- The Chiefs are -1.5 favorites against the Dolphins.
- Patrick Mahomes lost his first divisional road game in Week 8.
- The Dolphins have lost two straight games away from Miami.
It’s the latest edition of the NFL’s international series, and I’m set to provide a Chiefs vs. Dolphins prediction.
The Chiefs are coming off a disappointing effort in Week 8. Against the Broncos in Denver, Patrick Mahomes suffered the first road loss of his career against a divisional opponent.
The Dolphins, meanwhile, blitzed the Patriots 31-17 in Miami to easily cover as home favorites. With the win, Miami enters Week 9 winners in three of their last four.
Here’s a look at the NFL betting lines for Sunday’s game, as well as my bets for the contest.
Chiefs vs. Dolphins Betting Odds
- Kansas City Chiefs Moneyline: -125
- Miami Dolphins Moneyline: +105
- Game Spread: Kansas City Chiefs -1.5 (-110)
- Game Total: 50.5 Points
Chiefs vs. Dolphins Predictions
Kansas City Chiefs Spread (-1.5) vs. Miami Dolphins
The Chiefs looked uncharacteristically bad in Denver, but I’m not about to overreact.
Truthfully, this matchup is about the defenses.
Kansas City’s defense has flown under the radar this season. Entering this contest, they rank fifth in defensive DVOA, per ftnfantasy.com.
As for Miami, they ranked 24th in defensive DVOA through Week 7 and looked less-than-impressive against the Patriots.
If Miami’s prolific offense struggles in Germany, I question how their defense does enough to limit the Chiefs.
Lastly, Patrick Mahomes excels against the spread when he’s a short favorite. On 10 occasions where Mahomes closed between -3 and a PK, he’s 7-3 ATS.
Lay the points with Kansas City.
Rashee Rice Under 45.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Rice has cleared this number in three straight games, rendering this a perfect sell-high spot.
Even more encouraging for bettors is the drastic change in quality between Rice’s last three opponents and the Dolphins.
Per PFF, the Dolphins are eighth in coverage grade. They also just returned Jalen Ramsey from injury to bolster their pass defense.
Rice has faced the Broncos twice and the Chargers in his last three games. Currently, Denver sits 30th in coverage grade, while the Chargers rank 20th.
Rice has played three teams with a coverage grade of 10th or better this season and has failed to surpass 35 yards in all three.
Take the under on his receiving yards prop accordingly.
Jaylen Waddle Anytime Touchdown (+155) vs. Chiefs
The number on Tyreek Hill (-115) feels like a trap, but I want to fade the Chiefs’ pass defense.
Kansas City excels at defending top wideouts, but they tend to struggle elsewhere.
Entering this game, the Chiefs are third in pass defense DVOA against WR1’s compared to 24th against WR2’s, per ftnfantasy.com.
Enter Waddle, who’s scored a touchdown in three of his last four games. He’s also seen an uptick in targets, going from 5.33 in Weeks 1-4 to 9.25 in Weeks 5-8.
The Chiefs have also allowed a healthy majority of touchdowns through the air. Of the 13 touchdowns their defense has surrendered, 11 have come via the pass.
As a result, back Waddle to find the endzone this week for the second straight game.
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