- The Broncos are -10.5 point favorites vs the Chiefs
- Total (Over/Under): 40 points
- Watch this game on CBS
The Kansas City Chiefs (15-1-0) visit Empower Field at Mile High to take on the Denver Broncos (9-7-0) on Jan. 5. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25pm EST in Denver, CO.
The Broncos are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -10.5 (-110).
The Chiefs vs. Broncos Over/Under is 40 total points for the game.
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Chiefs vs. Broncos Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Chiefs | +10.5 -110 | 40 -110 | +400 |
| Broncos | -10.5 -110 | 40 -110 | -550 |
Chiefs vs. Broncos Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Broncos will win this game with 68.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Chiefs vs Broncos Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Chiefs will cover the spread with 69.0% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Chiefs players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Chiefs Player Prop Bets Today
- DeAndre Hopkins has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 8 away games (+8.00 Units / 88% ROI)
- Xavier Worthy has hit the Receptions Over in his last 7 games (+7.80 Units / 92% ROI)
- Xavier Worthy has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 86% ROI)
- Samaje Perine has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 85% ROI)
- Patrick Mahomes has hit the Pass Attempts Over in 13 of his last 19 games (+6.05 Units / 28% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Broncos players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Broncos Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Bo Nix has hit the TD Passes Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.60 Units / 35% ROI)
- Javonte Williams has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.30 Units / 32% ROI)
- Bo Nix has hit the Passing Yards Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.25 Units / 35% ROI)
- Javonte Williams has hit the Carries Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 85% ROI)
- Javonte Williams has hit the Receptions Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+5.65 Units / 69% ROI)
Chiefs Best Bets:
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.05 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have covered the 2Q Spread in 13 of their last 19 games (+5.85 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 8 of their last 11 away games (+4.70 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 13 of their last 22 games (+4.00 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 22 games (+2.50 Units / 7% ROI)
Broncos Best Bets:
- The Denver Broncos have covered the Spread in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.55 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Denver Broncos have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 20 games (+7.40 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Denver Broncos have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.05 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Denver Broncos have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.65 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Denver Broncos have hit the Team Total Over in 14 of their last 20 games (+6.50 Units / 25% ROI)
Chiefs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Chiefs art 7-8 (-1.65 Units / -9.51% ROI).
- Chiefs are 15-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +14.2 Units / 30.6% ROI
- Chiefs are 7-9 when betting the Over for -2.9 Units / -16.48% ROI
- Chiefs are 9-7 when betting the Under for +1.3 Units / ROI
Broncos Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Broncos are 11-5 (+5.55 Units / 31.53% ROI).
- Broncos are 9-7 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.35 Units / 19.42% ROI
- Broncos are 10-5 when betting the Over for +4.5 Units / 25.57% ROI
- Broncos are 5-10 when betting the Under for -6 Units / -34.09% ROI
Kansas City Chiefs: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Broncos
The Chiefs are undefeated (5-0) when not forcing a turnover this season — best in NFL; League Avg: .284.
The Chiefs are 14-5 (.737) when rushing less than 25 times since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .274.
The Chiefs are undefeated (9-0) when within 7 points at the two minute warning this season — best in NFL; League Avg: .500.
The Chiefs are undefeated (12-0) when not throwing an interception since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .637.
Denver Broncos: Keys to the Game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs
The Broncos are 4-1 (.800) when passing for more than 250 yards this season — T-7th-best in NFL; League Avg: .579.
The Broncos were 3-5 (.375) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team last season — 8th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.
The Broncos were winless (0-6) when committing 2 or more turnovers last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .293.
The Broncos are 6-2 (.750) when making 7 or more explosive plays this season — 7th-best in NFL; League Avg: .596.
Additional Matchup Notes for Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos
The Broncos have run successful plays on just 42.9% of pass attempts with motion since the 2023 season — 4th-worst in NFL. The Chiefs have allowed successful plays on just 43.1% of pass attempts against motion since the 2023 season — 4th-best in NFL.
The Broncos have run successful plays on just 39.6% of pass attempts with motion this season — 4th-worst in NFL. The Chiefs have pressured opposing QBs on 29.1% of pass attempts against motion this season — 2nd-best in NFL.
The Broncos have run successful plays on just 35.4% of pass attempts against a light rush since the 2023 season — 5th-worst in NFL. The Chiefs have pressured opposing QBs on 36.7% of pass attempts with a light rush since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL.
The Chiefs have been successful on 56.1% of plays they have run on play action passes since the 2023 season — 4th-best in NFL. The Broncos have allowed their opponents to be successful on 51.1% of plays on play action passes since the 2023 season — 4th-worst in NFL.
The Chiefs have a third down conversion rate of 25.9% on 3rd and 10+ YTG this season — 2nd-best in NFL. The Broncos defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 23.3% on 3rd and 10+ YTG this season — 4th-worst in NFL.
The Chiefs are averaging just 3.7 yards per carry this season — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Broncos have allowed just 4.1 yards per carry this season — 3rd-best in NFL.
Kansas City Chiefs Offense: Important Stats
The Chiefs averaged -0.75 epa per play against tight coverage last season — T-2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.52.
The Chiefs ran successful plays on 67% of plays against a heavy rush last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 41%.
The Chiefs ran successful plays on 68% of pass attempts against a heavy rush last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 45%.
The Chiefs have averaged -0.68 epa per play against tight coverage since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.47.
Denver Broncos Offense: Important Stats
The Broncos targeted RBs 29% of the time (150 Pass Attempts/513 plays) last season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 17%.
The Broncos have targeted RBs 24% of the time (251 Pass Attempts/1,054 plays) since the 2023 season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 17%.
The Broncos have averaged just 5.5 yards per play against a light front this season — 4th-worst in NFL; League Avg: 6.4.
The Broncos have run successful plays on 41% of pass attempts in the 1st quarter this season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: 48%.
Kansas City Chiefs Defense: Important Stats
The Chiefs defense have allowed -0.31 epa per play with a base rush since Week 14 — best in NFL; League Avg: 0.05.
The Chiefs defense allowed a third down conversion rate of 3% on third and 10+ yards to go last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 17%.
The Chiefs defense allowed just 4.5 yards per dropback (675 yards/150 attempts) when targeted at a depth of 1-5 yards last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 5.5.
The Chiefs defense has allowed just 16.9 points per game to opposing offenses (559 points / 33 games) since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 21.3.
Denver Broncos Defense: Important Stats
The Broncos defense allowed a passer rating of 135.6 against play action passes (123 Pass Attempts) last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 101.1.
The Broncos defense have allowed -0.21 epa per play with a light front this season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.00.
The Broncos defense have allowed -0.11 epa per play against play action passes this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 0.08.
The Broncos defense has allowed successful plays on 38% of plays on motion plays this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
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