Chiefs vs Buccaneers Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 4

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 30, 2022, 11:05 AM
  • The Chiefs (2-1) are -1 point favorites vs the Buccaneers (2-1)
  • Total (Over/Under): 45 points
  • Watch the game on NBC

The Kansas City Chiefs (2-1) visit Raymond James Stadium to take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1) on Oct. 2. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:20pm EDT in Tampa.

The Chiefs are betting favorites in Week 4, with the spread sitting at -1 (-110).

The Chiefs vs. Buccaneers Over/Under is 45 total points for the game.

Bet now on Buccaneers vs Chiefs & all NFL games with BetMGM

Chiefs vs. Buccaneers Odds, Spread, Over/Under Week 4

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Chiefs-1 -11045 -110-120
Buccaneers +1 -11045 -110+100

Chiefs vs. Buccaneers Prediction for Week 4

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Chiefs will win this Week 4 game with 57.0% confidence.

Chiefs vs Buccaneers Spread Prediction for Week 4

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Buccaneers will cover the spread this Week 4 with 56.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Chiefs and Buccaneers, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Best Chiefs Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Chiefs players for Week 4, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Patrick Mahomes has hit the Passing Yards Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+6.70 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Mecole Hardman has hit the Receptions Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.00 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Marquez Valdes-Scantling has hit the Receptions Over in his last 5 away games (+5.30 Units / 81% ROI)
  • Patrick Mahomes has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 7 of his last 9 away games (+4.80 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Clyde Edwards-Helaire has hit the Carries Under in 7 of his last 9 games (+4.65 Units / 40% ROI)

Best Buccaneers Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Buccaneers players for Week 4, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Cole Beasley has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 77% ROI)
  • Mike Evans has hit the Receptions Over in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+5.85 Units / 62% ROI)
  • Mike Evans has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+5.80 Units / 61% ROI)
  • Cole Beasley has hit the Receptions Under in his last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 71% ROI)
  • Russell Gage has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+4.35 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 16 games (+8.00 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have covered the 1H Spread in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.50 Units / 39% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have covered the 1Q Spread in 11 of their last 16 games (+6.05 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have scored first in 14 of their last 19 games (+6.00 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 2H Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 away games (+4.90 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 15 games (+9.65 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have covered the 2H Spread in 11 of their last 13 games (+8.80 Units / 61% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have covered the 3Q Spread in 10 of their last 13 games (+7.75 Units / 55% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in their last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 91% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 2H Moneyline in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.90 Units / 17% ROI)

Chiefs Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Chiefs have gone 1-2 (-1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI).

  • Chiefs are 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.3 Units / -4.35% ROI
  • Chiefs are 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
  • Chiefs are 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / ROI

Buccaneers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Buccaneers have gone 2-1 (+0.9 Units / 27.69% ROI).

  • Buccaneers are 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.75 Units / 18.52% ROI
  • Buccaneers are 0-3 when betting the Over for -3.3 Units / -100% ROI
  • Buccaneers are 3-0 when betting the Under for +3 Units / 90.91% ROI

Kansas City Chiefs: Keys to the Game vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Chiefs are 2-2 (.500) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2021 season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .177.

The Chiefs are 6-4 (.600) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2020 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .187.

The Chiefs are 5-1 (.833) when passing for more than 300 yards since the 2021 season — 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: .560.

The Chiefs were 5-1 (.833) vs top 10 pass defenses last season — tied for 4th-best in NFL; League Avg: .471.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Keys to the Game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs

The Buccaneers were undefeated (6-0) vs top 10 pass defenses last season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .471.

The Buccaneers are undefeated (9-0) when leading at the end of first quarter since the 2021 season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .690.

The Buccaneers are 10-2 (.833) when playing in warm weather since the 2021 season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .492.

The Buccaneers are 10-3 (.769) when passing for more than 250 yards since the 2021 season — tied for 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: .531.

Additional Matchup Notes for Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Buccaneers have run successful plays on just 11.1% of pass attempts when their QB was under pressure this season — fourth-worst in NFL. The Chiefs have pressured opposing QBs on 35.0% of passing plays this season — third-best in NFL.

The Buccaneers have run successful plays on 47.8% of rush attempts since the 2021 season — fourth-best in NFL. Chiefs have allowed successful plays on 50.0% of rush attempts since the 2021 season — second-worst in NFL.

The Buccaneers have been successful on 47.8% of plays they have run since the 2021 season — second-best in NFL. Chiefs have allowed their opponents to be successful on 46.4% of plays since the 2021 season — fourth-worst in NFL.

The Chiefs ran successful plays on just 30.4% of rush attempts last week — fourth-worst in NFL. Buccaneers allowed successful plays on just 20.8% of rush attempts in Week 3 — second-best in NFL.

Chiefs TEs have 22 receptions in 3 games (7.3 per game) this season — second-best in NFL. The Buccaneers have allowed 6.3 receptions per game to TEs this season — tied for fourth-worst in NFL.

Chiefs TEs have averaged 11.0 targets per game this season — second-highest in NFL. The Buccaneers have allowed 6.3 receptions per game to TEs this season — tied for fourth-worst in NFL.

Kansas City Chiefs Offense: Important Stats for Week 4

The Chiefs had a third down conversion rate of 53% last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

The Chiefs have converted first downs on 16 of 38 plays (42%) on plays when their QB has been pressured this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

The Chiefs ran successful plays on 54% of pass attempts last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.

The Chiefs have a third down conversion rate of 51% since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 40%.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Offense: Important Stats for Week 4

The Buccaneers have allowed opponents to pressure their QB on 12% of pass attempts since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 25%.

The Buccaneers have not recorded a TD in 16 drives in the 1st half this season — tied for worst Drives Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 5.0.

The Buccaneers have started 32 drives inside opposing territory since the 2021 season — most in NFL.

The Buccaneers threw the ball 77% of the time (108 Pass Attempts/140 plays) on second and 4-7 yards to go last season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 53%.

Kansas City Chiefs Defense: Important Stats for Week 4

The Chiefs defense allowed successful plays on 51% of rush attempts last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

Offenses facing the Chiefs targeted WRs 49% of the time (60 Pass Attempts/123 plays) this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 58%.

The Chiefs defense has not allowed a third down conversion on third and 10+ yards to go this season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: 19%.

The Chiefs defense allowed successful plays on 56% of rush attempts in the 4th quarter last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Defense: Important Stats for Week 4

The Buccaneers defense has forced 4 fumbles this season — tied for 2nd-most in NFL.

The Buccaneers defense has allowed scores on 21% of opponent drives in the 4th quarter since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 36%.

The Buccaneers defense has blitzed 354 times since the 2021 season — most in NFL.

The Buccaneers defense has blitzed on 28% of plays since the 2021 season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 15%.

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.