- The Chargers are -3 point favorites vs the Texans
- Total (Over/Under): 42.5 points
- Watch this game on CBS | PAR+
The Los Angeles Chargers () visit NRG Stadium to take on the Houston Texans () on Jan. 11. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:30pm EST in Houston, TX.
The Chargers are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -3 (-105).
The Chargers vs. Texans Over/Under is 42.5 total points for the game.
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Chargers vs. Texans Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Chargers | -3 -105 | 42.5 -110 | -160 |
| Texans | +3 -115 | 42.5 -110 | +135 |
Chargers vs. Texans Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Chargers will win this game with 64.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Chargers vs Texans Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Chargers will cover the spread with 60.0% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Chargers players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Chargers Player Prop Bets Today
- Justin Herbert has hit the Interceptions Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.15 Units / 52% ROI)
- Gus Edwards has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.75 Units / 45% ROI)
- Josh Palmer has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.50 Units / 43% ROI)
- Ladd McConkey has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.70 Units / 49% ROI)
- Gus Edwards has hit the Carries Under in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.45 Units / 37% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Texans players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Texans Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Joe Mixon has hit the Carries Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 90% ROI)
- C.J. Stroud has hit the Carries Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+5.50 Units / 24% ROI)
- Dalton Schultz has hit the Receptions Under in 7 of his last 9 games at home (+5.05 Units / 46% ROI)
- Tank Dell has hit the Receptions Under in 5 of his last 6 games at home (+3.90 Units / 52% ROI)
- Joe Mixon has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 5 of his last 6 games at home (+3.85 Units / 56% ROI)
First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Texans vs Chargers
| Player Name | 1st TD Odds |
|---|---|
| Joe Mixon (HOU) | +450 |
| J.K. Dobbins (LAC) | +600 |
| Ladd McConkey (LAC) | +800 |
| Nico Collins (Hou) | +850 |
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Texans vs Chargers
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon (HOU) | 20.5 -115 | 20.5 -115 |
| Nico Collins (HOU) | 86.5 -120 | 86.5 -115 |
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Texans vs Chargers
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| CJ Stroud (HOU) | 13.5 -115 | 13.5 -115 |
| Justin Herbert (LAC) | 19.5 -110 | 19.5 -120 |
| Joe Mixon (HOU) | 70.5 -115 | 70.5 -115 |
Chargers Best Bets:
- The Los Angeles Chargers have covered the 1H Spread in 14 of their last 19 games (+9.45 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 1H Moneyline in 14 of their last 19 games (+8.80 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Chargers have covered the Spread in 13 of their last 18 games (+8.60 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Chargers have covered the 3Q Spread in 9 of their last 13 games (+5.75 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.75 Units / 18% ROI)
Texans Best Bets:
- The Houston Texans have hit the 1H Moneyline in 17 of their last 22 games (+11.60 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Houston Texans have covered the 1H Spread in 17 of their last 22 games (+11.10 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Houston Texans have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+6.75 Units / 63% ROI)
- The Houston Texans have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+6.20 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Houston Texans have covered the 2Q Spread in 13 of their last 19 games (+5.85 Units / 25% ROI)
Chargers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Chargers art 12-4 (+7.6 Units / 40.64% ROI).
- Chargers are 11-6 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.15 Units / 13.52% ROI
- Chargers are 8-9 when betting the Over for -1.9 Units / -10.16% ROI
- Chargers are 9-8 when betting the Under for +0.2 Units / ROI
Texans Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Texans are 7-8 (-1.65 Units / -8.87% ROI).
- Texans are 10-7 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.05 Units / 0.16% ROI
- Texans are 6-10 when betting the Over for -5.1 Units / -27.13% ROI
- Texans are 10-6 when betting the Under for +3.4 Units / 18.28% ROI
Los Angeles Chargers: Keys to the Game vs. the Houston Texans
The Chargers were winless (0-9) when converting less than 55% of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .464.
The Chargers are undefeated (9-0) when rushing for more than 100 yards this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .618.
The Chargers were 1-8 (.111) when not forcing a fumble last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .422.
The Chargers were winless (0-11) when trailing at the end of the third quarter last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .148.
Houston Texans: Keys to the Game vs. the Los Angeles Chargers
The Texans are undefeated (6-0) when the opposing team converts less than 55% of its red zone chances into touchdowns this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .599.
The Texans are 8-3 (.727) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays this season — 7th-best in NFL; League Avg: .565.
The Texans are 5-3 (.625) when forcing 2 or more turnovers this season — 9th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .730.
The Texans were 7-1 (.875) when possessing the ball longer than their opponent last season — T-3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: .631.
Additional Matchup Notes for Los Angeles Chargers vs. Houston Texans
The Texans have been successful on just 37.6% of plays they have run with motion this season — T-3rd-worst in NFL. The Chargers have allowed their opponents to be successful on just 40.8% of plays against motion this season — 3rd-best in NFL.
The Texans have scored just 3.9 points per Red Zone drive this season — T-5th-worst in NFL. The Chargers have allowed just 3.9 points per Red Zone drive this season — T-3rd-best in NFL.
The Texans have thrown for 8.2 yards per attempt on first down since the 2023 season — 4th-best in NFL. The Chargers have allowed 7.9 yards per dropback on first down since the 2023 season — T-2nd-worst in NFL.
The Chargers have run successful plays on just 39.2% of rush attempts since the 2023 season — 5th-worst in NFL. The Texans have allowed successful plays on just 38.6% of rush attempts since the 2023 season — T-2nd-best in NFL.
The Chargers are averaging just 3.8 yards per carry since the 2023 season — T-3rd-worst in NFL. The Texans have allowed just 4.0 yards per carry since the 2023 season — T-best in NFL.
The Chargers have an average drive start position from the 26.0 yard line since the 2023 season — 4th-worst in NFL. The Texans have allowed an average drive start position from the 25.3 yard line since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL.
Los Angeles Chargers Offense: Important Stats
The Chargers have thrown the ball 19% of the time (12 Pass Attempts/63 plays) on 3rd and short this season — 2nd-lowest in NFL; League Avg: 44%.
The Chargers ran successful plays on 29% of pass attempts against a stacked front last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 50%.
The Chargers have started 45 drives inside their own 10 yard line since the 2023 season — most in NFL.
The Chargers started 21 drives inside their own 10 yard line last season — T-2nd-most in NFL.
Houston Texans Offense: Important Stats
The Texans ran successful plays on 29% of plays against a stacked front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.
The Texans ran successful plays on 25% of rush attempts against a stacked front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.
The Texans have run successful plays on 31% of rush attempts in the 3rd quarter since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.
The Texans have run successful plays on 34% of rush attempts this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.
Los Angeles Chargers Defense: Important Stats
The Chargers defense allowed 0.64 epa per play with a light rush last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.04.
The Chargers defense has allowed a passer rating of just 57.8 with a stacked front (19 Pass Attempts) since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 111.3.
The Chargers defense allowed a passer rating of just 47.8 with a stacked front (13 Pass Attempts) last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 110.0.
The Chargers defense has allowed 18 TDs in the red zone this season — fewest in NFL.
Houston Texans Defense: Important Stats
Only 39% of the plays run against the Texans have been in their own territory this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 47%.
The Texans defense has allowed successful plays on 27% of plays with a heavy rush this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.
The Texans defense allowed a passer rating of just 64.7 in the red zone (63 Pass Attempts) last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 93.0.
Only 9% of the plays run against the Texans have been in the red zone in the 1st half since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 14%.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
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