Chargers vs Steelers Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets โ€“ NFL, Week 3

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Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver George Pickens (14) runs the ball in front of Seattle Seahawks safety Julian Love, back, during the first half of an NFL football game Sunday, Dec. 31, 2023, in Seattle. The Steelers won 30-23. (AP Photo/Lindsey Wasson)
(AP Photo/Lindsey Wasson)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 18, 2024, 4:04 PM
  • The Steelers are -1.5 point favorites vs the Chargers
  • Total (Over/Under): 35.5 points
  • Watch this game on CBS

The Los Angeles Chargers (2-0-0) visit Acrisure Stadium to take on the Pittsburgh Steelers (2-0-0) on Sep. 22. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in Pittsburgh, PA.

The Steelers are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -1.5 (-110).

The Chargers vs. Steelers Over/Under is 35.5 total points for the game.

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Chargers vs. Steelers Odds, Spread, Over/Under

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Chargers+1.5 -11035.5 -110+105
Steelers -1.5 -11035.5 -110-125

Chargers vs. Steelers Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Steelers will win this game with 55.3% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Chargers vs Steelers Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Steelers will cover the spread with 65.0% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Chargers players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Chargers Player Prop Bets Today

  • D.J. Chark has hit the Longest Reception Over in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.85 Units / 72% ROI)
  • Hayden Hurst has hit the Receptions Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.80 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Hayden Hurst has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.60 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Josh Palmer has hit the Longest Reception Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.80 Units / 58% ROI)
  • Justin Herbert has hit the Passing Yards Under in 9 of his last 13 games (+4.15 Units / 26% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Steelers players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Steelers Player Prop Best Bets Today

  • Jaylen Warren has hit the Receptions Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+8.15 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Justin Fields has hit the TD Passes Under in 8 of his last 11 games (+6.05 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Russell Wilson has hit the Interceptions Under in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 66% ROI)
  • George Pickens has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 13 of his last 19 games (+5.80 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Najee Harris has hit the Carries Over in 13 of his last 19 games (+5.65 Units / 26% ROI)

Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Steelers vs Chargers

Player Name Over Under
George Pickens (PIT) 47.5 -115 47.5 -115

Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Steelers vs Chargers

Player Name Over Under
Najee Harris (PIT) 53.5 -110 53.5 -120
  • The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 13 of their last 17 games (+8.90 Units / 44% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 8 away games (+3.95 Units / 44% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 8 away games (+3.75 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 2H Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+3.45 Units / 61% ROI)
  • The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 9 away games (+3.25 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers have covered the 2H Spread in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.40 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers have scored last in 7 of their last 8 games at home (+5.95 Units / 62% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers have covered the 4Q Spread in 13 of their last 19 games (+5.70 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+5.10 Units / 49% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers have scored first in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.60 Units / 29% ROI)

Chargers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Chargers art 2-0 (+2 Units / 95.24% ROI).

  • Chargers are 2-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +2 Units / 53.33% ROI
  • Chargers are 0-2 when betting the Over for -2.2 Units / -100% ROI
  • Chargers are 2-0 when betting the Under for +2 Units / ROI

Steelers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Steelers are 2-0 (+2 Units / 88.89% ROI).

  • Steelers are 2-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.65 Units / 106% ROI
  • Steelers are 0-2 when betting the Over for -2.2 Units / -100% ROI
  • Steelers are 2-0 when betting the Under for +2 Units / 90.91% ROI

Los Angeles Chargers: Keys to the Game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers

The Chargers were winless (0-9) when converting less than 55% of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .464.

The Chargers were 1-4 (.200) vs top 10 run offenses last season — T-4th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .424.

The Chargers were 1-4 (.200) when playing in cold weather last season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.

The Chargers are 1-4 (.200) when playing in cold weather since the 2022 season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.

Pittsburgh Steelers: Keys to the Game vs. the Los Angeles Chargers

The Steelers are 8-2 (.800) when possessing the ball longer than their opponent since the 2023 season — T-6th-best in NFL. The Chargers has allowed an average time of possession of 31 min and 19 s since the 2023 season — 4th-highest in NFL.

The Steelers are undefeated (4-0) when making 5 or more explosive passes in a game since the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .575.

The Steelers were undefeated (4-0) when making 5 or more explosive passes in a game last season — best in NFL; League Avg: .573.

The Steelers are undefeated (3-0) when passing for more than 250 yards since the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .582.

Additional Matchup Notes for Los Angeles Chargers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers have been successful on just 33.1% of plays they have ran this season — 4th-worst in NFL. The Chargers have allowed their opponents to be successful on just 29.5% of plays this season — best in NFL.

The Steelers went three and out on 45.5% of their drives last week — T-3rd-worst in NFL. The Chargers forced three and outs on 54.5% of opponent drives last week — T-best in NFL.

Steelers RBs have averaged 2.4 yards after contact per carry since the 2023 season — T-best in NFL. The Chargers have allowed 2.0 yards after contact per carry since the 2023 season — T-3rd-worst in NFL.

The Chargers have been successful on just 35.6% of plays they have ran against a stacked front since the 2023 season — 4th-worst in NFL. The Steelers have allowed their opponents to be successful on just 36.5% of plays with a stacked front since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL.

Los Angeles Chargers Offense: Important Stats

The Chargers have run successful plays on 29% of pass attempts against a stacked front since the 2022 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 50%.

The Chargers ran successful plays on 29% of pass attempts against a stacked front last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 50%.

The Chargers started 16 drives inside their own 20 yard line in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — T-most in NFL.

The Chargers started 21 drives inside their own 10 yard line last season — T-2nd-most in NFL.

Pittsburgh Steelers Offense: Important Stats

The Steelers have run successful plays on 8% of plays against a light front this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 37%.

The Steelers ran successful plays on 0% of plays in the 4th quarter in Week 2 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 38%.

The Steelers ran successful plays on 12% of plays in the 2nd half in Week 2 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 40%.

The Steelers started 21 drives inside their own 10 yard line last season — T-2nd-most in NFL.

Los Angeles Chargers Defense: Important Stats

The Chargers defense allowed successful plays on 12% of pass attempts in Week 2 — best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

The Chargers defense allowed successful plays on 14% of plays open coverage in Week 2 — best in NFL; League Avg: 59%.

The Chargers defense have allowed -0.87 epa per play with a light front this season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.07.

The Chargers defense allowed successful plays on 12% of pass attempts with a base rush in Week 2 — best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

Pittsburgh Steelers Defense: Important Stats

The Steelers defense has allowed a passer rating of just 51.0 in the red zone (80 Pass Attempts) since the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 92.5.

The Steelers defense have allowed -0.41 epa per play with a base front this season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.02.

The Steelers defense allowed a passer rating of just 51.0 in the red zone (71 Pass Attempts) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 93.0.

The Steelers defense has forced 9 turnovers in the red zone since the 2022 season — most in NFL.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.