Chiefs vs Raiders Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 8

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(AP Photo/Jeff Lewis)

BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 24, 2024, 4:18 PM

The Chiefs are -10 point favorites vs the Raiders
Total (Over/Under): 41.5 points
Watch this game on CBS

The Kansas City Chiefs (6-0-0) visit Allegiant Stadium to take on the Las Vegas Raiders (2-5-0) on Oct. 27. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25pm EDT in Paradise, NV.

The Chiefs are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -9.5 (-115).

The Chiefs vs. Raiders Over/Under is 41.5 total points for the game.

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Chiefs vs. Raiders Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Chiefs	-9.5 -115	41.5 -110	-500
Raiders	+9.5 -105	41.5 -110	+375

Chiefs vs. Raiders Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Chiefs will win this game with 71.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Chiefs vs Raiders Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Chiefs will cover the spread with 55.9% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Chiefs players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Chiefs Player Prop Bets Today

Travis Kelce has hit the Receptions Under in 14 of his last 18 games (+10.60 Units / 50% ROI)
Patrick Mahomes has hit the TD Passes Under in 12 of his last 18 games (+7.20 Units / 32% ROI)
Patrick Mahomes has hit the Passing Yards Under in 13 of his last 18 games (+6.85 Units / 30% ROI)
Xavier Worthy has hit the Receptions Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 67% ROI)
Isiah Pacheco has hit the Carries Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.90 Units / 43% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Raiders players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Raiders Player Prop Best Bets Today

Aidan O’Connell has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.80 Units / 61% ROI)
Gardner Minshew has hit the Passing Yards Under in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+4.80 Units / 58% ROI)
Alexander Mattison has hit the Carries Under in 5 of his last 6 games at home (+4.00 Units / 53% ROI)
Aidan O’Connell has hit the Interceptions Under in 7 of his last 11 games (+3.50 Units / 30% ROI)
Aidan O’Connell has hit the TD Passes Over in 5 of his last 7 games at home (+3.35 Units / 30% ROI)

Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Raiders vs Chiefs

Player Name	Over	Under
Xavier Worthy (KC)	37.5 -110	37.5 -120
Travis Kelce (KC)	61.5 -115	61.5 -115
Noah Gray (KC)	23.5 -120	23.5 -110
Justin Watson (KC)	18.5 -115	18.5 -115

Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Raiders vs Chiefs

Player Name	Over	Under
Patrick Mahomes (KC)	18.5 -120	18.5 -110

Chiefs Best Bets:

The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 14 of their last 18 games (+9.55 Units / 46% ROI)
The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 13 of their last 21 games (+5.30 Units / 23% ROI)
The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 away games (+2.95 Units / 12% ROI)
The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 18 games (+2.85 Units / 14% ROI)
The Kansas City Chiefs have covered the Spread in 6 of their last 11 away games (+2.80 Units / 23% ROI)

Raiders Best Bets:

The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 20 games (+7.15 Units / 30% ROI)
The Las Vegas Raiders have scored first in 5 of their last 7 games (+4.90 Units / 62% ROI)
The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games at home (+4.65 Units / 37% ROI)
The Las Vegas Raiders have covered the 1Q Spread in 12 of their last 20 games (+3.45 Units / 13% ROI)
The Las Vegas Raiders have covered the 1H Spread in 12 of their last 20 games (+2.85 Units / 13% ROI)

Chiefs Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Chiefs art 4-1 (+2.9 Units / 44.96% ROI).

Chiefs are 6-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.2 Units / 50% ROI
Chiefs are 2-4 when betting the Over for -2.4 Units / -36.36% ROI
Chiefs are 4-2 when betting the Under for +1.8 Units / ROI

Raiders Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Raiders are 3-4 (-1.55 Units / -19.62% ROI).

Raiders are 2-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.6 Units / -18.82% ROI
Raiders are 4-3 when betting the Over for +0.7 Units / 9.09% ROI
Raiders are 3-4 when betting the Under for -1.4 Units / -18.18% ROI

Kansas City Chiefs: Keys to the Game vs. the Las Vegas Raiders

The Chiefs are 10-4 (.714) when rushing less than 25 times since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .269.

The Chiefs are 14-4 (.778) when forcing 1 or more turnovers since the 2023 season — 4th-best in NFL. The Raiders have turned the ball over 41 times since the 2023 season — T-3rd-most in NFL.

Las Vegas Raiders: Keys to the Game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs

The Raiders are winless (0-6) when tied at the end of quarter 1 since the 2023 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.

The Raiders are undefeated (4-0) when making 3 or more explosive runs in a game since the 2023 season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .608.

Additional Matchup Notes for Kansas City Chiefs vs. Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders have averaged just -0.63 epa per play against tight coverage since the 2023 season — T-4th-worst in NFL. The Chiefs have allowed just -0.72 epa per play with tight coverage since the 2023 season — best in NFL.

The Raiders had a third down conversion rate of just 20.0% last week — T-4th-worst in NFL. The Chiefs defense allowed a third down conversion rate of just 18.2% last week — 3rd-best in NFL.

The Raiders have averaged just -0.13 epa per play against a base front since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Chiefs have allowed just -0.08 epa per play with a base front since the 2023 season — T-4th-best in NFL.

The Chiefs have run successful plays on 70.0% of pass attempts on play action passes this season — best in NFL. The Raiders have allowed successful plays on 64.7% of pass attempts on play action passes this season — 4th-worst in NFL.

The Chiefs have run successful plays on 59.0% of rush attempts against a light front since the 2023 season — 4th-best in NFL. The Raiders have allowed successful plays on 53.2% of rush attempts with a light front since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst in NFL.

The Chiefs have run successful plays on 68.8% of pass attempts against a heavy rush since the 2023 season — best in NFL. The Raiders have pressured opposing QBs on 28.1% of pass attempts with a heavy rush since the 2023 season — 5th-worst in NFL.

Kansas City Chiefs Offense: Important Stats

The Chiefs have run successful plays on 69% of pass attempts against a heavy rush since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

The Chiefs have averaged -0.88 epa per play against tight coverage since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.50.

The Chiefs have run successful plays on 68% of plays against a heavy rush since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

The Chiefs have averaged -1.25 epa per play against tight coverage this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.44.

Las Vegas Raiders Offense: Important Stats

The Raiders have averaged -1.06 epa per play against a stacked front this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.06.

The Raiders faced a blitz 24 times in Week 7 — most in NFL.

The Raiders averaged -0.75 epa per play against tight coverage last season — T-2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.52.

The Raiders have run successful plays on 9% of plays against a stacked front this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 47%.

Kansas City Chiefs Defense: Important Stats

The Chiefs defense have allowed -0.86 epa per play with a stacked front this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 0.06.

The Chiefs defense has allowed successful plays on 11% of plays with tight coverage since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 21%.

Las Vegas Raiders Defense: Important Stats

The Raiders defense have allowed 39 broken tackles this season — most in NFL.

The Raiders defense has missed 76 tackles this season — most in NFL.

The Raiders defense has allowed a passer rating of just 18.8 on contested throws (20 Pass Attempts) this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 70.6.

The Raiders defense has allowed a passer rating of just 32.5 on contested throws (95 Pass Attempts) since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 65.9.

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