Cardinals vs Dolphins Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 8

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(AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)

BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 24, 2024, 4:16 PM

The Dolphins are -3.5 point favorites vs the Cardinals
Total (Over/Under): 46.5 points
Watch this game on FOX

The Arizona Cardinals (3-4-0) visit Hard Rock Stadium to take on the Miami Dolphins (2-4-0) on Oct. 27. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in Miami Gardens, FL.

The Dolphins are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-110).

The Cardinals vs. Dolphins Over/Under is 46 total points for the game.

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Cardinals vs. Dolphins Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Cardinals	+3.5 -110	46 -110	+155
Dolphins	-3.5 -110	46 -110	-190

Cardinals vs. Dolphins Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Dolphins will win this game with 69.2% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Cardinals vs Dolphins Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Cardinals will cover the spread with 55.0% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Cardinals players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Cardinals Player Prop Bets Today

Marvin Harrison Jr. has hit the Receptions Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 79% ROI)
James Conner has hit the Longest Rush Over in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 85% ROI)
Chris Moore has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.85 Units / 58% ROI)
Kyler Murray has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+4.45 Units / 27% ROI)
James Conner has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+4.25 Units / 24% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Dolphins players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Dolphins Player Prop Best Bets Today

Braxton Berrios has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.75 Units / 67% ROI)
Durham Smythe has hit the Receptions Over in his last 9 games (+9.55 Units / 83% ROI)
Raheem Mostert has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.60 Units / 47% ROI)
Durham Smythe has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 6 games at home (+6.10 Units / 88% ROI)
Braxton Berrios has hit the Longest Reception Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Dolphins vs Cardinals

Player Name	Over	Under
Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI)	47.5 -120	47.5 -110
Jaylen Waddle (MIA)	52.5 -110	52.5 -120
Tyreek Hill (MIA)	83.5 -115	83.5 -115

Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Dolphins vs Cardinals

Player Name	Over	Under
Raheem Mostert (MIA)	36.5 -115	36.5 -120

Cardinals Best Bets:

The Arizona Cardinals have hit the 2H Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games (+7.10 Units / 89% ROI)
The Arizona Cardinals have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 16 games (+4.15 Units / 25% ROI)
The Arizona Cardinals have covered the 2H Spread in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.70 Units / 42% ROI)
The Arizona Cardinals have scored last in 6 of their last 10 games (+3.50 Units / 34% ROI)
The Arizona Cardinals have covered the 4Q Spread in 10 of their last 16 games (+3.00 Units / 16% ROI)

Dolphins Best Bets:

The Miami Dolphins have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.15 Units / 28% ROI)
The Miami Dolphins have covered the 3Q Spread in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+3.20 Units / 32% ROI)
The Miami Dolphins have covered the 2Q Spread in 10 of their last 16 games (+3.05 Units / 16% ROI)
The Miami Dolphins have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 10 of their last 16 games (+2.80 Units / 15% ROI)
The Miami Dolphins have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 9 games at home (+2.50 Units / 15% ROI)

Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Cardinals art 4-3 (+0.6 Units / 7.59% ROI).

Cardinals are 3-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.1 Units / 1.27% ROI
Cardinals are 3-3 when betting the Over for -0.3 Units / -3.9% ROI
Cardinals are 3-3 when betting the Under for -0.3 Units / ROI

Dolphins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Dolphins are 1-5 (-4.7 Units / -67.63% ROI).

Dolphins are 2-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.95 Units / -36.42% ROI
Dolphins are 1-5 when betting the Over for -4.5 Units / -68.18% ROI
Dolphins are 5-1 when betting the Under for +3.9 Units / 59.09% ROI

Arizona Cardinals: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Dolphins

The Cardinals were winless (0-3) when forcing 2 or more turnovers last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .707.

The Cardinals were 1-6 (.143) when sacking the QB 3 or more times last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .650.

The Cardinals were winless (0-10) when scoring less than 22 points last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .253.

The Cardinals were 1-12 (.077) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .430.

Miami Dolphins: Keys to the Game vs. the Arizona Cardinals

The Dolphins are 9-3 (.750) when possessing the ball longer than their opponent since the 2023 season — 10th-best in NFL. The Cardinals has allowed an average time of possession of 31 min and 2 s since the 2023 season — 5th-highest in NFL.

The Dolphins are winless (0-5) vs top 10 run offenses since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .408.

The Dolphins were 3-1 (.750) when not forcing a turnover last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .265.

The Dolphins are winless (0-5) vs top 10 run offenses since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .408.

Additional Matchup Notes for Arizona Cardinals vs. Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins have been successful on 54.4% of plays they have ran on play action passes since the 2023 season — 5th-best in NFL. The Cardinals have allowed their opponents to be successful on 54.1% of plays on play action passes since the 2023 season — worst in NFL.

Dolphins RBs have averaged 121.9 rushing yards per game since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL. The Cardinals have allowed an average of 142.8 rushing yards per game since the 2023 season — worst in NFL.

The Cardinals have averaged just -0.48 epa per play against a heavy rush since the 2023 season — T-worst in NFL. The Dolphins have allowed just -0.50 epa per play with a heavy rush since the 2023 season — 3rd-best in NFL.

The Cardinals have been successful on 47.1% of plays they have ran against a light rush since the 2023 season — 4th-best in NFL. The Dolphins have allowed their opponents to be successful on 50.0% of plays with a light rush since the 2023 season — T-4th-worst in NFL.

The Cardinals have run successful plays on just 27.5% of pass attempts against a heavy rush since the 2023 season — worst in NFL. The Dolphins have pressured opposing QBs on 47.1% of pass attempts with a heavy rush since the 2023 season — 4th-best in NFL.

Arizona Cardinals Offense: Important Stats

The Cardinals have rushed for 20+ yards 33 times since the 2023 season — T-most in NFL.

The Cardinals went for two on 36% of PATs last season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 10%.

The Cardinals have rushed for 20+ yards 33 times since the 2023 season — T-most in NFL.

The Cardinals had 23 rushes of 20+ yards last season — most in NFL.

Miami Dolphins Offense: Important Stats

The Dolphins scored 8 TDs from their own territory last season — most in NFL.

The Dolphins had 19 TDs that were 20+ yards last season — most in NFL.

The Dolphins are averaging 11.7 drives per TD this season — worst Drives Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 4.8.

The Dolphins have turned the ball over on downs 13 times this season — most in NFL.

Arizona Cardinals Defense: Important Stats

19% of the plays ran against the Cardinals were in the red zone last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 14%.

The Cardinals defense has allowed a passer rating of just 0.0 with a stacked front (0 Pass Attempts) this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 115.1.

The Cardinals defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 44% on third and 10+ yards to go this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

The Cardinals defense has allowed successful plays on 65% of pass attempts from their own territory this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 47%.

Miami Dolphins Defense: Important Stats

The Dolphins defense have allowed -0.79 epa per play on contested throws this season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.11.

The Dolphins defense has allowed an average of 8.6 fantasy points per game to QBs this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 15.9.

The Dolphins defense have forced three and outs on 34% of opponent drives this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 21%.

The Dolphins defense has allowed 9 of 12 (75%) TDs on the ground this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

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