA while New Orleans ranks 23rd in defensive DVOA, per ftnfantasy.com.
In the last head-to-head meeting, the Bucs blitzed New Orleans for 594 yards of offense, their best output of the season.
That game also featured a 27-0 second half win for the Buccaneers.
While it’s slightly concerning backing a team that blew out a divisional opponent in the last meeting, it’s questionable how New Orleans moves the ball without Kamara.
Since Week 16, the Saints rank 32nd in offensive EPA per play and 31st in offensive success rate, per rbsdm.com.
Under interim head coach Darren Rizzi, New Orleans has played two games against teams 10th or better in total DVOA.
New Orleans stayed within this number as home dogs against Washington, but they fell 34-0 at Green Bay.
Plus, Baker Mayfield has shown an ability to blow teams out at home this season.
The Tampa signal-caller is 3-1 SU as a home favorite this year, with those victories coming by 34, 15 and 17 points.
History also tells us backing big favorites late is a profitable venture.
Since 2003, January favorites at -13 or higher are 10-5-1 ATS, including 7-3-1 at home.
Wait for news on Kamara before taking a side here, but it’s the Bucs or nothing on Sunday.
Betting Buccaneers vs. Saints: NFL Public Betting
Check back on Friday for Buccaneers vs. Saints public betting data and insights.
